In a welterweight bout on the main card, Daniel Rodriguez and Ian Garry meet Saturday at UFC on ABC 4 at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, N.C. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ABC 4: Rodriguez vs. Garry odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at noon ET, with the main card on ABC/ESPN+ at 3 p.m. ET.
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Rodriguez is looking to rebound after a 3rd-round submission setback against Neil Magny last time out in November. That loss halted a 4-bout win streak, which included a split-decision win over Li Jingliang at UFC 279 in September.
“D-Rod” had gone the distance in 2 straight fights, and 4 of his previous 5, before the submission setback to Magny.
Garry has won each of his first 4 fights at the UFC level since making his debut in Nov. 2021. That includes a 3rd-round KO/TKO against Song Kenan last time out at UFC 285 on March 4. He has a pair of knockout wins in his UFC career, while also winning via unanimous decision on 2 occasions.
Garry is 11 years younger than his counterpart, while the southpaw Rodriguez holds a 7.42-to-6.79 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Garry is slightly more accurate with his strikes, landing 57.74% to just 52.04% for D-Rod.
UFC on ABC 4: Rodriguez vs. Garry odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:58 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Rodriguez +240 (bet $100 to win $240) | Garry -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -135 | No +100)
UFC on ABC 4: Rodriguez vs. Garry picks and predictions
Records: Rodriguez (17-3-0) | Garry (11-0-0)
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Garry (-300) will cost you 3 times your potential return, which is too expensive for a standalone wager or as part of a multi-fighter parlay. Including the heavy favorite sucks all the value out of your ticket.
Instead, look to method of victory for a much better value. I like GARRY BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+125) at plus money.
Over/Under (O/U)
YES (-135): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is the play, as I am expecting Garry to win by decision/technical decision.
Rodriguez has gone the distance in 4 of his past 6 fights, and 5 of his past 8 fights at the UFC level. Garry has gone the distance in 2 of the past 3 outings too, while going into Round 3 in each of the previous 3 fights.
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