Group l racing at Eagle Farm kicks off this Saturday, with Kovalica dominating the market for the Queensland Derby (2400m).

Down below is a speed map, runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2023 Queensland Derby.

Market : View the Odds for the Queensland Derby

2023 Queensland Derby Speed Map

Promises Kept led in the South Australian Derby and is drawn gate one here, so I think he’ll be pressing forward. Sacred Mission led throughout at Ipswich. Outside that pair, it’s hard to find early speed. Kovalica should lob into a lovely spot. Special Swey is drawn wide and did race forward midrace in the Rough Habit, but usually with Waller runners, once drawn wide, they opt for a sit.

2023 Queensland Derby Runner Preview:

1. Kovalica: The seven day back up is the only knock with Kovalica, otherwise he wins. He was due to run in the Rough Habit but had a slight setback and was sent around last Saturday in the Doomben Cup where he took on the older horses and ran a beauty in defeat I thought when a close up third to Huetor. That is the right form, on paper, by some distance. The only query is the back up.

2. The Vowels: The 2400m is the query but he is one of the better local chances. He comes through the Rough Habit and yes, the ride aboard Special Swey was 12/10 and it won the horse the race. The Vowels tried to make a run and chase him down but it didn’t quite eventuate. With a soft run, 2400m is okay, and he saves his best for Eagle Farm.

3. Aberfeldie Boy: The trip will be no issue for him given he ran third in the SA Derby. He got back in the run and closed off quite well late in the piece to run third to Dunkel, a horse who I think will be a serious force in the Spring, so I am trusting that form and he will be strong at the end.

4.Promises Kept: He looked all over a winner in the SA Derby when leading but was nabbed late by Dunkel, his first run in several weeks. You think this is the race they have had in mind for him and with that hard run under the belt, it should hold him in good stead.

5. Andalus: Very interesting runner. Former Kiwi that is now with Stephen Marsh, having not raced since the ATC Derby from disgraced in defeat behind Major Beel. Kept on ice and with two trials under the belt, he’s ready to go, and his overall form is solid. Not penning.

6. Tapildoodledo: Surprised many with a win in the Tulloch during the Sydney Autumn. He hasn’t quite gone on with it since but didn’t run a bad race after doing work in the Rough Habit. He could pinch a first four spot at a price, but highly doubt he wins.

7. Waitak: Showed promise earlier on in the prep as a Derby candidate but his recent runs have been a bit on the plain side, so the jury is out on him, but his best NZ sees him go close to winning this, so I wouldn’t be totally dismissing him.

8. Special Swey: Special Swey has the sense of timing and Waller polish. His Australian debut came in the Rough Habit and the ride from Schiller was 12/10. He made the move to find the front and sustained a gallop, proving very strong to the line in winning. I think 2400m will be no issue with him and he is the one with upside/timing to command respect.

9. Stroke Of Luck: He looks on track for the Derby. Ran in the Rough Habit when given a ground saving ride from Nash and tried hard but couldn’t quite get there behind Special Swey. He has the hint of being Benaud 2.0. Good horse, talented, but doesn’t win. But outside Kovalica, this race is very even.

10. Smartawi: He will have no issue with 2400m IMO given he found the line well from the back last Saturday at Rosehill, but they walked home in that race, bunched finish…I just can’t see him threatening.

11. Arby: Kiwi raider that has talent, but not enough to measure up here. In terms of the Kiwi raiders, I’d have Andalus several lengths clear of him and the market says as much.

12. Cut On A Dime: I have seen worse $101 chances. I thought he worked to the line really well in the Rough Habit, albeit did get the suck run and did no work. He maps to do no work again…doubt he wins, but for exotics, I can entertain him.

13. The Englishman: He has talent, but no idea what he is doing. IMO, he was lucky to win the race at Kembla two back, his maiden, before going to 2100m at Wyong where he was one paced in the straight but stayed on and was only nabbed late. Stable is flying, but he doesn’t have the quality.

14. Fame: Another roughie that I can entertain. He has beaten nothing his past two, but the arrogance in which he put them away has been impressive and the way he races, Jason Collett is the perfect booking. Bludge out the back and dive bomb them late. Must for multiples.

15. Xtrarevz: Once again, another at odds that I can entertain. He was an eye catcher in the Rough Habit. Not sure Doomben suited him but once he balanced up, he found the line really well. 2400m is fine, stable is in form, strong late…knockout hope.

16. Sacred Mission: Sacred Mission doesn’t have the quality of some of these but the 2400m will be no issue. He earned his spot in the field last Wednesday at Ipswich over 2200m, leading throughout under KWT and what impressed me was how strong he was late, running the trip out strongly. He’ll give a sight I am sure and I think is a must for multiples.

17. Amalgamation: I thought he was a moral three back at Beaudesert in a 2450m maiden and he did nothing. He has gone to Ipswich his past two, winning the maiden two back and was far from disgraced behind Sacred Mission. He’s not up to these.

18. True Blue: Heading in the right direction this guy and will stay the trip fine. Just don’t think he has the quality.

19. Subarctic (First Emergency): Similar to True Blue. Just not up to these.

20. Artful Girl (Second Emergency): She’ll struggle at this level after just a maiden win at Toowoomba.

2023 Queensland Derby $100 Betting Strategy:

Kovalica is the likely winner but is too short so I’ll have $25 Place on four runners. Cut On A Dime, Fame, Xtrarevs and Sacred Mission are the four.

Group l Strategy Outlay: $7050
Group l Strategy Return: $4659.50

2023 Queensland Derby Odds:

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