By Alexander Ward, Paul McLeary, Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil

To date, President Joe Biden has enjoyed a largely like-minded Congress on Ukraine. | Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP Photo

With help from Lara Seligman and Maggie Miller

Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt

President JOE BIDEN faces a tricky political future as his support for Ukraine clashes with battlefield realities and souring congressional attitudes — complicating his policy and political messaging as the 2024 campaign heats up.

Ukraine’s counteroffensive is going slowly, more slowly than anyone in Kyiv and Washington expected. Ukraine’s earlier Military successes led to soaring expectations, but the minefields, tough terrain, vast geography, dug-in Russians and an inability to fight combined-arms warfare at scale has bedeviled the operation.

Now add this to that backdrop: As soon as this week, per Punchbowl News, the administration could ask Congress to replenish aid for Ukraine to the tune of more than $10 billion. House Republicans aren’t a lock to approve it, as Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY is loath blow past agreed-to spending caps and 70 hard-right members voted last month to end funds for Kyiv — a measure that overall failed.

To date, Biden has enjoyed a largely like-minded Congress on Ukraine. There’s still a bipartisan consensus that backs Kyiv, but it’s eroding more and more, and a counteroffensive that doesn't produce clear, dramatic gains might lower the number of “yes” votes.

Rep. DON BACON (R-Neb.), at least, is for further aid to Ukraine. “We still have quite a bit of money that we’ve appropriated but have not spent,” he told us, noting he hasn’t heard of another request coming in. “In general, I want to help Ukraine prevail. It’s in our national security interests for an independent and sovereign Ukraine.”

A senior administration official, who wasn’t authorized to speak on the record, said of the supplemental: “We’re confident we can get it to the president’s desk.”

As for the counteroffensive, the official said “it’s too early to draw any formal conclusions and make any predictions, and it’s too early to judge how far they can get.”

Rep. JASON CROW (D-Colo.), an Army veteran and HASC member, noted that Ukraine switched tactics from its more aggressive approach to a more methodical one to protect its troops, which inevitably leads to a slower assault. The Ukrainians are “preserving their force” and “doing this the right way,” he said.

The hulking armored vehicles the U.S. and others have sent have only proven partly effective in trying to punch through the minefields planted by Russian troops. One major issue is that once Ukrainian troops clear one minefield and advance, Russian forces use artillery and helicopters to scatter mines behind them, in effect trapping some units which are then targeted.

Ukrainian forces have pleaded for more short-range air defense they can use at the front to knock down those shells and protect against Russian helicopters that can patrol the front with impunity. But defenses have been slow to arrive, which has also contributed to the slow pace of advances.

There are signs that Ukraine's allies and partners are taking all of this into account, and are planning for the long haul. Major defense firms from the U.S., Germany, Czech Republic and others are building maintenance facilities for the long-term repair of weapons and armored vehicles and tanks donated to Kyiv. The first shops are being built in Poland, with plans to establish more permanent depots inside Ukraine next year.

A message from Lockheed Martin:

Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.

Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more.

MORE UKRAINE AID: The Biden administration is set to announce on Wednesday another $200 million in aid for Ukraine, including additional artillery ammunition, Javelin and TOW missiles, Patriot munitions, 37 tactical vehicles, and over 12 million rounds of small arms ammunition and grenades, a DOD official not authorized to speak on the record tells our own LARA SELIGMAN.

The money for the latest weapons was freed up by an “accounting error” that led Pentagon officials to overvalue equipment shipped to Kyiv by $6.2 billion, the official said. The package was first reported by Reuters.

The Pentagon announced the error in May, explaining that officials had mistakenly counted the value of replacing the weapons instead of the weapons’ value when purchased. That error resulted in the overvaluation, which DOD can now use to send additional equipment — which has technically already been paid for — to Ukraine.

FAIR GAME: Russian ports and ships on the Black Sea — including tankers carrying millions of barrels of oil to Europe — could justifiably be attacked by the Ukrainian military as part of efforts to weaken Moscow's war machine, a top Ukrainian official told our own GABRIEL GAVIN.

"Everything the Russians are moving back and forth on the Black Sea are our valid military targets," said OLEG USTENKO, an economic adviser to Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY.

