It’s no exaggeration to suggest the prolonged unseasonable run of warm and dry Weather is becoming concerning.

But a major Rain event is ahead for southern states this week.

This September will go down as the hottest and driest on record for parts of Australia, the number of regions entering drought is increasing rapidly, the bushfire risk is escalating each week and the outlook for the remainder of 2023 is grim.

What southern states desperately need is rain. 

A good soaking at this point in spring would be a win-win — adding moisture to the soil and vegetation, suppressing the short-term risk of fires, bringing relief from the relentless heat, and helping finish off crops before they are harvested.

Thankfully, the weather charts, even with the odds stacked firmly against them (El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole) have managed to summon a substantial drenching this week.

So what is this miraculous weather system bringing a sudden change in fortune?

A major cold front will surge north from the Southern Ocean during the coming days and clash with warm, tropical air moving south from waters off Australia’s northern coastline.

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This battle between contrasting air masses will lead to the formation of a deep low-pressure system over south-east Australia about the middle of the week.

The result will be widespread rain and possible flooding, strong to gale-force winds, a dramatic temperature drop, and possibly even heavy alpine snow.

So how much rain will fall in each region? Here is a state-by-state breakdown of the wild week of weather ahead:

Queensland

Apart from along the tropical coastline, the run of warm and sunny days will continue across Queensland this weekend.

The greatest departures from average will remain over the southern inland due to a northerly airstream blowing south from the tropics.

This pattern will continue through Monday and Tuesday before a cold front enters the state’s south-west on Wednesday and brings thunderstorms and a cool change.

The thundery change will spread through south-east districts on Thursday. However, modelling indicates the heaviest falls will remain well south of the border, and for most of southern Queensland the system will only bring one to 10 millimetres of rain.

NSW/ACT

The next seven days will bring extreme weather to NSW, including near-record heat, extreme fire dangers, a southerly buster, strong winds, heavy rain and even snow.

The warm temperatures have already arrived. Northerly winds on Saturday will send maximums to as much as 12 degrees Celsius above the September average for inland parts of the state.

The heat will intensify further on Sunday and spread to the southern and central coast as hot north-westerly winds keep out a sea breeze. The combination of hot air, fresh winds and low humidity will lead to extreme fire danger for the Hunter, Sydney and South Coast.

And Sydney is forecast to reach a sweltering 37C, the hottest in October for eight years and only one degree off the city’s all-time October record.

There’s a forecast of 36C for Sydney Olympic Park on Sunday, which would be the hottest maximum temperature for an NRL grand final on record.

As the Broncos and Panthers are sweating it out on Sunday evening, a gusty southerly change will be surging up the Illawarra coast, and it might even reach Sydney before the final whistle.

The change has the potential to be the first true southerly buster for Sydney since December 2021, remarkable considering the city averages five busters per year.

For clarification, buster criteria include a temperature drop of at least 5C in three hours and wind gusts in excess of 54 kilometres per hour.

Current modelling indicates gusts at Sydney Airport over 60kph and a three-hour drop of 8C.

The change will stall before reaching northern NSW and hot northerly winds will return to the entire state through Monday and Tuesday, sending highs close to 40C across the inland, including Western Sydney.

The near-record-high October temperatures will be followed by a vigorous cold front and deep low-pressure system, bringing widespread rain, storms, strong winds and even snow from Wednesday to Friday.

Canberra’s forecast gives an idea of the extreme change in weather: 30C Tuesday, then showers and 13C on Thursday.

Early indications are pointing towards totals from around 5mm in the north to 50mm in the far south, however, the eventual figures will be highly dependent on the low’s exact position.

What is more certain is this system will deliver the best rain in at least a few months, particularly for areas on and west of the ranges, but possibly including the South Coast if the low forms further east.

It would be an understatement to say this upcoming rain is welcome as, by Friday, 27 per cent of the state had entered some level of drought.

Victoria

Grand final Saturday will be one of the warmest on record. Melbourne should reach around 29C — 12C above average and only 2C off the all-time hottest temperature for a final, set in 2015.

The toasty final caps off an exceptionally warm and dry September for Melbourne where only 10.8mm has been collected by the official weather station at Olympic Park, well below the city’s 57mm monthly average and the lowest on record (data to 1855).

A cool but mostly dry change will sweep east through Victoria on Sunday, however warm northerly winds will quickly re-develop on Monday and send maximums back to the 30s in the north-west, as much as 10C above October averages.

Mark Tuesday down in your calendar as not a day to rely on a simple app forecast or glance out the window. A powerful front will sweep through the state and bring a rapid deterioration in weather conditions.

Melbourne, for example, could be about 25C early in the morning then shivering under rain and cool gusty southerlies in the afternoon.

The front will cause a low-pressure system to form close to Victoria on Wednesday and Thursday, bringing widespread heavy rain and strong winds.

Early indications suggest well over 100mm could fall over the state’s east (depending on the low’s position), enough for flooding in Gippsland and possibly central districts.

The system also has the potential to bring rare land gales, which could lead to downed trees and power outages along with heavy alpine snow.

Tasmania

After a pleasant Saturday, Tasmania can expect a blast of wind and showers on Sunday as a front sweeps rapidly across the state.

A second front will then arrive on Tuesday with another cool change and further showers, although severe weather should initially be confined to the mainland.

The front will cause a low-pressure system to form close to Victoria from Wednesday, and if the system tracks close enough to Tasmania on Thursday, rain and strong winds are possible in the state’s east.

Considering the recent dry conditions and fires, this would be a welcome outcome and would ease the threat of further fires in the short term.

South Australia

In terms of maximums, it has been Adelaide’s second-hottest September on record, but the warm weather is far from settled in for summer.

South Australia’s weather will be so volatile this week, you could be forgiven for questioning what season it is.

A hot Saturday will turn into a mild Sunday, followed by a scorching Monday then a cooler Tuesday and freezing Wednesday.

The bouncing thermometer will produce a run of forecasts for Adelaide of 32C, 21C, 32C, 21C and 17C.

To demonstrate how unusual such variability is, even for changeable spring, Saturday’s 32C would be Adelaide’s warmest September day in 15 years, while a maximum of 17C on Wednesday would be 4C below the October average.

While the first cool change from Saturday to Sunday will be dry and severe weather is unlikely, the next change on Monday night will bring gusty winds, showers and 24-hour temperature drops of up to 20C.

Western Australia

After September record maximums were observed for four consecutive days this week, a cool westerly airstream has now lowered temperatures across southern WA. Although, the north is still baking in highs near 40C.

The heat this week was extraordinary, leading to more than 40 towns passing a September record, including 34.3C in Perth on Wednesday.

The most significant weather system of the next week will arrive on Monday and Tuesday. A strong cold front will bring polar air, strong winds and showers to the south.

A warning is possible for damaging wind gusts and damaging surf near the southern coast, and it may even be cold enough for October snow on Bluff Knoll.

While Perth will experience noticeably cooler and wetter weather to start the week, it is unlikely the city will be under any severe weather warnings.

Northern Territory

The territory will remain hot and dry through the first days of the wet season, which officially commences on Sunday.

By Wednesday, two changes in the weather will become apparent. For the south, winds will turn much cooler southerly and cause Alice Springs to drop by about 12C in 24 hours.

For the north, a build-up of humidity will allow a few storms to pop up in the afternoons – the first of the wet season. 

However, the monsoon is still months away.