49ers vs. Rams Odds

Week 2 features an NFC West rivalry game, and 49ers vs. Rams odds unsurprisingly peg San Francisco as heavy favorites at SoFi Stadium.

The 49ers have bulldozed opponents since Brock Purdy took over late last year. San Francisco put on another electric performance in its season opener and have shown no signs of letting up, which is why I’m all over the team total against the Rams.

Let’s preview this Week 2 NFL game between San Francisco and Los Angeles and then make a 49ers vs. Rams pick.

The 49ers are a juggernaut with Purdy at the helm. They’ve averaged 33 points in seven regular season games with him under center and have scored at least 30 in all but one game.

The 49ers steamrolled the Steelers 30-7 last week and amassed 391 yards of offense, which was the fourth most in the NFL. Now, San Francisco faces a Rams defense that’s far inferior to Pittsburgh’s.

In fact, our preseason NFL defense rankings projected the Steelers as the league’s fourth-best unit, while the Rams came in at 27. If not for all-time great Aaron Donald, Evan Abrams believes Los Angeles might actually have the league’s worst defense.  Additionally, Pro Football Focus’ projections peg the Rams with the NFL’s worst secondary, so it wouldn’t shock anyone if Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle have monster games on Sunday.

Then there’s Christian McCaffrey, who authored a memorable performance last year against the Rams. He racked up 183 total yards and also threw, caught and ran for a touchdown in San Francisco’s 31-14 win. It’s also worth noting that game came against a relatively healthy Los Angeles defense, one that had more talented players than the Rams boast now.

Speaking of which — as noted in my lookahead pick, where I was fortunate to grab a game total over 42 (it’s now at 45.5) — the Rams’ strong defensive performance last week against the Seahawks was fool’s gold. That was more a product of Seattle suffering major injuries than Los Angeles shutting the Seahawks down.

Seattle scored 13 points and gained 168 yards in the first half, but put up a goose egg and recorded just 12 yards in the second half. The Rams gave up the third-fewest yards in the league last week (180), but don’t be fooled.

Additionally, the 49ers have had their way with the Rams in the Kyle Shanahan era, averaging 27.4 points per game across 12 regular-season contests. If you take out a dud performance in 2018 in which they scored 10 points — the only time they’ve scored fewer than 20 against the Rams — they’re averaging 29.0 PPG.

They’ve also performed better against the Rams on the road, averaging 27.8 PPG in Los Angeles. Some offenses simply have a defense’s number, and that appears to be the case between these teams.

I’m big on riding streaks until they snap, which is why I’m all aboard the 49ers train. After all, who am I to go against history?

Averaging 33 points in seven Purdy starts, while scoring at least 30 in six of those games, checks the boxes for me in terms of sample size and production.

For what it’s worth, team totals between 24.5-26.5 are some of my favorites when it comes to electric offenses. Scoring either four touchdowns, or three with a couple field goals, are simple paths for the over to hit.

I like this bet up to 28.5, but absolutely love it at 26.5.

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