The Nuggets were much the best against the Suns in Game 1, and with the venue remaining the same for Game 2, our NBA betting picks aren’t picturing a miraculous turnaround for visiting Phoenix.

What if the Denver Nuggets are just better than the Phoenix Suns? The rout in Game 1 at least requires that thought be considered, even if it is a bold one given the Suns’ star-studded roster. Phoenix may need someone besides Kevin Durant and Devin Booker to step forward tonight to even this series before it heads back to the desert.

Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for Suns vs Nuggets on May 1.

Suns vs Nuggets Game 2 best odds

Suns vs Nuggets Game 2 picks and predictions

The Nuggets finished eight games ahead of the Suns in the regular season, and Denver’s point differential was 1.3 points per game better than Phoenix’s.

Of course, the Suns did not have Kevin Durant for most of the season. They did, however, have Durant for two regular-season games against the Nuggets, two games in which Denver covered the spread. By then, the Nuggets were largely cruising into the playoffs, but they still focused enough to prevail as far as gamblers were concerned.

Those two games may have been a peek into the struggles that would eventually come for Phoenix. The Suns are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games, including 2-4 in the postseason. This may be who they are.

And who Denver is, well that’s simple. Denver is a covering machine at home. The Nuggets are 25-13-1 ATS at home this year, not to mention 35-4 straight up.

Tonight’s spread of -4 in Denver’s favor is just half a point off from Saturday’s, though oddly enough, the Nuggets’ 18-point win on Saturday led to this spread being a half-point tighter, not wider. The only logic to that is the tried-and-true gambling axiom, “No team is as good or as bad as its previous game.”

Denver should not be expected to win by 20 tonight, and the Suns will probably make more than seven 3s. But it may not be that many more than seven. Phoenix made only 11.3 threes per game in the final weeks of the regular season, when Durant had returned from injury. That has fallen to 9.2 per game in the playoffs.

That is not enough, and that is reason to continue to doubt the Suns. As great as Durant and Devin Booker are individually, their efficiency is not enough to counter the Nuggets’ shooting from deep. Denver has made 13.2 threes per game in the postseason, and that 12-point difference alone should spur the Nuggets to yet another cover at home, and yet another cover against the Durant-led Suns.

My best bet: Nuggets -4 (-110 at FanDuel)

Suns vs Nuggets same-game parlay

Underestimate the Nuggets’ home success this season at your own risk. There has been no moment that suggested it was anything but thoroughly valid. Jamal Murray’s gradual return to full health has been part of that, and that was clear on Saturday night as he poured in 34 points on 24 shots, including going 6-of-10 from deep.

That kind of explosion from range may not repeat itself tonight, but his points prop is low enough that Murray should not need to excel from range. He averaged five free throw attempts per game in Denver’s first-round win against the Timberwolves, compared to just two shots from the stripe on Saturday. If he can compensate for fewer threes with a few more free throws, clearing 25.5 points should not be a stressor.

And then there is Durant, who grabbed 14 rebounds in Game 1. While typing up this same-game parlay early Monday afternoon, his prop fell to 7.5 from 8.5, with the juice flipping along with it. That cut the total parlay payout from greater than +500 to +388, and it suggests leaning toward the Over is poor form. But Durant will need to be aggressive to even this series, and that aggression should show up across the box score.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Suns vs Nuggets Game 2 spread and Over/Under analysis

This spread opened at 4.5 points after Saturday’s result, reflecting how that game’s spread closed, as well. After an initial push to -5.0, this fell to -4.0 on Monday, and it reeks of faith in Durant and Booker.

Doubting Denver like that at home has not worked this season. Leaning into it now holds little logic, unless banking entirely on a letdown from the Nuggets after getting ahead in the series.

The total opened at 227.5 or 228.0, depending on your book, and ticked up slightly to 229.0. Looking at Game 1, the areas for more points largely come from Phoenix’s offense: The Suns simply did not shoot enough threes, let alone make them, and they also attempted only 17 free throws. No one in a Phoenix uniform hit multiple 3s, and only Booker took more than four free throws. A clear need for more offensive aggression should be enough to spur tonight’s game Over the total.

Suns vs Nuggets betting trend to know

The Over is 7-1-1 in Phoenix’s last nine games. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Nuggets.

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