By Eugene Daniels, Rachael Bade and Ryan Lizza

Presented by The U.S. Chamber of Commerce

With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

If voters approve the Republican-backed measure in Ohio, any future constitutional amendment in the state would require 60 percent approval instead of a bare majority. | Michael Conroy/AP Photo

HE’S IN — “Mike Pence qualifies for first GOP debate,” by Zach Montellaro and Adam Wren

WEATHER REPORT — “Thousands of flight cancellations, 1.1 million lose power as strong storms hit eastern U.S.,” by AP’s Ashraf Khalil and Jeffrey Collins

ABORTION (SORTA) ON THE BALLOT — It’s Tuesday in August, and that means it’s … Election Day? It is in Ohio, anyway, where more than 500,000 voters have already cast ballots on a single constitutional question, known as Issue 1.

If voters approve the Republican-backed measure, any future constitutional amendment would require 60 percent approval instead of a bare majority and would be subject to a tougher process to get on the ballot in the first place.

The details are weedsy but the stakes are plain: It would go into effect immediately if approved — ahead of a November referendum on abortion rights — making today’s vote the latest skirmish in America’s battle over abortion access.

In short, passing Issue 1 would make it much harder for voters to enshrine abortion rights in the Ohio constitution and override the state legislature’s vote to ban most abortions after six weeks of pregnancy.

And so tens of millions of dollars have poured into the state in recent weeks, as our colleagues Madison Fernandez and Alice Miranda Ollstein write, funding “door-knocking, phone banking and multimillion-dollar ad campaigns” on both sides of the abortion debate.

The messaging: “Much of the advertising from the pro-Issue 1 side has focused on the divisive issue of parental consent for minors’ abortions, claiming that such requirements would be scrapped if the August initiative doesn’t pass,” Madison and Alice write. “Meanwhile, messaging from abortion-rights groups working against Issue 1 echoes what groups successfully deployed in Kansas, Kentucky and other GOP-controlled states that held abortion referendums last year: That people’s right to make personal medical decisions free from government interference is in jeopardy.”

The context: FiveThirtyEight’s Nathaniel Rakich notes that Issue 1 is “part of a widespread pattern of Republicans making it harder to get initiatives on the ballot in the first place. Since 2017, at least 16 states … have proposed increasing the number of signatures needed to qualify a ballot initiative or, like Issue 1, adding new requirements that those signatures come from specific jurisdictions, like counties or congressional districts.”

The sitrep: Turnout so far is very, very high — especially considering the election’s narrow scope and unusual timing. Through Friday, more than 578,000 ballots had been cast. “For comparison, about 288,700 people voted early for the May 2022 primary election, which featured highly contested races for governor and U.S. Senate,” the Columbus Dispatch’s Lily Carey writes. “And in last August's primaries, just under 143,000 voted early.”

More from the Dispatch: “Rural counties with smaller populations saw shorter lines to vote on Saturday and Sunday. Yet in Ohio's larger counties, lines stretched out the door as voters waited in 90-degree heat to cast their ballot.” A caveat: Those longer lines in more urban — and more Democratic counties — could be misleading, since under Ohio law each county can have only one early voting site regardless of population. And don’t forget the GOP shift away from early and mail voting since 2020, likely making today’s in-person vote disproportionately conservative.

The potential impacts …

— The 2024 Senate race: Incumbent Democrat SHERROD BROWN faces a tough fight to keep his seat, but it could be made easier by running against a Republican Party that has not only gone hard-right on abortion but has also moved to tamp down voters’ ability to speak through the ballot.

Much could depend on whom Republicans nominate. The three most prominent candidates – businessman BERNIE MORENO, former state Sen. MATT DOLAN and Secretary of State FRANK LaROSE — are all supporting Issue 1. But, as NBC’s Henry J. Gomez wrote this weekend, it’s LaRose who has made the ballot fight the centerpiece of his campaign.

While many Republicans have tried to message the effort as an attempt to frustrate monied outside groups, LaRose has gone ahead and said the quiet part out loud in a bid to woo conservative voters: “This is 100% about keeping a radical pro-abortion amendment out of our constitution,” he said at a Lincoln Day dinner in June.

— The 2024 presidential race: No, Issue 1’s rejection wouldn’t suddenly put red-tinged Ohio back on President JOE BIDEN’s Electoral College target list. But it could offer clues to the ongoing potency of two issues that helped Democrats in last year’s midterms: small-d democracy and abortion.

