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The NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year Award is always a challenging one to pinpoint entering a new season. Generally, we see some players dominate from wire-to-wire and hit on their value that is placed near the top of the betting board. It is usually a lot more valuable to place a bet on a player that is not everyone’s pick to win it, though.

In recent years, the Nfl Offensive Player of the Year winner has been a skill position player. The last four winners of this particular award have all been skill position players. Three of those four were wide receivers, with the lone running back being Derrick Henry of the Tennessee Titans. He won it in 2020 after posting 2,027 rushing yards, 17 rushing touchdowns and 5.4 yards per carry.

Interestingly, only four players won both the NFL Offensive Player of the Year Award and the NFL MVP in the same season over the last ten years. All four of those winners were quarterbacks. That includes Peyton Manning (2013), Cam Newton (2015), Matt Ryan (2016) and Patrick Mahomes (2018).

Who are some of our favorite betting values for 2023 NFL Offensive Player of the Year? We will list four names that immediately stand out, and list reasons as to why. Let’s kick it off.

Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook

Justin Jefferson: +1300 Odds

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Last year’s winner of NFL Offensive Player of the Year, Justin Jefferson currently holds the second-best odds, sitting only behind Ja’Marr Chase. If you wanted to take someone near the top of the betting board, Jefferson may be the most intriguing. The Vikings wide receiver set a new NFL record for most receiving yards in a players’ first three career seasons last year. The old record-holder, Randy Moss, totaled 4,163 receiving yards in his first three seasons. Jefferson now has 4,825 career receiving yards, needing four fewer games than Moss to break the record.

From a player perspective, Jefferson has generated at least 1,400 receiving yards in all three seasons of his career. His 1,809 receiving yards from last season not only led the league, but it was the sixth-most receiving yards in a single season all-time. From a team perspective, you are still going to see a fair amount of targets go to TJ Hockenson and KJ Osborn. Plus, what will incoming rookie Jordan Addison be able to accomplish? No matter who the supporting cast is, it is challenging to envision Jefferson getting much less targets than he has in the past two seasons (167 in 2021, 184 in 2022). If that continues and his production remains consistent, Jefferson could win back-to-back NFL Offensive Player of the Year awards.

Tyreek Hill: +2000 Odds

Only San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey sits in between Jefferson and Tyreek Hill for betting odds. You can get McCaffrey at +1500 for NFL Offensive Player of the Year. Meanwhile, Hill is tied at +2000 odds with names like Nick Chubb and Justin Fields. If there is anything that seems interesting about this odds number, it is actually something that Hill hopes to accomplish from a receiving yards standpoint. He recently discussed trying to top 2,000 receiving yards, which you can read about here.

In his first year with the Miami Dolphins last season, Hill accumulated 1,710 receiving yards. That was not only a new career high for a single season. In fact, that total was 231 yards higher than his most receiving yards in a single season while with the prolific Kansas City Chiefs offense. Hill’s best with Kansas City was 1,479 receiving yards in 2018, Mahomes’ first year as the starting quarterback.

On one hand, you have to think about Hill’s style of play and athleticism to create explosive play after explosive play. He is always going to have a chance to break one loose and rack up yards after the catch, which could continuously keep him near the top of the league lead in receiving yards throughout a single season. Tua Tagovailoa will have to prove that he can stay healthy. But in the 13 games Tagovailoa played in last year, Hill tallied 1,408 receiving yards. Just getting 302 receiving yards in the four games that Tagovailoa missed was impressive. Tyreek Hill can easily win 2023 NFL Offensive Player of the Year, if he produces at a similar pace to last year.

Lamar Jackson: +2500 Odds

You do not have to go down far on the betting board for this award for our next favorite value. If there is any quarterback that I like of these current odds, it is Lamar Jackson. Once again, health will be a major sticking point for the Louisville product. There are a few items that I like that could very well be in Jackson and Baltimore’s favor, nonetheless.

New offensive coordinator Todd Monken could allow for Jackson to throw the ball much more than we have been accustomed to seeing. The quarterback’s previous career high for pass attempts in a single season came in 2019 during his MVP-winning season, when Jackson had 401 passing attempts. I think he exceeds that number considerably. You also have to like his chances to see his overall passing numbers pass his old career high of 3,127. Of course, that also came in 2019.

Overall, Jackson’s passing yards total could increase significantly with what looks to be his best supporting cast ever. Odell Beckham Jr. and rookie Zay Flowers will likely handle most of the load at wide receiver, as Mark Andrews looks to dominate once more at tight end. Do not sleep on Rashod Bateman finding some footing in a new offensive scheme as well. Finally, Isaiah Likely could have more opportunities to flash. If his rushing success remains and the passing volume and production increases like I anticipate, Lamar Jackson is a fun bet for NFL Offensive Player of the Year.

Stefon Diggs: +3000 Odds

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We go back to the wide receiver position for our fourth and final betting value at NFL Offensive Player of the Year. Stefon Diggs is one of six players who you can currently get at +3000 odds for this award at DraftKings. The other five names with that number are Jonathan Taylor, the aforementioned Derrick Henry, Davante Adams, Jalen Hurts and Cooper Kupp. Notably, New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson sits alone in between Lamar Jackson and these six names at +2800 odds.

Stefon Diggs is likely recognized as one of the top receivers by most NFL fans. Yet, he is somehow still a bit underappreciated. That is especially true, when looking at his last four years of production. He has generated at least 1,130 receiving yards or more in each of those four years. In all three years that Diggs has been with the Buffalo Bills, he has finished with at least 154 targets, 103 receptions and 1,225 receiving yards in each year.

Say the Bills fail to produce consistently as a supporting cast behind Diggs again, and Stefon could once again dominate at the wide receiver position in production. His pace has already been strong. And in a year with seemingly more pressure on Buffalo than ever, Diggs could end up being a tremendous betting value for NFL Offensive Player of the Year.

Be on the lookout for more FPC NFL betting articles and analysis in the coming days. For more great sports and NFL content, stay tuned to Full Press Coverage.

– Braden Holecek is the Kansas City Chiefs managing editor for Full Press Coverage. He covers the NFL. Like and follow on Follow @ebearcat9//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Follow @FPC_Chiefs//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js and Facebook.