Week 7’s weekend action is right around the corner, and the betting market is loaded with player props. That’s why we’re bringing you the NFL betting playbook, highlighting some of the top options for each game.
Now, you may already be familiar with my weekly playbook for fantasy football, which features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long and DFS leagues. Similarly, my weekly betting playbook features several data points for each of this weekend’s scheduled games, along with my analysis of a few notable lines I’m interested in betting, though this article is designed in a way that allows you to pick your own favorites.
Note: All lines are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and were correct as of time of publication.
Las Vegas Raiders -2.5 @ Chicago Bears
Soldier Field, Chicago
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Money Line: Las Vegas Raiders (-140) ; Chicago Bears (+118)
Total: 37.5; Opened: NL
FPI favorite: Bears by 1.3 (53.9% to win outright)
Projected Score: Raiders 20, Bears 16
Top Player Props for Raiders-Bears
| PLAYER | POS | Tm | Category | Prop | Odds | Proj | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | RB | LV | Ru Yd | 73.5 | -118 O, -118 U | 68.8 | Under |
| Zamir White | RB | LV | Any TD | 0.5 | +1000 | 0.1 | Under |
| Daniel Carlson | K | LV | XPM | 1.5 | -185 O, +133 U | 1.9 | Over |
| Daniel Carlson | K | LV | K Pts | 6.5 | -118 O, -118 U | 6.9 | Over |
| Maxx Crosby | DE | LV | D Sk | 0.8 | -149 O, +120 U | 0.9 | Over |
| D.J. Moore | WR | CHI | Rec | 4.5 | +123 O, -169 U | 4.9 | Over |
| Darnell Mooney | WR | CHI | Rec | 2.5 | +126 O, -175 U | 2.5 | Under |
| Cole Kmet | TE | CHI | Rec | 3.5 | +112 O, -154 U | 4.0 | Over |
| Cairo Santos | K | CHI | XPM | 1.5 | -164 O, +118 U | 1.5 | Under |
| Cairo Santos | K | CHI | K Pts | 5.5 | -132 O, -104 U | 6.1 | Over |
| Tremaine Edmunds | ILB | CHI | Tkl | 7.5 | -152 O, +110 U | 8.4 | Over |
| T.J. Edwards | ILB | CHI | Tkl | 9.5 | -108 O, -127 U | 10.1 | Over |
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Tremaine Edmunds over 7.5 total tackles (-152): We’re lacking many standout plays in this game, but Edmunds has some slight value. The veteran linebacker produced at least 8.0 tackles in his first five games with Chicago prior to a rare slip to 6.0 in Week 6. Edmunds was on the field for 100% of the snaps last week, so the dip in tackles seems fluky. He’s a good bet to get back on track against the Jimmy Garoppolo-less Raiders.
Over/Under: 36.2 (13th highest)
Win Probability: Raiders 63% (10th highest)
Cleveland Browns -3 @ Indianapolis Colts
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Money Line: Cleveland Browns (-170) ; Indianapolis Colts (+143)
Total: 40.5; Opened: 39
FPI favorite: Browns by 3.6 (60.3% to win outright)
Line Movement Alert: Opened Browns -1
Projected Score: Browns 21, Colts 16
Top Player Props for Browns-Colts
| PLAYER | POS | Tm | Category | Prop | Odds | Proj | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Ford | RB | CLV | Ru Yd | 55.5 | -109 O, -125 U | 52.2 | Under |
| Dustin Hopkins | K | CLV | K Pts | 6.5 | -118 O, -118 U | 7.0 | Over |
| Gardner Minshew | QB | IND | Ps Yd | 193.5 | -118 O, -118 U | 216.7 | Over |
| Gardner Minshew | QB | IND | Ps TD | 0.5 | -222 O, +159 U | 0.8 | Over |
| Gardner Minshew | QB | IND | Ps+Ru Yd | 202.5 | -115 O, -115 U | 224.2 | Over |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | IND | Ru Yd | 44.5 | -125 O, -109 U | 54.2 | Over |
| Zack Moss | RB | IND | Ru Yd | 35.5 | -118 O, -118 U | 40.0 | Over |
| Michael Pittman | WR | IND | Re Yd | 49.5 | -119 O, -115 U | 62.1 | Over |
| Matt Gay | K | IND | XPM | 1.5 | -120 O, -114 U | 1.4 | Under |
| Matt Gay | K | IND | K Pts | 6.5 | -103 O, -133 U | 6.1 | Under |
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Matt Gay under 6.5 kicking points (-133): Gay has gone over this line in four out of six games, but getting to FG range might be tricky for an Anthony Richardson-less Colts offense against an elite Cleveland defense. The Browns defense has allowed the fewest yards (200.4) and points per game (12.6) this season and opposing kickers have attempted just 1.6 field goals per game against them. Gay has been his usual terrific self (11-of-12 on field goals and perfect on extra points), but two made field goals and an extra point may be a lot to ask in this matchup.
