In all states therefore there exist three divisions of the state, the very rich, the very poor and thirdly those who are between the two. Since then it is admitted that what is moderate or in the middle is best, it is manifest that the middle amount of all of the good things of fortune is the best amount to possess.

— Aristotle, “Politics”

Who are we to argue with the original Greek Freak?

Those in the middle 10 of this year’s NBA offseason rankings aren’t guaranteed a great 2023-24 season, but again, that’s not what this is designed to be. It isn’t predictive. It’s just an opinion on how improved (if at all) a team is compared to where it was at the end of the season. That could mean a franchise took a needed step back out of mediocrity to start over or continues to build smartly on what came before. It could mean new owners with deeper pockets may be coming to the rescue, or a team may be moving into a new building that can bring in much-needed new revenue. Or, an already-contending team made an impactful trade or free agent signing that will keep it in the hunt for the next season or two. In today’s NBA, you can’t plan for more than a year or two down the road, anyway.

“Thus it is manifest that the best political community is formed by citizens of the middle class, and that those states are likely to be well-administered in which the middle class is large, and stronger if possible than both the other classes, or at any rate than either singly; for the addition of the middle class turns the scale, and prevents either of the extremes from being dominant,” wrote Aristotle.

Adam Silver, having long ago heard the siren call of competitive balance, gently weeps.

In case you missed it, in the first piece of this year’s series, I explained what you need to know about these rankings and the methodology behind them. Now let’s dive into teams No. 20 to No. 11.

Salary numbers, with a couple of exceptions, come from Spotrac, which stays on top of this stuff as well as anyone east of Eric Pincus of Bleacher Report. Draft pick details from both Spotrac and Real GM.

2022-23 regular-season record: 44-38; lost in second round

Added: G Chris Paul (acquired from Washington); F Dario Šarić (one year); G Brandin Podziemski (first round, 19th pick overall); F Trayce Jackson-Davis (draft rights Acquired from Washington); G Lester Quinones (two-way); hired general manager Mike Dunleavy Jr.
Lost: G Jordan Poole (traded to Washington); G Donte DiVincenzo (signed with Knicks); G Ty Jerome (signed with Cleveland); F Patrick Baldwin, Jr. (traded to Washington); G Ryan Rollins (traded to Washington); general manager Bob Myers (resigned); 2030 (protected 1-20) first-round pick (traded to Washington); 2027 second-round pick (traded to Washington)
Retained: F Draymond Green (four years, $100M)
Extended: None
Returning from injury: None

The skinny: Big gamble for the Dubs, not just because of CP3’s age, his injury history, his previous history with Golden State’s top guys or because we have no idea how coach Steve Kerr will split up his top guards’ minutes. But add the departure of Myers, who was so instrumental in keeping things running smoothly during the championship run, and the Dubs will have a lot of unproven parts to their core going forward. They’ve abandoned the two-track approach for the most part, leaning even more on their vets. Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green and Kevon Looney could win a lot of games next season. But that (potential) bench after Paul and Gary Payton II is … thin. A team that struggled to get out of the first round last spring doesn’t look built for another deep run.

2022-23 record: 27-55; did not make playoffs

Added: F Brandon Miller (first round, second pick overall); G Nick Smith Jr. (first round, 27th pick overall); C James Nnaji (draft rights acquired from Charlotte); G Amari Bailey (second round, 41st pick overall); F Leaky Black (two-way); team sold by Michael Jordan to Rick Schnall-Gabe Plotkin group
Lost: G Colby Jones (draft rights traded to Sacramento)
Retained: F Miles Bridges (one year, $7.9M)
Extended: G LaMelo Ball (five years, $205M)
Returning from injury: C Mark Williams (thumb); F Cody Martin (knee)
Returning from suspension: Bridges

The skinny: History will not be kind to the Hornets if Scoot Henderson, who Charlotte passed on with the second pick in the draft, blows up in Portland. But if you’re going to bet on someone in this league, I was told a long time ago, bet on size. And at 6 foot 9, Miller has all the offensive tools to be a dynamic player, making for potentially spicy passing nights with Ball, so you can’t just assume Henderson will be the better pro. Smith brings a lot of offensive possibilities too. Bridges sat out the season after an offseason domestic violence incident involving the mother of his children. He pleaded no contest to a felony domestic violence charge in November and faces three years of probation but no jail time as part of a deal with prosecutors. He will begin the season by serving an additional 10-game suspension (20 games of his suspension are already considered served). And while there were rumors Ball was unhappy in Charlotte, he re-upped, perhaps expressing confidence that the new ownership group has the kind of pockets necessary to compete.