That would be retaliation over Russia withdrawing from the U.N.-brokered Black Sea grain deal and unleashing a series of missile attacks on agricultural stores and ports. Moscow’s missile attacks continued overnight, with a strike killing seven people in the eastern Donetsk region, our own NICOLAS CAMUT reports.

The escalatory rhetoric comes days after leaders from dozens of countries, including China, met in Saudi Arabia to discuss how the war could come to an end. Despite China’s participation, “Moscow and Beijing have identical or largely concurring approaches towards international affairs,” Russia’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement following a call with Chinese officials after the meeting, per the Wall Street Journal’s CHUN HAN WONG.

NIGER REBUFFS DIPLOMACY: The leaders of Niger’s junta denied entry to a diplomatic mission from the U.N., African Union and Economic Community of West African States, according to Reuters' BOUREIMA BALIMA and ABDEL-KADER MAZOU.

The rejection follows the junta’s decision Monday to bar acting U.S. Deputy Secretary of State VICTORIA NULAND from meeting with ousted Nigerien President MOHAMED BAZOUM or coup leader ABDOURAHAMANE TIANI during her visit to Niamey, the country’s capital, according to the Associated Press.

The series of snubs from the junta casts a sour note ahead of a gathering of ECOWAS leaders in Abuja, Nigeria on Thursday. The bloc is expected to discuss next steps, including a possible ECOWAS-led military intervention, after its deadline for the junta to restore Bazoum expired Sunday.

ETHIOPIA AID RESUMES: The World Food Programme is gradually resuming its food aid initiative in Ethiopia, according to AP’s CARA ANNA. The WFP suspended distributions back in June after a massive grain theft and resale scheme was discovered in the country’s northern Tigray region. Some 20 million Ethiopians, one-sixth of the country’s population, were impacted by the suspension. USAID, which also suspended its distribution scheme in June, will not restart its program.

IT’S TUESDAY. Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at [email protected] and [email protected], and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33.

While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @JGedeon1 and @ebazaileimil.

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

CHRISTIE’S CRYSTAL BALL: If the United States doesn’t continue to offer its full-fledged support for Ukraine, former New Jersey Gov. CHRIS CHRISTIE predicted that American troops will be fighting a war in Taiwan.

“If we cut and run on Ukraine, the next fight is going to be in Taiwan. And there, it's not going to be us just supplying weapons,” Christie, who’s running for the GOP presidential ticket, said on MSNBC today. “It's going to be American men and women who are going to be sent three-quarters of the way around the world to fight there.”

Christie advocated for providing Ukraine with F-16s and other military aid it needs to win the war. But if continued Western aid still doesn’t cause Kyiv to take back its land, the country may have to accept some territorial losses to end the fighting, he said.

CYBERATTACK REJECTED: The Ukrainian government recently blocked a “long-term” attempt by a prolific Russian government hacking group to compromise Kyiv’s military networks, our own MAGGIE MILLER reports (for Pros!).

The hacking effort was aimed at compromising Android devices used by Ukrainian military personnel in order to gather intelligence, according to a report from Ukraine’s Security Service. The agency identified almost a dozen malware samples used in the incident, and it concluded that part of the effort involved capturing the devices of Ukrainian military personnel found on the battlefield.

The agency blamed the attack on Sandworm, a hacking group operated by the GRU, Russia’s military intelligence agency. Sandworm was previously linked to a 2015 cyberattack on Ukraine’s power grid that temporarily turned out the lights in the middle of winter, and to a similar attack on Ukrainian power stations last year. The group was also tied to cyberattacks on the 2018 Winter Olympics and interference in the 2017 French presidential election.

HELPING HAND FOR JAPAN: It’s essential that the Japanese have secure networks in order to support the mobility of U.S. troops stationed there, experts said after reports that China had hacked Japan’s defense networks.

In 2020, the National Security Agency discovered that Chinese hackers had breached sensitive Japanese defense networks, the Washington Post’s ELLEN NAKASHIMA reported Monday. The hack involved the Chinese gaining persistent access to the networks to understand Japan’s military capabilities, and according to U.S. and Japanese officials interviewed by the Post, not enough has been done to ensure the networks are not breached again.