On the former, Democrats have and will use Issue 1 and similar measures as part of an argument that Republicans are trying to change the rules of the game to get their way.

And the margins in tonight’s returns will show to what degree Republicans — even in red states — continue to get squeezed on abortion by a very conservative base at the expense of the moderate, suburban and independent voters they need to win close races. That’s a trap the Biden folks are happy to keep laying.

Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. How do you like your county-level returns — Licking, Hocking or Mahoning? Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

A message from The U.S. Chamber of Commerce:

Concerns about policy risks for public companies — changes in taxes, regulations, and enforcement — increased 27% over the last decade, according to a report from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Rising public policy risks threaten business growth, innovation, and our country’s global competitiveness. In Washington, the polarization, gridlock, regulatory overreach, and inability to act smartly and strategically are making it harder for businesses to do their jobs and move this country forward.

COMING ATTRACTION — WaPo’s Greg Sargent previews the labor fight that isn’t going away — between the United Auto Workers and automakers (and the Biden administration) over the wages, benefits and working conditions attached to emerging green-economy jobs — with a close-up look at the brewing battle over an Ohio battery plant.

Said UAW President SHAWN FAIN: “We’re not going to give Biden credit for helping out in Lordstown if the jobs at Ultium remain poverty-level,” referring to the former Chevy plant nearby. He added that Biden needs to get “a hell of a lot more vocal” and there “needs to be a just transition” to a green economy.

The White House responds: “The president is in overall agreement that we need a just transition to electric vehicles that promotes not just more jobs, but good union jobs,” senior economic adviser GENE SPERLING tells Sargent. “Those are views that the president is not going to be shy about voicing.”

COURTHOUSE LATEST — Lawyers for DONALD TRUMP argued in court yesterday that the former president should be allowed to share evidence in his latest criminal case with “volunteer attorneys” and other unpaid advisers as he prepares to defend himself against charges related to his effort to subvert the 2020 election, Kyle Cheney reports.

What the filing said: “The government cannot preclude the assistance of those individuals, nor should President Trump be required to seek permission from the Court before any such individual assists the defense,” Trump’s attorney JOHN LAURO wrote in a filing that seeks to govern the handling of the mountains of evidence prosecutors have gathered and are preparing to share with Trump’s team. Read the filing

Related reads: “Fight over Trump Jan. 6 secrecy order marks start of race to trial,” by WaPo’s Spencer Hsu … “Security increases for judge assigned to Donald Trump’s January 6 criminal case,” by CNN’s Holmes Lybrand

STOP SCROLLING (for just a minute!). Introducing a revamped California Playbook newsletter with an all-new team and a sharpened mission! Join Lara Korte and Dustin Gardiner as they take you on an extraordinary journey through California's political landscape. From inside the Capitol in Sacramento to the mayor’s office in Los Angeles, and from the tech hub of Silicon Valley to even further beyond, we're your front-row ticket to the action. Subscribe for access to exclusive news, buzzworthy scoops and never-before-revealed behind-the-scenes details straight from the heart of California's political arena. Don't miss out — SUBSCRIBE TODAY and stay in the know!

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Storm clouds pass over the Washington Monument, Monday, Aug. 7, 2023. | Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo

2024 WATCH

PRIMARY COLORS — Trump’s propensity for thrashing American institutions is catching on among his rivals, NYT’s Jennifer Medina writes. “Several have adopted much of Mr. Trump’s rhetoric sowing broad suspicion about the courts, the F.B.I., the military and schools. As they vie for support in a primary dominated by Mr. Trump, they routinely blast these targets in ways that might have been considered extraordinary, not to mention unthinkably bad politics, just a few years ago.” But Medina notes that the trend is very much in line with recent polling in which the public has expressed declining trust in many mainstays of the political ecosystem.

DEEP DIVE — “Vivek Ramaswamy’s Rise in 2024 Field Brings Scrutiny Beyond Anti-Woke Record,” by WSJ’s John McCormick: “A detailed look at Ramaswamy’s record of political commentary, dating back to his Harvard University years when he was an occasional rapper, shows some past statements may be out of step with some GOP primary voters and even his own current rhetoric.”

STAFFING UP — ROB FLAHERTY is coming on board the Biden reelection campaign as deputy campaign manager, per The Boston Globe’s Nick Stoico.

