Bulls vs. Raptors Odds

Wednesday night brings us our first elimination games of the NBA Play-In Tournament, and we’re starting up north in Canada as the Raptors take on the Bulls.

It could be a bit of an ugly game. Both teams have been wildly inconsistent as they struggled to find consistent offense all season long, so add in the high stakes of an elimination spot, and this could be a grind.

Let’s see if we can take advantage of the defensive nature of this game and build a Same Game Parlay to make this one worth our time.

NBA Same Game Parlay Odds & Pick

The Parlay: (+900)

• Under 213.5 (-115)
• Jakob Poeltl 1+ steal (-150)
• Alex Caruso 1+ block (-105)
• Fred VanVleet 3+ threes (-125)

Pick No. 1: Under 213.5

If we’re thinking ugly and low-scoring, we have to start with the under.

These teams played three times in the regular season, and we saw just 217, 208 and 202 points in the three games. That’s an average of just 209.0 PPG, going under this total in two of the three, and those two games played out a a glacial pace. Toronto loves to slow the pace and grind other than when they can push in transition off a turnover. The Bulls did rack up 19 turnovers a game in these three matchups, so that could stymie Chicago’s scoring even further.

Unders went 2-0 on Tuesday night and continue to be wildly profitable in these Play-In games, and it makes sense. Unders are famously profitable in Game 7s historically, and this is effectively a sudden death Game 7. Unders also smashed in March Madness and do many years in that format, another similar comparison here.

Add in the lackluster offenses and struggles we’ve seen from both these teams all year, and we have to start with the under.

Pick No. 2: Jakob Poeltl 1+ Steal

The one thing the Raptors are truly elite at is winning the turnover battle. The Raptors commit the fewest turnovers of any team in the league, and they also force more turnovers than any team in the league. That’s a lethal combination that gives Toronto an average of five additional possessions compared to its opponent each game.

Toronto’s defense quietly improved to fourth in Defensive Rating since acquiring Jakob Poeltl at the trade deadline, and his defense has anchored the team and will be very important against Nikola Vucevic. Vucevic averages only 1.7 turnovers a game for the season but had three of his worst turnover games of the year against the Raptors, with four, five and six turnovers.

Poeltl will be Vucevic’s main defender, and Poeltl has at least one steal in 17 of 26 Raptors appearances, almost two in every three. That would imply near -200, and he had three steals in his one Toronto game against the Bulls.

Pick No. 3: Alex Caruso 1+ Block

If we’re getting ugly and playing a defensive card, there’s no way we’re leaving Alex Caruso off the parlay.

Caruso looks like a strong candidate for All-Defense this year, and he’s been a huge difference maker for a surprisingly stout Chicago defense. Caruso is an elite point-of-attack guard defender and an outstanding playmaker on that end. He has quick hands and great positioning.

Remember, though, Toronto commits fewer turnovers than any team in the league, and Caruso’s steal lines are being priced too high. But even at his size, he gets a good number of blocks too. In fact, Caruso has a block in five straight games entering this matchup, and he had at least one block in all three Raptors games this year, averaging 1.7 BPG.

Toronto is not a big team, so Caruso can block any Raptor at any time with his quick playmaking. All we need is one.

Pick No. 4: Fred VanVleet 3+ Made 3s

Alright, fine, let’s throw one piece of offense into the mix.

We don’t want too many offensive overs here with the profile we’re building, but you have to believe Fred VanVleet plays every second he can in an elimination game, and that should mean a boatload of 3-point attempts.

Chicago allows the second-most 3-point attempts and makes in the NBA. In three games against the Bulls this year, VanVleet took 32 treys, an average of 10.7 attempts per game with at least nine in each game. That’s up from his 8.8 3pa/g average in season, and that’s before adding a few extra minutes on the court.

VanVleet averaged 3.7 treys on 9.7 attempts his last two playoffs, and this pick is relatively script-proof. If the Raptors are ahead, VanVleet probably played a role. If they’re behind, he’ll probably have to fire up some 3s to spur a comeback.

We should get double-digit attempts, and we only need three makes. And the best part about this SGP is that we only need five events — three treys, a steal, and a block — in an otherwise ugly game, so we could have nothing into the fourth quarter and still get this home.

Let’s get ugly and play this at +900 for the win.

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