2022-23 record: 45-37; lost in first round

Added: G Dennis Smith Jr. (one year, $2.5M); F Darius Bazley (one year, $2.17M); G Lonnie Walker IV (one year, $2.34M); F Noah Clowney (first round, 21st pick overall); F/G Dariq Whitehead (first round, 22nd pick overall); F Jalen Wilson (second round, 51st pick overall); G Armoni Brooks (two-way)
Lost: G/F Joe Harris (traded to Detroit); G Patty Mills (traded to Houston); G Edmond Summer (waived); F RaiQuan Gray (waived); F LaMarcus Aldridge (retired)
Retained: F Cameron Johnson (four years, $108M); F Royce O’Neale (picked up $9.5M 2023-24 team option)
Extended: None
Returning from injury: G Ben Simmons (back)

The skinny: Considering where Brooklyn was drafting, getting Clowney that late was a good value. (Yes, he wasn’t great in summer league. Unless they are jerks to their teammates and don’t do what their coaches ask them to do, I don’t care about how guys play in summer league.) And the Nets were able to hold off other suitors for Johnson; it’s a big payday, but I get wanting to keep someone with his range on the floor alongside Mikal Bridges and Nic Claxton. Taking one-year fliers on Smith and Walker, the hero of the Lakers’ Game 4 win over the Warriors in the second round last season, is OK. If you have an idea of what Simmons has left, please DM coach Jacque Vaughn.

2022-23 record: 40-42; lost in Play-In Tournament

Added: G Victor Oladipo (acquired from Miami); F Dāvis Bertāns (acquired from Dallas); G Vasilije Micić (three years, $23.5M); F Jack White (two years, $3.9M); Cason Wallace (draft rights acquired from Dallas); G Keyontae Johnson (second round, 50th pick overall); 2029 first-round pick (acquired from Denver)
Lost: F Rudy Gay (waived); G TyTy Washington (waived); C Dereck Lively II (draft rights traded to Dallas); F Hunter Tyson (draft rights traded to Denver); 2024 second-round pick (traded to Denver); vice president of basketball operations Will Dawkins (left for GM job in Washington)
Retained: G/F Lindy Waters III (two-way)
Extended: Coach Mark Daignault
Returning from injury: F/C Chet Holmgren (right foot Lisfranc); Oladipo (torn left patellar tendon); F Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (ankle)

The skinny: Bertāns is overpriced for his production. I do like Wallace’s potential down the road, but he’s not likely to see much time this season behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Micić, who finally made the jump after remaining in Europe several years after going in the 2014 NBA Draft. In Las Vegas, Holmgren proved that he has recovered from his injury. His presence resets the board in OKC, allowing Daignault to lean into his already-set rotation as the Thunder’s young core continues to develop together.

2022-23 record: 41-41; lost in Play-In Tournament

Added: G Patty Mills (acquired from Houston via Brooklyn and Oklahoma City); G Wesley Matthews (one year, $3.2M); G Kobe Bufkin (first round, 15th pick overall); C Mouhamed Gueye (draft rights acquired from Boston); G Seth Lundy (second round, 46th pick overall); $25.3M traded player exception (John Collins trade); 2026 second-round pick (conditional; between Nos. 31 and 42, acquired from Utah)
Lost: F John Collins (traded to Utah); F Alpha Kaba (traded to Houston); F Donovan Williams (waived); G Tyrese Martin (waived); F Vít Krejčí (waived); G Lou Williams (retired); future second-round pick (Collins trade)
Retained: C Bruno Fernando (picked up $2.58M team option for 2023-24)
Extended: G Dejounte Murray (four years, $114M)
Returning from injury: None

The skinny: Finally, both the Hawks and Collins can move on. The return wasn’t great, but given Collins’ reduction in touches and the Hawks’ pecking order the last couple of seasons, it wasn’t all that surprising either. You have to bet on a full season of Quin Snyder on Atlanta’s bench to have hope for a major move up in the East next season, though it’s also encouraging Murray was willing to re-up. Mills and Matthews will help lengthen the rotation, as will Bufkin, whom a lot of scouts I spoke with before the draft liked. The traded player exception — the biggest in the league — could be put to good use too now that the Hawks aren’t in danger of getting anywhere near the second apron next season.

