Golf betting tips: The Memorial Tournament

1pt e.w. Wyndham Clark at 14/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4)

0.5pts e.w. Russell Henley at 50/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

If six shots seems an achievable deficit to make up over the final 18 holes of a PGA Tour event, then precisely 41 players still have a chance of being handed the Memorial Tournament trophy by Jack Nicklaus on Sunday.

Far from ‘Moving Day’ creating any sort of separation, the third round ended with a three-way tie for the lead after David Lipsky bogeyed the final two holes to drop back to 6-under. That put him tied with Rory McIlroy and Si Woo Kim. Five players – Denny McCarthy, Viktor Hovland, Wyndham Clark, Lee Hodges and Mark Hubbard – sit one back.

And so it goes on. Let’s throw in Major winners Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama and Keegan Bradley on 4-under alongside Patricks, Cantlay and Rodgers. Jordan Spieth hit all 14 fairways (widens eyes and checks that again; yep just second time in 878 PGA Tour career rounds) on Saturday and Sungjae Im are in a nine-man log-jam at 3-under.

So can history help us solve this mighty puzzle? Although Cantlay’s victory in 2021 demands a great big asterisk after Jon Rahm had to withdraw after 54 holes when six clear, since 2007 there are eight other instances of players coming from three to five shots back to win.

However, when going back to 1996, only three winners emerged from outside the top four on the 54-hole leaderboard. The last player to win from there was Tiger Woods in 2009 when vaulting from seventh to first via a final-round 65. If being in the top four proves the best pointer again, that narrows down the field to the three leaders and the five players in tied fourth.

Of those, the one I’m drawn to is WYNDHAM CLARK, one of the quintet of players a shot back. Five of the 13 players at tied ninth or better are seeking a first win while others in that leading bunch will feel they’re due one. For Clark, though, this may seem something like a free hit given that he won Wells Fargo just two starts ago. And that freedom could prove decisive.

Much of the talk this week is about deep rough and finding fairways and Clark ranks 2nd in Driving Accuracy so far. Pair that with third in Driving Distance and he’s got a big advantage off the tee. He’s also fifth for Greens In Regulation and eighth for Bogeys and often in high-scoring events the key is limiting mistakes rather than trying to out-birdie everyone.

One of just three players so far this week to have shot under par on all three days, Clark is in great position again. With a bunch of good form prior to his Quail Hollow breakthrough, I’ll back him at 14/1 with the maximum four places.

How about a deeper dive into stats? Muirfield Village is supposed to be about solid iron play isn’t it? Well, this is where things get baffling. McIlroy is 43rd for Strokes Gained: Approach, Si Woo Kim 42nd, McCarthy 36th and Hovland 34th. Joint leaders McIlroy and Kim were 51st and 56th respectively for SG: Approach in round three. Hmmm. Is it different this year or are some of those ropey SGA numbers giving us a hint about who to swerve?

I’m going to buy into that idea a little bit and look where the positive Strokes Gained: Approach numbers are flashing. And that’s where RUSSELL HENLEY lights up. He ranked fifth for Approach on day three and is fourth in that category overall.

Henley’s improving rounds of 74, 71 and 68 have taken him to within three of the lead. Sure, there are no end of potential winners lying in wait but he’s one of them and I’m prepared to give him a spin at 50/1, taking four places.

Looking back to the start of the week, Henley arrived in Dublin, Ohio on the back of tied 16th in the Charles Schwab Challenge. Just three starts earlier he’d posted fourth in the US Masters and followed that with a top 20 at Hilton Head while he ended a five-year drought with victory at Mayakoba back in October. He has course form too via sixth on debut in 2013 and seventh on his penultimate visit in 2020 when shooting a Sunday 67.

Back to the top of the leaderboard and does Rory make any appeal? He’s converted 11 of his previous 18 third-round PGA Tour leads which is impressive although in the vast majority of those he didn’t have half the world on his tail.

Rory admitted after round three that he was “just hanging in there”, adding that he was falling back on his short game (he’s 7th for SG: Around The Green). Of course, he could muddle his way through and win without hitting his best but he seems beatable and I’m in no great rush to take the 11/4.

Published at 0910 BST on 04/06/23

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