“The administration needs to double down on its cyber assistance and information-sharing efforts with Japan to accelerate the Japanese ability to protect their networks from attacks like these,” MARK MONTGOMERY, director of CSC 2.0 — the successor group to the Cyberspace Solarium Commission, a congressionally established group tasked with identifying ways to defend the U.S. in cyberspace — told our friends at Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!). He stressed though that the U.S. is “just as vulnerable as Japan to the Chinese cyber threat.”

HITTING YOUR INBOX AUGUST 14—CALIFORNIA CLIMATE: Climate change isn’t just about the weather. It's also about how we do business and create new policies, especially in California. So we have something cool for you: A brand-new California Climate newsletter. It's not just climate or science chat, it's your daily cheat sheet to understanding how the legislative landscape around climate change is shaking up industries across the Golden State. Cut through the jargon and get the latest developments in California as lawmakers and industry leaders adapt to the changing climate. Subscribe now to California Climate to keep up with the changes.

NOT IN OUR DRONES: India has barred military drone producers from using Chinese components due to security concerns, Reuters’ KRISHN KAUSHIK and JOE CASH report.

Indian security officials worry Chinese parts including cameras, radio transmissions and operating software could compromise intelligence gathering, four defense and industry officials told Reuters.

NOMENTUM: The House GOP-led effort to impeach Homeland Security Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS is losing steam, our own JORDAIN CARNEY reports.

“Centrist Republicans were never quite sold on impeaching the secretary over problems at the border, nor aligned with their colleagues’ belief that Mayorkas lied to lawmakers at a committee hearing. Now, some of the most vocal Republicans pushing to remove him are acknowledging they’re finding GOP skeptics virtually immovable,” she writes.

Even Speaker McCarthy is no longer as gung-ho about it. “The only time you use impeachment is if someone has done something that rises to impeachment,” he told POLITICO, noting that committees are still investigating Mayorkas.

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — FLAG OFFICERS BASH COACH (AGAIN): Over 60 flag officers have signed an open letter bashing Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE’s (R-Ala.) ongoing hold on military promotions, saying the blockade is “threatening military retention” and poses a “national security risk.”

“These vacancies will deprive our Armed Forces of leadership, adversely affecting readiness and morale. At a time when we face urgent and increasing threats from foreign adversaries, we cannot afford to undercut our military’s ability to protect our security interests,” the group of generals, admirals and ambassadors said in their letter today.

Among the notable signatories of the letter: Former CIA Director MICHAEL HAYDEN, Vice Admiral MICHAEL FRANKEN, and former Air Force Vice Chief of Staff LARRY O. SPENCER.

The flag officers are not the only ones criticizing Tuberville today. As our own CHRISTINE MUI reports, former U.N. Ambassador and Republican presidential candidate NIKKI HALEY voiced her opposition to the Pentagon abortion travel policy Tuberville is protesting, while noting her disagreements with Coach’s tactics.

“I appreciate what Tuberville’s trying to do. I do. Like it’s totally wrong that the Department of Defense is doing this. But have we gotten so low that this is how we have to go about stopping it?” Haley told radio host HUGH HEWITT.

— Former NSC cyber director STEVE KELLY is joining the Institute for Security and Technology as its first chief trust officer.

— JAY McGUIRE is joining Hypergiant as chief of staff. He was previously the director of Army Futures Command and a senior manager at Optiv.

— FREDRIK WESSLAU, POLITICO: Putin’s world is shrinking

— Cdr. KELSEY BARRION, Proceedings: The elephant in the engine room

— ZEKE CLAYSON, FRANK SPELLMAN, SHIV PATEL and DAN SHEN, War On The Rocks: Space mission authorization: enabling the final frontier

— Washington Post Live, 11 a.m.: Putin and the war in Ukraine.

— The Government Executive Media Group, 1 p.m.: The road to FedRAMP: achieving code to cloud security for the U.S. government.

Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, who always faces a tricky future with us.

We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, whose future is assured.

A message from Lockheed Martin:

Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.

Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more.

Follow us on Twitter

Follow us

To change your alert settings, please log in at https://www.politico.com/_login?base=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.politico.com/settings

This email was sent to [email protected] by: POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA

Please click here and follow the steps to unsubscribe.