MORE POLITICS

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK, PART I — TONY GRADY is jumping into the race to unseat Sen. JACKY ROSEN (D-Nev.). The Air Force veteran, who finished second in the 2022 GOP primary for lieutenant governor, will formally announce his candidacy at a campaign launch event in Las Vegas later today. Watch the announcement video

Grady joins an extremely crowded field of GOP candidates angling for the chance to take Rosen on next year, including SAM BROWN (the NRSC-anointed candidate and a U.S. Army vet), JIM MARCHANT (a former state lawmaker and 2020 election denier), JEFF GUNTER (a deep-pocketed Trump admin former ambassador who joined the race yesterday), BARRY LINDEMANN and WILLIAM CONRAD (both of whom ran for Senate in 2022), RONDA KENNEDY and STEPHANIE PHILLIPS.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK, PART II — The Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC is backing LATEEFAH SIMON in the race to replace Rep. BARBARA LEE (D-Calif.) in California’s 12th congressional district, the organization will announce today. If elected, Simon would be the first-ever legally blind member of Congress.

ON WISCONSIN — ERIC HOVDE is considering a run against Sen. TAMMY BALDWIN (D-Wis.), the Washington Examiner’s David Sivak reports. The Wisconsin businessman took a run at the Wisconsin Senate seat back in 2012, but he fell short of the GOP nomination. Now, with no GOP candidates biting at the challenge of unseating Baldwin, Hovde might have a lane. “For some reason, when you consider a Senate run, everybody wants to get together with you,” Hovde told the Examiner, predicting a decision in the fall.

BACKSTORY — “The Secret Hand Behind the Women Who Stood by Cuomo? His Sister,” by NYT’s Nicholas Fandos: “For nearly two years, MADELINE CUOMO quietly worked with grass-roots activists to help smear her brother’s accusers. He was ‘seeing everything,’ she told his defenders.”

THE WHITE HOUSE

HIT THE ROAD, JOE — “Biden will tout long-sought Grand Canyon monument designation during Arizona visit,” by AP’s Terry Tang in Phoenix: “Biden will announce a new national monument to preserve land around Grand Canyon National Park and limit it from mining, White House officials said Monday. White House climate adviser ALI ZAIDI confirmed during a press gaggle aboard Air Force One that Biden will call for the designation during his visit to northern Arizona on Tuesday, making it his fifth national monument.”

A message from The U.S. Chamber of Commerce:

CONGRESS

THE DOG DAYS ARE OVER — “Dwindling Blue Dog Democrats look to stage a comeback for moderates,” by WaPo’s Marianna Sotomayor

WHAT IMPEACHMENT? — It wasn’t long ago that the impeachment of ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS was one of the hottest topics among the House GOP. But now the prospect of bringing the DHS secretary up on articles of impeachment is dimming, our colleague Jordain Carney writes this morning. Even Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY is speaking with skepticism now after opening the door to inquiries in the past.

“The only time you use impeachment is if someone has done something that rises to impeachment,” McCarthy told POLITICO, noting that committees are still investigating Mayorkas.

The context: “It’s a sign McCarthy hasn’t totally bowed to his conservative wing, even as he’s feeding their hopes of potential impeachment inquiries into Attorney General MERRICK GARLAND and Biden. But centrists and their allies across the conference, already bearish about Mayorkas efforts, are even less enthusiastic about actually attempting to boot those two from office. They’ve supported investigations but have warned that actually taking those votes without proof of wrongdoing could mean the party loses the House next term.”

TRUMP CARDS

INSIDE THE INDICTMENT — “‘Fake’ elector plot raised concerns over legal peril, indictment shows,” by WaPo’s Amy Gardner, Patrick Marley, Yvonne Wingett Sanchez and Josh Dawsey

MEANWHILE — “John Eastman, awaiting potential indictment, asks judge to postpone his disbarment proceedings,” by Kyle Cheney

WHO’S TALKING IN D.C. — “Trump ally Bernie Kerik meets with special counsel investigators,” by CNN’s Abby Baggini, Paula Reid and Marshall Cohen

WHO’S TALKING IN GEORGIA — “Former Georgia lieutenant governor subpoenaed to testify before Fulton County grand jury in 2020 election probe,” by CNN’s Jason Morris, Sara Murray and Jack Forrest

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

HACK JOB — “China hacked Japan’s sensitive defense networks, officials say,” by WaPo’s Ellen Nakashima: “Tokyo has taken steps to strengthen its networks. But they are still deemed not sufficiently secure from Beijing’s prying eyes, which, officials say, could impede greater intelligence sharing between the Pentagon and Japan’s Defense Ministry. The 2020 penetration was so disturbing that Gen. PAUL NAKASONE, the head of the NSA and U.S. Cyber Command, and MATTHEW POTTINGER, who was White House deputy national security adviser at the time, raced to Tokyo.”