Over/Under: 36.9 (11th highest)
Win Probability: Browns 67% (7th highest)
Buffalo Bills -8.5 @ New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Money Line: Buffalo Bills (-420) ; New England Patriots (+320)
Total: 40; Opened: 40
FPI favorite: Bills by 12.3 (81.5% to win outright)
Projected Score: Bills 26, Patriots 13
Top Player Props for Bills-Patriots
| PLAYER | POS | Tm | Category | Prop | Odds | Proj | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | QB | NE | Ps Yd | 177.5 | -128 O, -106 U | 224.9 | Over |
| Mac Jones | QB | NE | Ps TD | 0.5 | -189 O, +136 U | 0.7 | Over |
| Mac Jones | QB | NE | Ps INT | 0.5 | -167 O, +120 U | 1.0 | Over |
| Mac Jones | QB | NE | Ru Yd | 3.5 | -128 O, -106 U | 6.0 | Over |
| Mac Jones | QB | NE | Ps+Ru Yd | 184.5 | -115 O, -115 U | 230.9 | Over |
| Ezekiel Elliott | RB | NE | Ru Yd | 27.5 | -115 O, -119 U | 28.8 | Over |
| Ezekiel Elliott | RB | NE | Ru+Re Yd | 39.5 | -120 O, -114 U | 32.7 | Under |
| Ezekiel Elliott | RB | NE | Ru Att | 7.5 | -111 O, -123 U | 8.1 | Over |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | NE | Ru Yd | 42.5 | -119 O, -115 U | 48.8 | Over |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | NE | Rec | 2.5 | -120 O, -114 U | 3.2 | Over |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | NE | Ru Att | 10.5 | -139 O, +102 U | 12.1 | Over |
| Kendrick Bourne | WR | NE | Re Yd | 39.5 | -128 O, -106 U | 35.0 | Under |
| Kendrick Bourne | WR | NE | Rec | 4.5 | +123 O, -169 U | 3.7 | Under |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR | NE | Rec | 2.5 | -135 O, -101 U | 3.5 | Over |
| Chad Ryland | K | NE | XPM | 1.5 | +120 O, -167 U | 1.1 | Under |
| Chad Ryland | K | NE | K Pts | 4.5 | -118 O, -118 U | 4.9 | Over |
| Josh Allen | QB | BUF | Ru Yd | 25.5 | -114 O, -120 U | 20.3 | Under |
| Josh Allen | QB | BUF | Ps+Ru Yd | 277.5 | -115 O, -115 U | 272.2 | Under |
| Josh Allen | QB | BUF | Ps Att | 32.5 | -104 O, -132 U | 33.4 | Over |
| Josh Allen | QB | BUF | Ps Com | 21.5 | -101 O, -135 U | 22.7 | Over |
| Josh Allen | QB | BUF | Ru Att | 5.5 | -145 O, +106 U | 4.4 | Under |
| James Cook | RB | BUF | Ru Yd | 52.5 | -119 O, -115 U | 49.9 | Under |
| James Cook | RB | BUF | Ru Att | 13.5 | -125 O, -109 U | 13.0 | Under |
| Stefon Diggs | WR | BUF | Rec | 6.5 | -128 O, -106 U | 7.6 | Over |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | BUF | Re Yd | 24.5 | -120 O, -114 U | 19.0 | Under |
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Mac Jones under 0.5 pass TDs (+136): Jones has gone without a single passing score in three straight games and is set to face a Buffalo defense that has surrendered a grand total of four TD passes through six games this season. That’s nothing new from a Bills squad that held opponents without a passing score seven times in 2022. Speaking of last season, Jones had zero TD passes in four out of 13 “full” games in 2022, so a goose egg in the category wouldn’t be a shock. Jones has thrown a total of four touchdowns over three career regular-season starts against Buffalo.
