Sep 10, 2023; New Orleans, LA, USA; Tennessee Titans head coach Mike Vrabel and quarterback Ryan Tannehill (17) talk on the field as the team gets ready to face the New Orleans Saints at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Nelles-USA TODAY Sports
- NFL Week 4 upset picks are live ahead of Sunday’s slate
- The Titans have won an NFL-best 23 games as underdogs since 2018
- Check out our favorite NFL Week 4 upset picks below
If you’re betting the NFL this week you’re going to have to hold your nose before submitting your picks. The public absolutely cleaned up in Week 3, winning seven of the eight most heavily bet games of the slate, and you get the feeling lightning won’t strike twice.
As such, Week 4 is setting up as the perfect time to fade the public. That is, if you have the stomach to do so. That’s the mantra we’re taking with our Week 4 NFL Upset Picks, starting our card with the Titans.
NFL Week 4 Upset Picks
| Matchup | Spread | Moneyline | Pick | Units Risked |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals vs Tennessee Titans | CIN -2.5 | +124 | TEN | 1 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers vs Houston Texans | PIT -3 | +124 | HOU | 1 |
| Los Angeles Rams vs Indianapolis Colts | IND -1 | -108 | LAR | 1 |
Tennessee is currently a +124 underdog at home to Cincinnati in the NFL odds, and the public absolutely loves the Bengals this week, as we’ll discuss.
Odds as of September 29th at BetMGM. Check out the best NFL betting promos before wagering on your favorite Week 4 upset picks. KY residents should check out BetMGM Kentucky for a unique launch offer.
NFL Week 4 Upset Picks
The public is also all over the Steelers on the road in Houston, despite the sharp action coming in on the Texans. This is definitely a spot to back Houston, while the Rams will be the final leg of our underdog trio, as a short road underdog to the Colts.
Titans Bury the Bengals
Back to the Titans, who are catching 2.5 points versus Cincy. Tennessee makes for a great play against the spread as well, but we’re aiming higher by taking them on the moneyline.
No team has been more profitable in an underdog role since 2018 than the Titans, winning an astonishing 23 times outright under Mike Vrabel. Last week aside, every Tennessee game seems like a dog fight, which is exactly what Vrabel wants.
The Titans have won an NFL-high 23 games as an underdog since 2018
Mike Vrabel is nobody’s underdog pic.twitter.com/uu3EIKI73G
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) September 17, 2023
He’s a phenomenal motivator and coach, and will surely have a better game plan than what LA had against a hobbled Joe Burrow on Monday night. Burrow’s calf injury is clearly a major issue, and has led to some uncharacteristic numbers.
Joe Cool ranks dead last among QB’s in expected points added plus completion percentage, while the Bengals offense is among the eight worst per DVOA. They’re averaging only 15 points per game, which is not a recipe for success.
As of Friday, 83% of the ATS tickets for this game are on the Bengals but the line hasn’t moved all week. That’s a pretty clear indication that the books are hoping to bait bettors in to betting Cincy.
Pick: Tennessee Titans Moneyline (+124)
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Texans Take Down Steelers
This is a classic let down spot for Pittsburgh as 3-point favorites. They’re fresh off back-to-back primetime wins, and are staring at a matchup with the Ravens next week. Sure, their pass rush is elite, but their offense is still a mess.
The Steelers rank 31st in scoring percentage and 30th in points per drive. They’ve made a league-low three red zone trips so far, and are averaging a minuscule 3.2 yards per carry.
Houston on the other hand, is 12th in scoring percentage and have eight more red zone opportunities than Pittsburgh. Yes, they’re not converting those trips into touchdowns at a high-rate, but that is bound to regress.
CJ Stroud is now the second leading contender in the Offensive ROY odds, while Kenny Pickett has failed to carry over his preseason success.
CJ Stroud is SPECIAL pic.twitter.com/eHDiNEqz4Z
— Jacob (@Stroud4ROTY) September 24, 2023
The kicker is that 71% of the spread wagers are on Pittsburgh, but the line has moved as much as a full point in Houston’s favor. That tells you the sharps love the Texans in this spot.
Pick: Houston Texans Moneyline (+124)
Rams Escape Indy With a Win
Our final selection isn’t sexy, as the Rams are just a 1-point underdog to the Colts. Nevertheless, the numbers suggest LA should be the favorite, making them a play.
The Rams have the QB advantage, as Matthew Stafford is head and shoulders above Anthony Richardson. The rookie refuses to throw the ball down field, averaging under 6 yards per attempt. He’s also yet to finish a game he’s started, and will now have to deal with the league’s best defensive player in Aaron Donald.
Rams vs Colts Offense DVOA Ranks
| Team | Offense DVOA |
|---|---|
| LA Rams | 12 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 21 |
Indy has been outgained in all three games this season by an average of over 40 yards. They also haven’t turned the ball over since Week 1, which should change now that Richardson is back under center.
On the flip side, LA has accumulated the third most first downs in the league, and are outgaining their opponents by over 80 yards per contest. Sean McVay is 21-12-3 all-time coming off a loss, and he should be able to improve upon that record this week.
Pick: LA Rams Moneyline (-108)
Chris Amberley
As SBD’s resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he’d rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
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