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Mets may need to look beyond trio of top prospects for answer at third base

Tags: mets

The Mets either have three third basemen to pick among for 2024. Or two. Or one.

Or none.

“I like that we have three great options,” Buck Showalter said.

But what else could he say? He does not want to bad-mouth his players and/or lower their value for David Stearns’ new administration to do what it is going to do.

So I will be less diplomatic.

Mark Vientos, starting at third, played well on both sides of the ball Sunday, including going 3-for-4 with an RBI in a 8-4 victory over the Reds. Still, I am fairly confident he is not even a piece of the answer. The game is moving toward greater athleticism and the Mets cannot keep foregoing defense at the position. They have, for example, had a negative Outs Above Average in each of the last three seasons at third.

If the Mets favor defense at third base, their long-term solution might not include Mark Vientos.USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con

It was minus-9 this season (27th in the majors) with Brett Baty having started their most games there (84), though he sat out his fourth straight Sunday while nursing a groin injury. He was personally minus-4. You never want to dismiss a young player from improving. Wade Boggs, for example, had the reputation of a butcher in the minors. But through fanatical work ethic turned himself into a major league Gold Glove third baseman.

Baty worked last offseason with Troy Tulowitzki to try to upgrade his defense. The results have yet to manifest. He does demonstrate the fluidity of a good third baseman. So how much would he have to hit to justify playing third? His 66 OPS-plus this year was ninth worst among those who have batted as often (348 plate appearances) — and the worst for anyone playing third regularly.

Brett Baty has emerged as an option at third base for the Mets.AP
Brett Baty’s hitting numbers have dipped while playing third base for the Mets this season.AP

Remember, hitting is supposed to be his carrying tool. Would Baty hit more if moved to a less demanding position such as left field or first base? Would he hit more in a less demanding locale — would the Stearns administration, without emotional ties to the current talent base, feel Baty’s best use is in a trade?

The same could be asked about Ronny Mauricio. Would he be best in the outfield or in a trade? Or can he solve third? With Francisco Lindor on the roster, Mauricio is never going to play shortstop regularly for the Mets. He won the Dominican Winter League MVP getting about one-third of his starts at third and the Mets should see as much of him there as possible the last two weeks.

It is that time of year when results can be deceiving. But this is the only laboratory left this season and the Mets should gather as much information as possible. The best free-agent third baseman is going to be Toronto’s Matt Chapman, who after a blistering start has hit .203 and struck out in 30.4 percent of his plate appearances since May 10 (he did have a walk-off hit Sunday). Next best is Jeimer Candelario, who has played as much first as third since being obtained at the trade deadline by the Cubs. Both, especially Chapman, is going to require the kind of expensive, long-term commitment that the Mets have indicated they will avoid this offseason.

Ronny Mauricio’s opportunities at shortstop will be limited with Francisco Lindor on the Mets roster.Robert Sabo for the NY Post

Thus, an internal solution would be best and Showalter has overseen a successful transition of a shortstop to third a decade ago when J.J. Hardy was his Oriole shortstop and Manny Machado was moved to third. Obviously, Machado was more well-regarded entering the league. But Showalter also clearly likes Mauricio’s arm and aptitude. The question is going to be about swing decisions/discipline and ability to hit well as a righty for the switch hitter, who struck out twice from that side with runners in scoring position Sunday. He had two hits lefty and is batting .313.

The Mets must solve this issue. The early decades of this franchise were renowned for being unable to adequately fill third base for a sustained period, marked notably by trades in consecutive Decembers from 1969-71 for Joe Foy, Bob Aspromonte and Jim Fregosi; the Foy (Amos Otis) and Fregosi (Nolan Ryan) deals ranking as historically awful.

Since David Wright’s back failed him a decade ago, the Mets have returned to mostly a black hole at the hot corner. Only Todd Frazier (2018-19) has led the Mets in games started at third in consecutive seasons since 2015. The Mets have had eight players man third this year. Only the Tigers and Reds have more, and Cincinnati (with among others) rookies Elly De La Cruz, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Noelvi Marte, Spencer Steer cycling through have shown young players can handle the position.

For the Mets, Mauricio (18 innings at third) and Mark Canha (five) are the only 2023 third basemen who do not have a negative Wins Above Replacement (Fangraphs) and they were at 0.0 — a fitting number for Mets third basemen again.

That obviously needs to change. Do the Mets already have the answers on the roster — or not?



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Mets may need to look beyond trio of top prospects for answer at third base

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