Sure, it’s early, but sportsbooks are already giving us an early look at divisional betting odds and win totals, so we can’t ignore them. The new league year has started, and free agent signings and subsequent roster moves have been rolling in non-stop over the past few weeks. We’re unpacking the NFL Draft weekly on Move The Line, and we’re still awaiting the schedule release, which should come in mid-May, though we do know who each team plays.

As of this writing, we have a partial picture of what’s to come and how to handicap each division, but there are impactful data points still to come over the coming months. So with that said, let’s look at each team’s current status and how to bet on them.

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Kansas City Chiefs

Schedule Notes

All AFC West teams face the AFC East and NFC North this season, with their additional three games coming against teams that finished in the same place in their respective division (two in conference, one non-conference), which I’ll list below.

2023 Divisional Odds: -149 (Caesars)

2023 Win Total: 11.5

2022 Record: 14-3

2022 Offensive EPA Rank: 1st

2022 Defensive EPA Rank: 15th

Effective Cap Space (per OverTheCap.com): $1.8 million

First-Round Draft Pick: No. 31

Total Draft Picks: 10

3 Unique 2023 Opponents: Cincinnati, Philadelphia, @ Jacksonville

The Chiefs get the short end of the stick scheduling-wise, drawing the three teams they faced in last year’s Super Bowl run as their unique opponents. You can make the case that the rest of the league gets the short end of the stick because they don’t have Patrick Mahomes, so it all comes out in the wash.

After moving on from Tyreek Hill last offseason, the concern echoed in most NFL circles centered around the Chiefs‘ offense taking a small step back. Spoiler alert; that did not happen. The Chiefs led the league in EPA per play offensively at 0.179, comfortably ahead of the Bills, who ranked second at 0.111. In fact, only five other teams finished with an offensive EPA greater than that 0.068 difference between the Chiefs and the Bills. That’s a nerdy way of saying they were really good and significantly better than everyone else.

Free Agency Notes

The Chiefs have been busy in this year’s early free-agency window. Movement along the offensive line is most noteworthy, with Jawaan Taylor (Jaguars) coming on and likely shifting from right tackle to left tackle, replacing Orlando Brown, who’s now in Cincinnati. Last season’s right tackle, Andrew Wylie, is now a Commander, so they’ll either tap into their depth with Lucas Niang or look to address the position in the draft. JuJu Smith-Schuster (Patriots) and Mecole Hardman (Jets) are also gone, but the team is expecting more out of their first full season with Kadarius Toney, and the recent Richie James signing adds depth to the position.

Defensively, Mike Edwards (Buccaneers) replaces Juan Thornhill, who left for Cleveland. Former Chargers linebacker Drue Tranquill adds depth to play alongside Nick Bolton, and defensive end Charles Omenihu (49ers) replaces Frank Clark, who’s still a free agent as of this writing.

Remaining Roster Priorities

The Chiefs let Khalen Saunders leave in free agency, and they’re entering the last year of Chris Jones’s contract, so interior line help defensively is a priority. Outside of that, you can make a case that the Chiefs should continue to add depth to a wide receiver room lacking top-tier talent, and while that’s true, Travis Kelce changes the calculus a bit, being that he’s the defacto top pass-catcher for the Chiefs. Still, the Chiefs‘ goal should be to maximize their window to win while they have Patrick Mahomes, and supporting him in any way should be the top priority.

General Manager Brett Veach absolutely nailed last year’s draft, getting key contributions out of most of their ten selections, so I’m optimistic they’ll be able to make the most of their ten 2023 picks as well.

How To Bet On The Kansas City Chiefs

Taking the over on a double-digit win total or laying close to -150 on an NFL team to win its division is a tough sell for me in most instances. However, the Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes duo breaks the mold. There aren’t a lot of soft spots on the 2023 schedule, but at -110 on BetMGM, I’m willing to back the Chiefs to finish no worst than 12-5 on the season. That’s likely good enough to win the division again, but that’ll cost you -150 at most shops right now.