2022-23 record: 17-65; did not make playoffs

Added: G/F Joe Harris (acquired from Brooklyn); G Monté Morris (acquired from Washington); F Ausar Thompson (first round, fifth pick overall); G Marcus Sasser (draft rights acquired from Memphis); G Malcolm Cazalon (two-way); G Jared Rhoden (two-way); G Tosan Evbuomwan (Exhibit 10); G Buddy Boeheim (Exhibit 10); 2027, 2029 second-round picks (acquired from Brooklyn); hired coach Monty Williams
Lost: C Balsa Koprivica (traded to Clippers); F Eugene Omoruyi (waived); C James Nnaji (trade rights traded to Charlotte); 2024 first-round pick (traded to Indiana); future second-round pick (traded to Washington); coach Dwane Casey resigned
Retained: G Alec Burks ($10.5M team option)
Extended: C Isaiah Stewart (four years, $60M)
Returning from injury: G Cade Cunningham (shin surgery); Stewart (left shoulder impingement); F Hamidou Diallo (sprained ankle); G Rodney McGruder (left foot sprain)

The skinny: Yes, the Pistons overpaid for Williams, but I understand why. This is still a very young team. Thompson joins Cunningham and Jaden Ivey among the precocious Detroit talents with James Wiseman and Jalen Duren also finding their way. Williams will demand accountability. I would ask, though: Why would any opponent ever leave Harris, given the Pistons’ current frontcourt? And that remains the rub for the Pistons. Yes, Cunningham’s return will help immensely, but Detroit’s offensive numbers, across the board, were abysmal last season (28th in adjusted offensive rating, per Basketball Reference; 22nd in 3-point percentage; 29th in plus-minus; 26th in true shooting percentage; 27th in effective field goal percentage). Sasser’s last two seasons at Houston point to 3-point potential, at least.

2022-23 record: 58-24; lost in first round

Added: G Malik Beasley (one year, $2.7M); C Robin Lopez (one year, $3.2M); Andre Jackson Jr. (draft rights acquired from Orlando); F Chris Livingston (second round, 58th pick overall); C Drew Timme (Exhibit 10); hired coach Adrian Griffin
Lost: G Jevon Carter (signed with Chicago); fired coach Mike Budenholzer
Retained: F Khris Middleton (three years, $102M); C Brook Lopez (two years, $48M); F Jae Crowder (one year, $2M); F Thanasis Antetokounmpo (one year, $2.35M)
Extended: None
Returning from injury: None

The skinny: Griffin certainly has great potential as the head guy, but moving on from Budenholzer, even after a first-round collapse against Miami, for a first-time head coach is a gamble. Budenholzer led the Bucks to a championship and created the blueprint that unleashed Giannis Antetokounmpo offensively. (Yes, he also struggled to keep Giannis unleashed afterward.) At the least, the Bucks were able to retain enough of the roster to take at least one more run at it. Keeping Brook Lopez was central, and adding brother Robin means endless laughs on the Bucks’ bench and in the locker room. Jackson might find minutes at the back of the rotation. Beasley could be a sneaky good pickup, but there’s no guarantee for the 26-year-old. Milwaukee will be his fourth team in the last couple of years.

13. New York Knicks

2022-23 record: 47-35; lost in second round

Added: G Donte DiVincenzo (four years, $50M); two future second-round picks (acquired from Indiana); F Jaylen Martin (two-way); F Nathan Knight (two-way); F Dylan Windler (two-way); G Duane Washington Jr. (two-way)
Lost: F Obi Toppin (traded to Indiana); G Derrick Rose (signed with Memphis); G Trevor Keels (waived)
Retained: G Miles McBride (team picked up $1.83M option for 2023-24); C Jericho Sims ($1.9M guarantee picked up for 2023-24)
Extended: G Josh Hart (four years, $81M)
Returning from injury: F Julius Randle (ankle)

The skinny: More solid work from Leon Rose and crew in getting the Hart deal done quickly, giving coach Tom Thibodeau a very strong quintet of Jalen Brunson, Hart, Quentin Grimes, DiVincenzo and Immanuel Quickley to utilize. That feels like at least one guard too many in a normal rotation, but Hart and/or Grimes can and likely will scale up to the three when needed. A bit of an overpay for DiVincenzo, but nothing about which to get back-page angry. I’m glad New York didn’t take the bait in search of another star and move off RJ Barrett after a strong postseason. With their numerous future first-round picks and strong guard rotation, the Knicks remain poised to make a big run for the next non-Damian Lillard superstar who comes on the market. Perhaps a Cameroon native?

