It took 24 fourth-quarter points to beat me in South Bend and a last-minute safety in Las Vegas to bury my Patriots +3 wager. That was the difference between a 3-1 card and a 1-3 one in sports betting.

Welp.

I’ve circled three college football games and two NFL wagers for this weekend. Remember, this space isn’t the place for a million picks or five-team parlays, either. These will always be the games I love the most.

Let’s go to work.

Texas Tech Red Raiders (-3, O/U 51) at BYU Cougars

I don’t expect Behren Morton to play.

That would put the Red Raiders on QB3 with Morton out and opening-week starter Tyler Shough already on the shelf. Prepare for a steady dosage of true freshman quarterback Jake Strong on the road in Provo.

That also explains the line move from +4.5 to +3.

BYU ran into an absolute buzz saw in Fort Worth last week, and I expect the Cougars to play more to their water level this week. If Texas Tech throws for 439 yards and four touchdowns like TCU did, I’ll tip my cap. But I’m putting my money on Kalani Sitake to have his squad ready in the ‘dog role.

Take the points.

PICK: BYU (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)

Pittsburgh Panthers at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-1, O/U 45.5)

Wake Forest is a mess offensively.

The Deacs are averaging 13 points per game over their last three, and the quarterback room is basically the walking wounded. Michael Kern is out with a shoulder injury, and Mitch Griffis took some big licks against Virginia Tech.

Don’t be surprised if we see some QB3 Santino Marucci.

Combine all that with Pittsburgh’s defensive-minded style, and this has all the makings of an ugly 20-17 rock fight. Explosive plays will be few and far between, and let’s not forget that Panthers head coach Pat Narduzzi rarely passes up an opportunity to kick a field goal on 4th and Goal from the 3.

Both offenses should struggle to find the end zone.

PICK: Under 45.5 points scored by both teams combined

Utah Utes at USC Trojans (-7, O/U 53)

It looks so easy to fade USC.

We all just watched the Trojans give up 48 points on national television last Saturday at Notre Dame. It was ugly and got uglier. Now USC is laying a touchdown?! Well, yeah, because Notre Dame and Utah are polar opposites.

The Irish clearly have the ability to move the ball through the air and on the ground while the Utes are still searching for answers on offense. It also sounds like Utah star quarterback Cam Rising won’t suit up at all this season, which is a big disappointment around Salt Lake City.

This is an ideal bounce-back spot for USC, and if the Trojans take an early lead, they could easily win it by multiple touchdowns.  

PICK: USC (-7) to win by more than 7 points

Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Rams (-3, O/U 44)

The Steelers’ offense stinks.

Yet somehow, they’ve found ways to squeak out two ugly, one-possession wins at home against the Browns and Ravens. Those AFC North games always feel up for grabs because the teams know each other so well.

A cross-country trip to California to face the Rams doesn’t exactly feel like a walk in the park. Los Angeles looks formidable on offense with star receiver Cooper Kupp back in the mix to operate opposite rookie Puka Nacua.

The Rams have three losses to good teams – 49ers, Bengals, Eagles – and I believe they’ll get out to an early 10-point lead and coast.  

PICK: Rams (-3) to win by more than 3 points

Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, O/U 51.5)

The Eagles’ sloppy play finally caught up to them.

After surviving and winning one-score games against teams like the Patriots, Vikings and Commanders, the Eagles turned the ball over four times against a very stingy Jets defense and lost a 20-14 rock fight.

I don’t think it’s as easy as flipping a switch, either.

Quarterback Jalen Hurts is a major reason for Philly’s red-zone struggles. He has the same amount of touchdowns (7) as interceptions (7), and the Eagles only score touchdowns on 45% of their red-zone opportunities. For context, they scored six at a 68% clip in 2022.  

Miami is a much better football team right now with an offense that’s as creative and diverse as… well… the Eagles were last year.

PICK: Dolphins (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points (or win outright)

2023 Record: (14-17-1, -4.5)

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He’ll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.