Over/Under: 39 (8th highest)
Win Probability: Bills 91% (Highest)
Washington Commanders -2.5 @ New York Giants
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Money Line: Washington Commanders (-145) ; New York Giants (+122)
Total: 37.5; Opened: NL
FPI favorite: Commanders by 1.2 (53.4% to win outright)
Projected Score: Commanders 19, Giants 18
Top Player Props for Commanders-Giants
| PLAYER | POS | Tm | Category | Prop | Odds | Proj | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | RB | NYG | Ru Yd | 63.5 | -118 O, -118 U | 69.0 | Over |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | NYG | Rec | 3.5 | +114 O, -156 U | 3.7 | Over |
| Graham Gano | K | NYG | FGM | 1.5 | +116 O, -161 U | 1.6 | Over |
| Graham Gano | K | NYG | K Pts | 5.5 | -123 O, -111 U | 6.4 | Over |
| Leonard Williams | DT | NYG | D Sk | 0.3 | +135 O, -175 U | 0.4 | Over |
| Kayvon Thibodeaux | OLB | NYG | D Sk | 0.3 | -120 O, -110 U | 1.1 | Over |
| Dexter Lawrence | NT | NYG | D Sk | 0.3 | +140 O, -179 U | 0.4 | Over |
| Sam Howell | QB | WAS | Ps TD | 1.5 | +104 O, -143 U | 1.3 | Under |
| Sam Howell | QB | WAS | Ru Yd | 15.5 | -114 O, -120 U | 12.0 | Under |
| Brian Robinson | RB | WAS | Ru Yd | 62.5 | -115 O, -119 U | 56.7 | Under |
| Curtis Samuel | WR | WAS | Rec | 3.5 | +112 O, -154 U | 4.3 | Over |
| Jahan Dotson | WR | WAS | Rec | 2.5 | -167 O, +120 U | 2.5 | Over |
| Joey Slye | K | WAS | XPM | 2.5 | +139 O, -192 U | 1.7 | Under |
| Jonathan Allen | DT | WAS | D Sk | 0.3 | +100 O, -130 U | 0.4 | Over |
| Daron Payne | DT | WAS | D Sk | 0.3 | +110 O, -141 U | 0.3 | Over |
| Montez Sweat | DE | WAS | D Sk | 0.8 | -130 O, +100 U | 0.5 | Under |
| Chase Young | DE | WAS | D Sk | 0.8 | -145 O, +114 U | 0.7 | Under |
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Kayvon Thibodeaux over 0.25 sacks (-120): Thibodeaux is already up to 4.0 sacks for the season after registering 4.0 in only 14 games as a rookie. The 2022 first-round pick is playing on 87% of defensive snaps (a huge number for an edge rusher), which has allowed him at least one full sack in five out of six games. Sam Howell, meanwhile, has taken an absurd 34 sacks in six games, including at least 5.0 in four consecutive games.
