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2023 NLDS odds, picks: Phillies, Dodgers to move on

The Wild Card round is in the books.

After a couple of days off, the National League Divisional Series kicks off Saturday evening when the Phillies visit the Braves in Atlanta.

I’ve already given out my picks for the ALDS, so let’s dive into the Senior Circuit.

Here’s how I’m betting on each series, and who I think will advance to the NL Championship round, with odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Phillies (+164) vs. Braves (-205)

The Braves are heavy favorites in this series, and for good reason.

Atlanta won a league-best 104 games behind one of the greatest offenses in baseball history.

But they’ll have a tough test against their rival Philadelphia Phillies, who beat the Braves in four games during the 2022 NLDS.

Atlanta’s lineup is terrifying, but they’re opening up the series with questions at the top of their rotation. Already without 3-4 starters Charlie Morton and Kyle Wright, the team is still undecided if Max Fried will be able to start Game 2 with a blister problem.

Trea Turner went 4-for-7 against the Marlins in the NL Wild Card series.Getty Images

The Phillies, on the other hand, quietly have one of the best trio of starting pitchers in baseball with Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Ranger Suarez, who will get the ball in Game 1.

No offense in baseball can match up with the Braves, but I don’t think the Philly offense is as outmatched as it seems on paper – since Trea Turner’s bat came to life in early August, Philadelphia’s lineup has held its own compared to Atlanta’s (121 wRC+ vs. 131 since Aug. 1).

The Braves are rightly expected to move on, but I don’t see it as that huge of a mismatch. Give me the plus-odds with the Phillies, although my favorite bet is for this series to go five games (+172).

D-backs (+184) vs. Dodgers (-230)

The Dodgers are the biggest favorite of the divisional round against the young D-backs.

Arizona wasn’t supposed to be here – after unexpectedly making the playoffs, the D-backs upset the NL Central champion Brewers on their home field.

With the way the schedule shook out, the D-backs are lucky enough to be able to start Merrill Kelly in Game 1 and Cy Young contender Zac Gallen in Game 2, but it’s going to be an uphill battle against these Dodgers.

Unfortunately, they’re facing a daunting Dodgers lineup that has owned both Kelly and Gallen historically.

Clayton Kershaw will start Game 1 for the Dodgers.Getty Images

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The D-backs may have a slight advantage against LA’s thin starting rotation, but they are no match for their bats.

If Arizona can pull off another upset, it’ll be on the bases – their 166 swipes during the regular season were the most in baseball.

But the Dodgers should be able to mix and match with their deep pitching staff to keep their speedsters off the bases.

I think Arizona’s Cinderella run is coming to an end against the experienced Dodgers. The payout isn’t great if you’re taking the Dodgers straight up, so take them to sweep (+320) or win in four games (+310) instead.



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