12. Washington Wizards

2022-23 record: 35-47; did not make playoffs

Added: G Jordan Poole (acquired from Golden State); G Tyus Jones (acquired from Memphis); G Landry Shamet (acquired from Phoenix); F Danilo Gallinari (acquired from Boston); F/C Mike Muscala (acquired from Boston); F Patrick Baldwin Jr. (acquired from Golden State); G Ryan Rollins (acquired from Golden State); F Bilal Coulibaly (draft rights acquired from Indiana); F/C Tristan Vukčević (second round, 42nd pick overall); F Eugene Omoruyi (two-way); G Jared Butler (two-way); 2024, ’26, ’28, ’30 first-round pick swaps (acquired from Phoenix); 2030 (protected 1-20) first-round pick (acquired from Golden State); 2027 second-round pick (acquired from Golden State); 2024, ’25, ’26, ’27, ’28 and ’30 second-round picks (acquired from Phoenix); 2026, ’27 second-round picks (acquired from Chicago); 2027 second-round pick (acquired from Detroit); $11.7M traded player exception (Kristaps Porziņģis trade); $9.8M traded player exception (Monté Morris trade); hired president of Monumental Basketball Michael Winger, general manager Will Dawkins, senior vice president of player personnel Travis Schlenk
Lost: G Bradley Beal (traded to Phoenix); F Kristaps Porziņģis (traded to Boston); G Monté Morris (traded to Detroit); G Jordan Goodwin (traded to Phoenix); F Isaiah Todd (traded to Phoenix); G Chris Paul (traded to Golden State); F Jarace Walker (draft rights traded to Indiana); F Trayce Jackson-Davis (draft rights traded to Golden State); F Julian Phillips (draft rights traded to Chicago); G Quenton Jackson (waived); two 2028 second-round picks (traded to Indiana); fired general manager Tommy Sheppard
Retained: F Kyle Kuzma (four years, $90M)
Extended: None
Returning from injury: Gallinari (torn ACL)

The skinny: At long last, give the Wizards credit for not running it back. They blew most of it up — not all, which I thought was in the offing after they traded Beal and Porziņģis. The idea was/is that they didn’t want to leave their young guys, starting with the very young (just turned 19) Coulibaly, to fend for themselves. (Unsaid: With the minimum salary-cap rules in the new CBA, the Wizards had to spend on somebody.) Thus, Washington re-upped Kuzma on a descending deal and turned a few days of Paul into the mercurial Poole, who’ll get all the shots he wants in D.C. Yes, the Beal trade was awful from the Wizards’ perspective, but Washington should have traded Beal at least two years ago, and the new guys didn’t give Beal his no-trade clause, so it’s hard to dock them for the relatively poor return. Bottom line: Washington has a lot of picks, movable pieces and cap flexibility going forward, as it finally begins its rebuild.

2022-23 record: 37-45; did not make playoffs

Added: F/C John Collins (acquired from Atlanta); F Taylor Hendricks (first round, ninth pick overall); G Keyonte George (first round, 16th pick overall); G Brice Sensabaugh (first round, 28th pick overall); G Johnny Juzang (two-way); F Joey Hauser (two-way)
Lost: F Rudy Gay (traded to Atlanta); C Damian Jones (traded to Cleveland); 2026 second-round pick (conditional; between 31 and 42, traded to Atlanta)
Retained: G Talen Horton-Tucker (picked up $11M player option for 2023-24); F Luka Šamanić (team picked up guarantee for 2023-24)
Extended: G Jordan Clarkson (three years, $55M, renegotiation-and-extension)
Returning from injury: C Walker Kessler (concussion)

The skinny: I’m putting Collins down for a renaissance in the Wasatch, getting back to the form he displayed his first couple of seasons in Atlanta. At his still-reasonable cap number, that would be like a B-plus free-agent pickup for Utah. Add in the potential high value of Hendricks, who played his way onto all the top-10 draft boards, along with George, and even though the Jazz couldn’t move up into the top five like they wanted, that’s still a good night’s work. If Utah did make Collin Sexton available in trade talks, which was rumored before the draft, the Jazz may have a reckoning down the road with their 24-year-old point guard. Until then, it’s full steam ahead for coach Will Hardy with more talent arriving to augment the core.

(Illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic; photos: Cole Burston, Melissa Majchrzak, Zach Beeker / Getty Images)