The Texas Rangers and the Baltimore Orioles play Game 1 of an AL Division Series Saturday. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 1:03 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Rangers vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Regular season series: tied 3-3
The Rangers made quick work of the Tampa Bay Rays on the road in an AL Wild Card Series, winning 2 in a row while outscoring the 99-win Rays by an 11-1 count despite being underdogs in each outing, The total split 1-1.
Texas has won 3 of its last 4 games as an underdog dating back to the regular season while covering the run line in 4 straight. It is also 9-1 in the past 10 games on the run line as a ‘dog, including winning 6 of those games outright.
The Orioles clinched the AL East title with 101 wins, ranking 2nd in the majors behind only the Atlanta Braves (104 wins).
These teams had an interesting regular-season series, splitting the 6 overall meetings. The road team went 2-1 in each of the 2 series, with the Under also going 2-1 in each set.
Rangers at Orioles projected starters
LHP Andrew Heaney vs. RHP Kyle Bradish
Heaney made 28 starts and 34 appearances in the regular season, going 10-6 with a 4.15 ERA. He had a 1.38 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 over 147 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 6-1 road win vs. Seattle Mariners Sept. 30
- 2023 road splits: 3-3, 4.29 ERA (63 IP, 30 ER), 13 HR, .252 OBA in 12 starts and 3 relief appearances
- Making his 1st career postseason start and 2nd overall postseason appearance
Bradish was 12-7 with a 2.83 ERA across 30 regular-season starts. He had a 1.04 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 168 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 2 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 6-1 home loss vs. Boston Red Sox Sunday
- 2023 home splits: 5-4, 2.23 ERA (76 2/3 IP, 19 ER), 6 HR, .199 OBA in 13 starts
- Making his 1st career postseason start and appearance
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Rangers at Orioles odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:22 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Rangers +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Orioles -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rangers +1.5 (-165) | Orioles -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Rangers at Orioles picks and predictions
Prediction
Rangers 4, Orioles 3
Moneyline
The RANGERS (+125) roll into Charm City with quite a bit of momentum, having the confidence of a series sweep in the wild-card round over the 99-win Rays.
The Orioles have been off for nearly a whole week, and you have to think that the hiatus will be a problem for the home side. It’s difficult to switch the intensity on and off. Texas just played Wednesday, and it should be able to carry over its momentum right into battle against another AL East titan.
Run line/Against the spread
The RANGERS +1.5 (-165) aren’t priced out of line if you can’t bring yourself to play them straight up and would prefer a little bit of insurance instead.
Texas has cashed on the run line in 9 of the past 10 games as an underdog, winning 6 of those games outright. And with the road team going 2-1 in each of the 2 regular-season series, Texas is a strong play.
Over/Under
The UNDER 8 (-105) is worth a look, although the postseason inexperience of both pitchers is a concern. Still, the Rangers allowed just a single run in 2 games against the Rays, and the Under is 5-1-1 in the past 7 games overall extending back to Sept. 27 in the regular season.
For the O’s, they saw the total go low in the final 8 regular-season games, allowing just 14 total runs during the span, with 6 runs allowed in the final. That’ll give you a little idea of how Baltimore’s pitchers dominated down the stretch.
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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