The party, in power since 2010, has lagged behind the Main Labour Opposition in polls throughout Sunak's tenure.

Britain's Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and his wife Akshata Murty arrive to the final day of the annual Conservative Party Conference in Manchester, northern England, on 4 October 2023. Picture: AFP

AFP | 04 October 2023 12:43

MANCHESTER - Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is expected to fire the starting gun Wednesday on Britain's next general election campaign, with a much-anticipated keynote speech closing his ruling Conservatives' annual conference.

The UK leader faces a daunting challenge rallying the Tories to win the election -- due some time in 2024 -- after several years of damaging scandals and deep economic woes.

The party, in power since 2010, has lagged behind the main Labour Opposition in polls throughout Sunak's tenure.

But signs that the gap could be narrowing have provided a glimmer of hope as the grassroots gathered in Manchester, northwest England.

Sunak, 43, is expected to continue a recent shift into campaign mode, following a flurry of more populist policy announcements and pivots aimed at drawing dividing lines with Labour.

Ahead of the speech, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps all but confirmed that the prime minister would announce the scrapping of the northern leg of the HS2 train line -- a highly contentious move that has overshadowed the yearly event.

"We have to wait for his actual speech to hear exact confirmation," Shapps told the BBC.

"The balance that has to be made... is whether it makes sense to carry on building that given that the world has changed."

'DIFFERENT'

The decision is unpopular with some Tories.

Andy Street, mayor of the West Midlands region that encompasses Birmingham, is considering quitting in protest.

He reportedly cancelled a planned trip abroad Wednesday to remain in Manchester for the announcement.

Sunak, who has been premier for nearly a year, will likely characterise the decision as fiscally prudent due to spiralling costs.

He is trying to portray himself as a leader willing to take tough and sometimes unpopular decisions.

"I do things properly and carefully... but I'm also willing to do things that are bold, that are different," Sunak told ITV News on Tuesday.

The UK leader cited his recent softening of the pace of Britain's net-zero agenda and his plans for new "pro-motorist" policies as examples.

"I have a different approach to politics," he told Sky News in another pre-speech interview. "I think people have tired of politicians who are... focused on the easy way out, short-term decisions."

But Sunak faces an uphill task convincing voters to stick with the Tories after 13 years and damaging periods of turmoil under his immediate predecessors, Liz Truss and Boris Johnson.

The worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation, driven by decades-high inflation and non-existent economic growth, as well as widespread industrial action, all add to the challenge.

Three imminent by-elections could lay bare the scale of the task ahead, with the Conservatives at risk of losing each one despite having won two of them in 2019.

'BARELY COHERENT'

Labour, which starts its annual conference in Liverpool this weekend, has in contrast enjoyed poll leads of more than 20 points this year.

Although several recent surveys show the gap shrinking, the party appears confident of a first return to government since Gordon Brown was prime minister in 2010.

New Savanta polling published Wednesday suggested its lead had rebounded to 19 points, up five from its last survey.

It also indicated that around a third of 2019 Conservative voters viewed Rishi Sunak as "incompetent", rising to nearly six in 10 when counting all respondents.

"Although the general rule of British general elections is 'always bet on the Conservatives', the reality is that they've run out of room," Richard Carr, an associate professor in public policy and strategy at Anglia Ruskin University, told AFP.

"Their agenda of talking about long-term decisions whilst engaging in easy choices that seem purely designed to appease the party base is barely coherent," added Carr, who edited a volume on the modern Conservative party.

"Faced by a Labour opposition which has got its act together, the most likely outcome is a significant election defeat."

However, some party members in Manchester seemed more upbeat.

"I trust Rishi -- he's in at a difficult time," said lifelong Conservative Yvonne Peacock, 71, branding him details-oriented and "not a soundbite person".

Ian Proud, a retired former Tory councillor in London, argued "there's at least 12 months until the next election.

"A lot can happen," he cautioned.