Over/Under: 36.8 (12th highest)
Win Probability: Commanders 55% (12th highest)
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Money Line: Atlanta Falcons (+118) ; Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-140)
Total: 37; Opened: 36.5
FPI favorite: Buccaneers by 1.4 (54% to win outright)
Projected Score: Buccaneers 22, Falcons 16
Top Player Props for Falcons-Buccaneers
| PLAYER | POS | Tm | Category | Prop | Odds | Proj | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | QB | TB | Ps Yd | 221.5 | +100 O, -137 U | 216.6 | Under |
| Baker Mayfield | QB | TB | Ps TD | 1.5 | +152 O, -213 U | 1.8 | Over |
| Baker Mayfield | QB | TB | Ps+Ru Yd | 234.5 | -115 O, -115 U | 226.1 | Under |
| Baker Mayfield | QB | TB | Ps Att | 33.5 | -108 O, -127 U | 32.2 | Under |
| Baker Mayfield | QB | TB | Ps Com | 20.5 | -139 O, +102 U | 20.5 | Under |
| Rachaad White | RB | TB | Ru Yd | 48.5 | -106 O, -128 U | 49.1 | Over |
| Rachaad White | RB | TB | Re Yd | 19.5 | -114 O, -120 U | 10.5 | Under |
| Rachaad White | RB | TB | Rec | 3.5 | +139 O, -192 U | 2.7 | Under |
| Mike Evans | WR | TB | Any TD | 0.5 | +165 | 0.6 | Over |
| Mike Evans | WR | TB | Rec | 4.5 | -104 O, -132 U | 5.2 | Over |
| Chris Godwin | WR | TB | Re Yd | 60.5 | -118 O, -118 U | 44.8 | Under |
| Chris Godwin | WR | TB | Ru+Re Yd | 60.5 | -119 O, -115 U | 44.8 | Under |
| Chris Godwin | WR | TB | Rec | 5.5 | -111 O, -123 U | 4.9 | Under |
| Cade Otton | TE | TB | Any TD | 0.5 | +350 | 0.3 | Under |
| Chase McLaughlin | K | TB | FGM | 1.5 | +110 O, -152 U | 1.7 | Over |
| Chase McLaughlin | K | TB | XPM | 1.5 | -125 O, -109 U | 2.0 | Over |
| Chase McLaughlin | K | TB | K Pts | 5.5 | -133 O, -103 U | 7.0 | Over |
| Vita Vea | DT | TB | D Sk | 0.3 | +130 O, -167 U | 0.4 | Over |
| Calijah Kancey | DT | TB | D Sk | 0.3 | +220 O, -294 U | 0.2 | Under |
| Lavonte David | OLB | TB | Tkl | 7.5 | -109 O, -125 U | 8.1 | Over |
| Shaquil Barrett | LB | TB | D Sk | 0.3 | +260 O, -357 U | 0.4 | Over |
| Devin White | LB | TB | Tkl | 6.5 | -106 O, -128 U | 7.5 | Over |
| Joe Tryon-Shoyinka | LB | TB | D Sk | 0.3 | +145 O, -189 U | 0.4 | Over |
| Desmond Ridder | QB | ATL | Ps Yd | 211.5 | +102 O, -139 U | 224.9 | Over |
| Desmond Ridder | QB | ATL | Ps TD | 1.5 | +165 O, -233 U | 1.0 | Under |
| Desmond Ridder | QB | ATL | Ps INT | 0.5 | +102 O, -139 U | 0.7 | Over |
| Desmond Ridder | QB | ATL | Ru Yd | 9.5 | -128 O, -106 U | 11.5 | Over |
| Desmond Ridder | QB | ATL | Ps+Ru Yd | 224.5 | -115 O, -115 U | 236.4 | Over |
| Desmond Ridder | QB | ATL | Ps Att | 29.5 | -114 O, -120 U | 33.2 | Over |
| Desmond Ridder | QB | ATL | Ps Com | 19.5 | +102 O, -139 U | 21.4 | Over |
| Tyler Allgeier | RB | ATL | Ru Yd | 36.5 | -128 O, -106 U | 37.5 | Over |
| Bijan Robinson | RB | ATL | Ru Yd | 54.5 | -137 O, +100 U | 51.6 | Under |
| Bijan Robinson | RB | ATL | Rec | 3.5 | -106 O, -128 U | 4.5 | Over |
| Bijan Robinson | RB | ATL | Ru Att | 13.5 | -123 O, -111 U | 13.1 | Under |
| Mack Hollins | WR | ATL | Ru+Re Yd | 16.5 | -109 O, -125 U | 4.6 | Under |
| Mack Hollins | WR | ATL | Rec | 1.5 | +143 O, -200 U | 1.0 | Under |
| Drake London | WR | ATL | Ru+Re Yd | 49.5 | -139 O, +102 U | 55.3 | Over |
| Drake London | WR | ATL | Rec | 3.5 | -164 O, +118 U | 5.1 | Over |
| Kyle Pitts | TE | ATL | Re Yd | 32.5 | -115 O, -119 U | 43.7 | Over |
| Kyle Pitts | TE | ATL | Rec | 3.5 | +133 O, -185 U | 3.6 | Over |
| Younghoe Koo | K | ATL | FGM | 1.5 | -125 O, -109 U | 1.5 | Over |
| Younghoe Koo | K | ATL | XPM | 1.5 | -179 O, +129 U | 1.4 | Under |
| Younghoe Koo | K | ATL | K Pts | 6.5 | -135 O, -101 U | 5.9 | Under |
| David Onyemata | DT | ATL | D Sk | 0.3 | +154 O, -200 U | 0.2 | Under |
| Grady Jarrett | DT | ATL | D Sk | 0.3 | +210 O, -278 U | 0.3 | Over |
| Calais Campbell | DE | ATL | D Sk | 0.3 | +185 O, -244 U | 0.2 | Under |
| Kaden Elliss | ILB | ATL | Tkl | 6.5 | -120 O, -114 U | 7.3 | Over |
| Kaden Elliss | ILB | ATL | D Sk | 0.3 | +310 O, -455 U | 0.1 | Under |
| Bud Dupree | OLB | ATL | D Sk | 0.3 | +165 O, -213 U | 0.4 | Over |
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Devin White over 6.5 tackles (-106): White has played on 98% of Tampa Bay’s defensive snaps this season and is averaging 6.6 tackles per game. The linebacker has reached 7.0 tackles in three out of five games — a mark he hit in 10 out of 17 games last season. White’s projection gets a boost this week against a run-heavy Atlanta offense that has allowed 20.3 off-ball linebacker tackles per game (third most). Eight different linebackers have reached 7.0 tackles against them in six games this season.
