Falcons vs. Jaguars Odds

The Sunday NFL Week 4 slate kicks off in London’s Wembley Stadium, where Falcons vs. Jaguars odds have Jacksonville as favorites in its second home.

The Jaguars had high aspirations heading into the season. Unfortunately, they’ve looked far better on paper than on the field, and are one of the league’s biggest disappointments at 1-2. However, I like their chances of rebounding against Atlanta.

Let’s delve into the reasons Jacksonville covering the spread is my Falcons vs. Jaguars pick when they square off in London on Sunday.

This is the 40th International Series game in NFL history, and the trends over the first 39 overwhelmingly favor the Jaguars. According to Evan Abrams’ weekly betting primer – which is an absolute must-read every week – favorites in the series are 25-14 all-time against the spread and 29-9-1 straight up.

The Jaguars are coming off a 37-17 beatdown to the Texans despite being 10-point favorites. They went from 4.5-point favorites against the Falcons to 3-point favorites following the loss, but they were mostly undone by a handful of fluky plays and self-inflicted wounds. So, for me, the 1.5-point shift is an overcorrection, and the public agrees as 69% of bets and 81% of the money back the Jaguars to cover.

Jacksonville has advantages on both sides of the ball.

Trevor Lawrence’s numbers are disappointing thus far, but it’s due to the Jaguars’ own miscues rather than opponents shutting them down. They’ve dropped a league-high eight passes, with former Falcon Calvin Ridley being the main culprit as his three drops are tied for most in the NFL. They should be able to move the ball against the Falcons as long as they clean up their sloppy play.

Meanwhile, Atlanta’s pass defense has overperformed its expected output. While the Falcons have given up the fourth-fewest yards per game (170.0), they have the 11th-worst DVOA against the pass, according to FTN. I like Jacksonville’s chances of exposing the Falcons’ fraudulent pass defense as the Jaguars average the ninth-most passing yards per game (240.7).

The Falcons will likely need to rely on Desmond Ridder to pull off the upset. Jacksonville is far better against the run than the pass, ranking seventh in rushing yards against (84.0) and fourth in DVOA. Meanwhile, they give up 264.3 passing yards per game (sixth worst) and rank 25th in DVOA.

Unfortunately for the Falcons, they’re simply not built to beat teams through the air. They average the fourth-fewest passing yards per game (155.0) as Ridder is off to a dismal start. He has the fifth-fewest completions of any starting quarterback and ranks 25th in both completion percentage (62.5%) and yards per attempt (6.3). He’s thrown only two touchdown passes and has been sacked 12 times, which is tied for third most in the league.

Finally, it’s worth pointing out how the Jaguars are the second-most unlucky team (-37.24%) this season, according to our Luck Rankings model. On the other hand, the Falcons are the 14th-luckiest (7.23).

Even the slightest regression to the mean on both ends further tips the scales toward a Jacksonville cover.

This game is simply too important for the Jaguars to lay another egg. Their Super Bowl aspirations likely go up in smoke if they drop this one, so I expect Doug Pederson to have his team ready to roll. That’s good news considering they have favorable matchups across the board.

The trends and stats favor Jacksonville, so feel free to join me in grabbing a cup of coffee early Sunday morning to root on a Jaguars cover.

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