Tennis betting tips: Western and Southern Open

0.5pt e.w. Hubert Hurkacz to win the title at 66/1 (Betfred)

0.25pt e.w. Ugo Humbert to win the title at 150/1 (Betfred)

0.25pt e.w. Gael Monfils to win the title at 150/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power, bet365)

0.5pt Mackenzie McDonald to win the third quarter at 25/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Western and Southern Open

• Cincinnati, USA (outdoor hard)

It’s probably got something to do with 15 years of dominance by the Big Four but the Masters 1000 events struggle to get my juices flowing from a betting perspective.

It was an era when short-priced winners were virtually a permanent fixture – 28 of 29 titles were won by the famous Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, Murray quartet at one stage – and my default position seems to be to trust the favourites.

However, things have unfolded rather differently over the past week in Toronto – at time of writing the final is due to be contested between Jannik Sinner and Alex de Minaur, both of whom were decent odds at the start.

In a week when both of my picks lost matches in which they were heavily odds-on in-running, I did at least call it right in terms of opposing Carlos Alcaraz.

Playing his first event since his Wimbledon success, the Spaniard looked well below his best. He was fortunate to escape against Hubert Hurkacz before falling to Tommy Paul.

Given what we saw in Toronto, it’s hard to be confident about backing Alcaraz at around the 2/1 mark.

Neither do I want to rush in to back Djokovic at approximately the same price.

It’s the Serb’s return to the tour this week following that classic Wimbledon final.

He’s known as a mental giant, certainly during matches, but you do wonder if that loss in south-west London will have left at least a small scar.

His shot at the Grand Slam has now gone and he could be forgiven were he still dwelling on the break point he held to go up in the final set.

That probably won’t be the case but, even so, this hasn’t been a good place to back Djokovic in the past – he’s won this title only once in 14 visits.

For those ready to pull me up on this stat, it’s worth pointing out his second Western and Southern Open triumph came when the event was held in a ‘COVID bubble’ in New York in 2020.

He’s also got a tough draw this week.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina could be his first opponent and he played some sublime tennis in Toronto en route to the last four. That is not the ideal match for Djokovic after a month off.

Then could come De Minaur, Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev. And that’s just to reach the final.

I’ll swerve and, not put off by last week’s experiences, again look to find someone who could offer some value.

Before doing so, we need to consider likely conditions.

Cincinnati has long offered some of the faster conditions on the ATP Tour – there’s a little bit of altitude here – but it’s worth pointing out that this year the court surface has changed.

New GreenSet Grand Prix courts are now in place at the Lindner Family Tennis Center and we can’t be sure how they are going to play.

Tournament organisers appear to want to keep conditions quick – their press release about the change describes GreenSet as “the world’s leading manufacturer of fast court surfaces”.

The ITF’s court pace rating for their Grand Prix surface is officially medium but, like all newly-laid courts, you often find they actually play slower than intended in their early days before they are ‘smoothed down’ by use.

That could explain a service hold percentage of just 77% during the first round of qualifying – the tournament as a whole has been in the low 80s at times in the past – although 14 matches is a small dataset.

This uncertainty is a worry but I’m going to work on the assumption that it will remain on the faster side of average.

Let’s start in quarter one where Casper Ruud is the highest-seeded alternative to Alcaraz but he’ll likely find it too fast here and is probably still wondering how he lost from 5-3 30-0 up in the final set last week against Davidovich Fokina.

Alcaraz’s conqueror Paul is also in here but maybe conditions will be right for UGO HUMBERT, who looks an interesting long shot.

He’s produced some decent results to climb back up the rankings this season and he’s getting close to his career-high.

Form since arriving in North America has been good with semi-final runs in Newport and Atlanta before injury halted his progress after he had reached the last eight in Washington.

Last week in Toronto he was edged out in a final set by Taylor Fritz but as a player who has a big, awkward, lefty serve and one who loves to come in behind it, the Frenchman should relish playing in Cincy. For the record, he’s played here only once before and lost his first match.

Admittedly Humbert has let this column down a few times in the past and is certainly a long shot but one which might just reward.

In the second quarter, we find defending champion Borna Coric, fourth seed Stefanos Tsitsipas and Andrey Rublev.

However, Coric remains wildly inconsistent, loved-up Tsitsipas has been short of his best for a some time and while Rublev did make the final here in 2021, it should be quicker than ideal for the Russian, who has been well beaten in his last two matches against unheralded opponents.

My alternative is to back HUBERT HURKACZ, who came so close to beating Alcaraz last week, eventually losing 3-6 7-6 7-6.

When his serve is on, the Pole is hard to stop and conditions here should aid his cause.

He’s achieved some of his best results on the hardcourts of North America. The biggest title of his career came last year in Miami, while he’s also won events in Delray Beach and Winston-Salem, as well as finishing runner-up in Montreal 12 months ago.

He should have taken some confidence out of last week and with a decent draw, he looks worthy of support.

Moving onto quarter three, we find Medvedev.

He was among our selections last week but lost from 1/5 in-play to De Minaur at the quarter-final stage.

The serve was worryingly inconsistent, double-faults thrown in at key moments, including match point.

He’s won here in the past (2019) and made the semis on his last two visits but after last week’s effort, I want more than 6/1 which isn’t too much bigger than last week when there was no Djokovic in the field.

Alex Zverev, another former champion here, was considered at 33s but the German continues to frustrate.

Just when you think he’s getting back to the sort of form which took him as high as world number two little over a year ago, he throws in a result like last week’s hammering to Davidovich Fokina.

Yes, the Spaniard played well but peak Zverev simply doesn’t lose 6-1 6-2.

In addition, Zverev has lost eight of his last nine against Medvedev, his scheduled last-16 foe.

Holger Rune also seems to be in a bit of a funk so how about the chances of MACKENZIE McDONALD?

He loves a fast court and looked in good nick in Toronto where he beat Rublev and Milos Raonic en route to the quarter-finals.

McDonald could be an awkward foe for Rune should they meet in round two and I just feel he’s overpriced in a section where the principals are all below their best right now.

Finally, the bottom quarter sees Djokovic joined by Jannik Sinner, not to mention in-form duo De Minaur and Davidovich Fokina.

Sinner is an obvious threat after his good week in Toronto, although his body hasn’t been the most reliable so backing him for another deep run carries risk.

De Minaur and ADF also have the fatigue issue to contend with but there’s another player who might just make waves here and that’s GAEL MONFILS.

Now, the man often appears to be made of glass and therefore could pull up at any minute, but last week he shone in Toronto, striking the ball really well.

He dropped serve only once in his first three matches and while eventual finalist Sinner had more success returning it, Monfils still pushed him to a final set, something no-one else did (at least prior to the final).

If he serves as well this week, he can be a threat.

The big problem is the presence of Djokovic in the quarter – the Serb has won all 18 of their meetings.

I’m sure that will put plenty off but in a week when Djokovic could be vulnerable, I’ll have the smallest of bets and hope for the best!

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