The Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots, two AFC East rivals, met three times last year, including in the AFC Wild Card round. That gives us a lot of data to make our Bills vs. Patriots NFL player props for Week 8 based on the best NFL odds.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen hurt his throwing shoulder in the second quarter of a 14-9 win last week against the New York Giants. Meanwhile, the Patriots fell to 1-5 after last week’s 21-17 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders. It is New England’s worst since 1995 under Bill Parcells, and it has gone five straight games with 17 or fewer points for the first time under Bill Belichick.

How does that affect our thinking regarding player props for this AFC East battle?

Check out other NFL Week 7 Odds and lines and accompanying  NFL Week 7 predictions. To complement our Bills vs. Patriots predictions, here are our best Bills vs. Patriots NFL player props for Week 7 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Bills vs. Patriots NFL player props: Week 7

Stefon Diggs Under 83.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365)

Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs has made great use of his league-leading 31.2% target share from quarterback Josh Allen, as he is the only player with at least 100 receiving yards in five games this season. While New England runs man coverage at the third-highest rate in the league, we expect head coach Bill Belichick to have something up his sleeve to defend Diggs, who seems like the Bills’ only reliable target. 

Diggs has totaled 85-plus receiving yards in five of six matchups against the Patriots as a member of the Bills, which has us intrigued that the oddsmakers know something here. In addition, our optimism for this Under stems from Patriots cornerback J.C. Jackson allowing less than a 40% catch rate in coverage, and the fact that the Bills coaching staff should rely on the passing attack less with Allen’s shoulder ailing, and the team playing on Thursday night next week.

The other two sportsbooks (BetMGM and DraftKings) juiced the Under (- 115) when Diggs’ Over/Uunder for receiving yards was set at 83.5. We are getting a slightly better number than the 81.5 yards offered at FanDuel.

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Rhamondre Stevenson Over 43.5 rushing yards (-110 via bet365)

It feels like it is now or never for Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson, as he faces a Bills rushing defense that allows the eighth-most rushing yards per game (133.7), has the third-highest missed tackle percentage (18%), and has allowed the fifth-most runs of 10-plus yards (20). 

Per Dwain McFarland, entering last week, Stevenson’s 10-plus yard carries, average yards after contact, missed tackles forced, and PFF Rush Grade were all down significantly from last season.

However, Belichick is well aware of Buffalo’s fierce pass rush (the Bills have the most sacks and the sixth-highest pressure rate in the league), so look for a heavy ground-and-pound game to protect a pass-blocking unit that ranks eighth-lowest in pressure rate allowed. 

bet365 is the only sportsbook where one can back Stevenson’s Over at standard -110 odds, while others like DraftKings have the Over juiced as high as -120.

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Gabe Davis anytime touchdown scorer (+240 via FanDuel)

If Josh Allen’s shoulder is right and we are correct about New England’s ability to key in on Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis should be the biggest beneficiary. These odds are way too high for a wide receiver playing with a quarterback that has a 12-2 TD-INT ratio and 83 Total QBR in five road starts at New England.

Per ESPN.com, that is the third-highest road QBR by a quarterback against a single opponent since 2006. We do not expect Bills tight ends Dawson Knox or Dalton Kincaid to steal many red zone targets away from Davis, as the two have combined for just six red zone targets through the first six weeks, and the Patriots have allowed just one receiving touchdown to the position. 

This play is more about value than anything else, as Davis’s anytime touchdown scorer odds are as low as +140 at BetMGM, and DraftKings is the only other sportsbook besides FanDuel offering better than +200 odds (+205).

Bills vs. Patriots player props made 10/20/2023 at 4:02 p.m. ET

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