A mid-table clash at Stamford Bridge will see the winner end the weekend in the top half of the Premier League table. 

Chelsea vs Aston Villa odds

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Chelsea vs Aston Villa predictions

Chelsea’s Champions League last-16 triumph over Borussia Dortmund looks more significant with each passing week.

Had the Blues lost that tie, they would have nothing left to play for this season. That would have led to an increased feeling of dissatisfaction among the Stamford Bridge faithful, and Graham Potter would have been pushed closer to the exit door.

The former Brighton & Hove Albion head coach is still under pressure, but the fact Chelsea have a European quarter-final against Real Madrid to look forward to has at least kept their campaign alive – for now.

There were signs before the international break that Chelsea were beginning to find form. As well as overcoming Dortmund on home turf, the Blues collected seven points from a possible nine in the top flight in March.

Their league position has not improved in that time, but this has been such an underwhelming season that Potter will be relieved that Chelsea have at least avoided dropping into the bottom half.

That is the fate which could await them this weekend, though. An Aston Villa victory in the late kick-off on Saturday would see Chelsea drop down to 11th.

The chance to enter the top half gives Unai Emery’s men a strong incentive to emerge triumphant in west London. A late charge for European qualification is by no means out of the question for a Villa team on the up.

Chelsea vs Aston Villa betting tips

Chelsea have shown signs of life in recent weeks, but Aston Villa are potentially tricky opponents for Graham Potter’s side.

Draw or Aston Villa – 5/4 (Spreadex)

It is easy to forget that Aston Villa were genuinely troubled by the threat of relegation earlier this season.

After a 4-0 thrashing by Newcastle United at the end of October, Villa were 16th with just a one-point buffer above the bottom three.

That was Emery’s first game at the helm following the sacking of Steven Gerrard a few weeks earlier. Back then, simply finishing above the dreaded dotted line would have been viewed as a success.

As it is, Villa have much loftier ambitions five months on. Since that loss to Newcastle, they have taken 26 points from 14 matches. Only Arsenal, Manchester City and Brentford and Manchester United have outperformed them in that time.

Incidentally, Chelsea rank 11th in the division over that period, which is why Villa will not be particularly fearful when they arrive at Stamford Bridge on Saturday.

They too were in fantastic form prior to the international break, with three wins and a draw in their last four outings.

Villa have still lost only two away games under Emery: to Newcastle in that aforementioned first fixture, and to Manchester City in February.

Potter’s Chelsea are very much a work in progress and they could be frustrated by their upcoming opponents.

Draw at half-time – 23/20 (Spreadex)

If you like quick starts and attacking football from the get-go, Stamford Bridge is not the place for you. 

Remarkably, there have been just five first-half goals in Chelsea’s 13 home games this term. That works out as a goal every 117 pre-interval minutes.

By way of comparison, opening periods at the Etihad Stadium have featured 28 goals, almost six times the equivalent figure at Chelsea’s ground.

There are two ways of looking at this. No team in the division has scored fewer first-half home goals than Chelsea’s four – not even the famously shot-shy Wolverhampton Wanderers, Crystal Palace or Everton.

On the flip side, visitors to the Bridge have put the ball in the back of the net just once all season. No other backline in the Premier League has been as difficult to break down from minutes one to 45 in front of their own fans.

It is also worth noting that Villa are slow starters on the road. They are the only team in the league that has never been ahead at the break in an away game this term. 

Yet the scores have been level at half-time in eight of their 13 away matches – only Fulham have more draws to their name at the midway point.

All of which suggests there is a good chance that there will be nothing separating these teams as the second half kicks off.

Second half higher scoring – 21/20 (Spreadex)

On a similar theme, there will probably be more goals after the break than before it.

Chelsea have scored 12 times in second halves at home compared to four in first halves, while they have conceded nine goals post-interval compared to one prior.

Meanwhile Villa seem to undergo a dramatic transformation once the clock hits 46 minutes away from home.

While they have the second-worst record in first halves at opposition grounds, they rank third in the Premier League in the second period – behind only Manchester City and Arsenal. 

This trend pre-dates Emery’s arrival but it has been especially pronounced since he took the reins.

The Spaniard will be content to keep things tight in the first 45 minutes, before committing more bodies to attack after his half-time team talk.

As for Chelsea, they are much more effective in attack as games open up the longer they go on.

How to watch Chelsea vs Aston Villa

• Location: Stamford Bridge, London, England.
• Date and time: Saturday 1 April 2023, 5.30pm.
• How to watch: Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Premier League.

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