Over/Under: 37.3 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Buccaneers 70% (5th highest)
Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens -3
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore
Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Money Line: Detroit Lions (+135) ; Baltimore Ravens (-160)
Total: 43; Opened: 41
FPI favorite: Ravens by 4.4 (62.6% to win outright)
Projected Score: Lions 22, Ravens 21
Top Player Props for Lions-Ravens
| PLAYER | POS | Tm | Category | Prop | Odds | Proj | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | QB | DET | Ps TD | 1.5 | +126 O, -175 U | 1.1 | Under |
| Jared Goff | QB | DET | Any TD | 0.5 | +700 | 0.2 | Under |
| Josh Reynolds | WR | DET | Re Yd | 31.5 | -133 O, -103 U | 24.9 | Under |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET | Rec | 5.5 | -192 O, +139 U | 8.0 | Over |
| Sam LaPorta | TE | DET | Rec | 3.5 | -152 O, +110 U | 5.1 | Over |
| Aidan Hutchinson | DE | DET | D Sk | 0.3 | -115 O, -115 U | 0.8 | Over |
| John Cominsky | DE | DET | D Sk | 0.3 | +160 O, -208 U | 0.2 | Under |
| Tracy Walker | FS | DET | Tkl | 5.5 | -125 O, -109 U | 6.8 | Over |
| Kerby Joseph | FS | DET | Tkl | 5.5 | -101 O, -135 U | 5.7 | Over |
| Alex Anzalone | ILB | DET | Tkl | 8.5 | +102 O, -139 U | 7.6 | Under |
| Jerry Jacobs | CB | DET | Tkl | 3.5 | -118 O, -118 U | 4.9 | Over |
| Lamar Jackson | QB | BLT | Ps Yd | 215.5 | -103 O, -133 U | 221.2 | Over |
| Lamar Jackson | QB | BLT | Ps TD | 1.5 | +143 O, -200 U | 0.9 | Under |
| Lamar Jackson | QB | BLT | Ps INT | 0.5 | +102 O, -139 U | 0.8 | Over |
| Lamar Jackson | QB | BLT | Ru Yd | 55.5 | -139 O, +102 U | 46.5 | Under |
| Lamar Jackson | QB | BLT | Ps+Ru Yd | 275.5 | -115 O, -115 U | 267.7 | Under |
| Gus Edwards | RB | BLT | Ru Yd | 44.5 | -106 O, -128 U | 40.2 | Under |
| Justice Hill | RB | BLT | Ru Yd | 29.5 | -104 O, -132 U | 20.5 | Under |
| Odell Beckham | WR | BLT | Rec | 1.5 | -200 O, +143 U | 2.7 | Over |
| Zay Flowers | WR | BLT | Rec | 4.5 | -135 O, -101 U | 5.8 | Over |
| Nelson Agholor | WR | BLT | Re Yd | 22.5 | -127 O, -108 U | 18.8 | Under |
| Mark Andrews | TE | BLT | Rec | 4.5 | -109 O, -125 U | 5.1 | Over |
| Brandon Stephens | FS | BLT | Tkl | 3.5 | -101 O, -135 U | 5.5 | Over |
| Patrick Queen | ILB | BLT | Tkl | 7.5 | +102 O, -139 U | 8.4 | Over |
| Kyle Van Noy | OLB | BLT | D Sk | 0.3 | +190 O, -250 U | 0.2 | Under |
| Marlon Humphrey | CB | BLT | Tkl | 3.5 | -115 O, -119 U | 4.1 | Over |
| Kyle Hamilton | SS | BLT | Tkl | 3.5 | -127 O, -108 U | 5.5 | Over |
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Lamar Jackson under 1.5 pass TDs (-200): Jackson has fallen short of two passing scores in four out of six games this season. In fact, tracing back to when he took over as Baltimore’s starter in 2019 and excluding games in which he only played on a few snaps, Jackson has been under two TD passes in 38 out of 65 games (58%), which includes seven out of 11 games in 2022. Baltimore has been its usual run-heavy self at the goal line, having scored 64% of its touchdowns on the ground (highest in the NFL), with an expected rate of 52% (fourth highest). Jackson will face an improved Detroit defense that has allowed only three games with two-plus passing scores in six tries this season.
