The NFL’s “Thursday Night Football” has become low-quality entertainment. 

This week, we get the 4-2 Jaguars visiting the 3-3 Saints. I expect neither team to be fully prepared in a relatively unwatchable game. 

So, why not throw on the Thursday night mid-week college football game? 

And why not throw some cash on it? 

James Madison vs Marshall Prediction

The James Madison Dukes travel to play the Marshall Thundering Herd in an important Sun Belt East game. 

The Dukes are the class of the Sun Belt and one of the nation’s better teams. They’re 6-0 overall and 3-0 in conference play, scoring 35 points per game. 

But there’s a catch. The Dukes aren’t eligible for postseason contention due to an antiquated rule around transitioning from FCS to FBS. Teams transitioning must wait three seasons to play in any postseason game, bowls and conference championships included. The Dukes are in their second year.

James Madison won the Sun Belt East last season but couldn’t play in the championship game. It’s on track to do it again. 

However, this is excellent news for Marshall. 

At 1-1 in conference play, the Thundering Herd are only one game behind the frontrunners for the East Division’s conference championship bid.

While the Herd already have losses to 2-1 Georgia State and 2-1 Old Dominion, complicating their path, they’re still firmly in the mix. 

It’s also worth mentioning Marshall handed James Madison its only home loss last season. Revenge could be on the Dukes’ mind. 

There’s no shortage of storylines in this one. 

There’s also no shortage of betting angles. I’m here to provide my favorite one. 

While Marshall did beat up on James Madison last season, winning 26-12, the Dukes were dealing with several critical injuries in that game, most notably to starting quarterback Todd Centielo. 

The Dukes are fully healthy in this one. 

The situational spot screams Marshall. The Herd are playing their lone home game in five weeks, with JMU sandwiched in between two-game road trips. They’re also off back-to-back losses, so it’s a solid buy-low spot. 

That said, I don’t love the matchup for Marshall. 

These are two great defenses, but they are great at different things. 

JMU’s defensive front is suffocating. The Dukes boast the nation’s best Rush defense, allowing less than 50 rush yards per game at only 1.5 yards per carry. They’re second nationally in EPA per Rush and Rush Success Rate allowed.

There’s some weakness in the secondary, as the Dukes rank 62nd in Pro Football Focus’s (PFF) Coverage grades. But the pass defense is still good because the front seven generates so much pressure. 

Jalen Green has turned into an edge-rushing weapon, racking up 34 total pressures and 10 sacks with a 17.8% pass-rush win rate. He has an 86.7 PFF Pressure grade, 15th nationally among qualified edge players. 

The Dukes boast a 9.1% sack rate, 17th nationally. They rank first in Havoc generated. 

Meanwhile, Marshall’s secondary is elite. The Herd are 13th nationally in PFF’s Coverage grades, so they’re second nationally in EPA per Pass and Pass Success Rate allowed.

But Marshall has massive holes in the front seven. They’re allowing almost 200 rush yards per game at 5.5 yards per carry. They’re 127th in EPA per Rush allowed and 133rd, or dead last, in Rush Explosiveness allowed. 

The fascinating part of this handicap is that both teams establish the rush despite their rushing ineffectiveness. Both teams rush the ball over half the time, and both rank bottom-10 nationally in EPA per Rush. 

So, despite struggling, both squads are not quitting on establishing the rush.

But this week, James Madison might finally succeed against a lackluster rush defense, while Marshall still flails

Granted, Rasheen Ali is the best running back the Dukes have faced this season. But the Dukes are so elite at the point of attack, so it’s hard to believe they’ll struggle. 

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Also, the Dukes are the better offense overall. Quarterback Jordan McCloud is improving with every start, posting his best start last week against Georgia Southern (64.5% completion, 259 yards, 3 TDs).

Kaelon Black is averaging more than five YPC. They have two explosive receivers in Elijah Sarratt (2.8 yards per route run) and Reggie Brown (2.7). 

Cam Fancher has been excellent this season, and Ali is a stud. But Marshall still ranks sub-100th nationally in EPA per Play and sub-75th in Success Rate. The Dukes are 69th and 55th in those marks, respectively. 

It’s worth mentioning that Fancher struggles under pressure.

He’s completing only 53% of his passes for 4.6 yards per attempt with four turnover-worthy plays across 66 dropbacks with guys in his face.

His 47.3 PFF passing grade under pressure ranks 100th among 150 qualified quarterbacks.

He’s likely shaking in his boots thinking about this JMU front.

So, while it’s a tough spot, the Dukes have the schematic advantages to win this one comfortably. 

For what it’s worth, ESPN’s SP+ model projects James Madison as a 5.5-point favorite, giving us a two-point edge over the market. 

James Madison vs Marshall Pick

James Madison -3.5 | Play to -4