FOR YOUR RADAR — “Justice Department helping Ukraine in war crimes investigations, Attorney General Garland says,” by AP’s Lindsay Whitehurst and Nicholas Riccardi

THE LATEST IN NIGER — “Niger coup leaders refuse to let senior U.S. diplomat meet with nation’s president,” by AP’s Sam Mednick and Ellen Knickmeyer

THE ECONOMY

FED UP — “How Long Will Interest Rates Stay High?” by NYT’s Jeanna Smialek: “Fed officials do expect to cut interest rates next year, but only slightly — they think it could be several years before rates return to a level between 2 and 3 percent, like their peak in the years before the pandemic.”

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

ON THE BORDER — “Killing of Native American Man Stirs Anger at Border Patrol,” by NYT’s Jack Healy: “Tribal members pass through border-security checkpoints stationed just outside the reservation on their way to Tucson, the nearest big city, and say they are regularly pulled over and questioned — encounters that have left a film of fear and distrust.”

HITTING YOUR INBOX AUGUST 14—CALIFORNIA CLIMATE: Climate change isn’t just about the weather. It's also about how we do business and create new policies, especially in California. So we have something cool for you: A brand-new California Climate newsletter. It's not just climate or science chat, it's your daily cheat sheet to understanding how the legislative landscape around climate change is shaking up industries across the Golden State. Cut through the jargon and get the latest developments in California as lawmakers and industry leaders adapt to the changing climate. Subscribe now to California Climate to keep up with the changes.

Beyoncé paid $100,000 to keep the Metro running after her D.C. concert Sunday.

Donald Trump’s legal team didn’t like Joe Biden’s “Dark Brandon” joke.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The Texas Tribune Festival is announcing a new slate of speakers for the forthcoming annual event: former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), Neera Tanden, Katie Couric, Karl Rove and James Carville. The festival is set to take place in Austin, Texas, from Sept. 21-23. See the full list of previously announced speakers

MEDIA MOVE — Didi Tang is joining the AP’s Washington bureau as a reporter covering Asian affairs. She previously was China correspondent for The Times of London.

TRANSITION — Eve Sparks is now a press and digital assistant for the Committee on House Administration. She was most recently a press assistant for Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.).

WEDDING — Sara Murray, political correspondent at CNN, and Nicholas Artenstein, strategy senior manager at Accenture, got married recently at Isle of Palms, South Carolina, with a reception dinner at Leon’s in Charleston. The couple met on Hinge and went on their first date at Morris American Bar in D.C. Pic, via Taylor Jordan Photography 

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Michael Bars, executive director of the Election Transparency Initiative and a Trump White House alum, and Cherie Short, president of The Giving Group and a Trump DHS alum, on July 28 welcomed Bryce Michael Bars, who joins big brother Michael. Pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin (7-0) … Ron Klain … CNN’s Kylie Atwood … Virginia Heffernan ... Ken Cook of the Environmental Working Group … Jay Gertsema ... ABC’s Claire Brinberg ... Tyler Bowders … Jonah Seiger ... Morning Brew’s Josh Sternberg ... Samantha Cantrell of Rep. David Kustoff’s (R-Tenn.) office … George Tzamaras of the American Immigration Lawyers Association (63) … Joanna Duchesne of Rep. Ted Lieu’s (D-Calif.) office … David Friedman … Catharine Cypher … Jackson Diehl ... Hayley Matz Meadvin … Michael Toner … POLITICO’s Daniela Falvo, Matt Trujillo and Matthew Karnitschnig … Mike Dankler ... CBS’ Lance Frank … former Michigan Gov. Jim Blanchard ... Habib Durrani ... David Bass of Raptor Strategies … Teach for America’s Joe Walsh ... Marc Ambinder … America Conservation Coalition’s Sarah Jensen … Dow Jones’ Paul Brandus … Eric Brakey

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