Editor’s Picks
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Kyle Hamilton over 3.5 total tackles (-127): Hamilton has produced at least 4.0 tackles in three out of five full games this season, falling just short with 3.0 in Weeks 1 and 5. Hamilton played on 99% of defensive snaps during those outings and was on his way to another every-down showing in Week 6 prior to being ejected. Hamilton gets plenty of run in the box and he may get a few more tackle opportunities this week with Marcus Williams (hamstring) seemingly doubtful. Detroit is allowing 16.0 safety tackles per game, which is fourth most in the league.
Over/Under: 43 (6th highest)
Win Probability: Lions 52% (13th highest)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Los Angeles Rams -3
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Sunday 4:05 PM ET
Money Line: Pittsburgh Steelers (+143) ; Los Angeles Rams (-170)
Total: 44; Opened: 42.5
FPI favorite: Rams by 3 (58.7% to win outright)
Projected Score: Rams 22, Steelers 17
Top Player Props for Steelers-Rams
| PLAYER | POS | Tm | Category | Prop | Odds | Proj | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | QB | LAR | Ps Yd | 261.5 | -118 O, -118 U | 270.0 | Over |
| Matthew Stafford | QB | LAR | Ps TD | 1.5 | -133 O, -103 U | 1.3 | Under |
| Matthew Stafford | QB | LAR | Ru Yd | 1.5 | -125 O, -109 U | 2.6 | Over |
| Matthew Stafford | QB | LAR | Ps+Ru Yd | 266.5 | -115 O, -115 U | 272.7 | Over |
| Puka Nacua | WR | LAR | Re Yd | 60.5 | -118 O, -118 U | 74.7 | Over |
| Puka Nacua | WR | LAR | Rec | 4.5 | -179 O, +129 U | 6.2 | Over |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | LAR | Rec | 7.5 | +102 O, -139 U | 7.7 | Over |
| Brett Maher | K | LAR | XPM | 2.5 | +126 O, -175 U | 2.1 | Under |
| Brett Maher | K | LAR | K Pts | 6.5 | -125 O, -109 U | 7.3 | Over |
| Najee Harris | RB | PIT | Ru Yd | 51.5 | -115 O, -119 U | 46.0 | Under |
| Chris Boswell | K | PIT | XPM | 1.5 | -185 O, +133 U | 1.5 | Over |
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Puka Nacua over 4.5 receptions (-179) and over 60.5 receiving yards (-118): These are Nacua’s lowest reception and receiving yardage props on the books this season, which isn’t shocking after his career-low 4-catch, 26-yard showing in Week 6. The rookie had gone over in his receiving props in all prior weeks and has at least five receptions and 71 yards in five out of six games this season. Despite the Week 6 dud, Nacua still handled a 33% target share, which aligns exactly with his 33% share for the season. Nacua is a bounceback candidate against a Steelers defense that has allowed the eighth-most WR receptions and second-most WR receiving yards per game this season. Seven different wideouts have hit five receptions and 60 yards against them over five games.
Over/Under: 39.1 (7th highest)
Win Probability: Rams 67% (6th highest)
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks -8
Lumen Field, Seattle
Sunday 4:05 PM ET
Money Line: Arizona Cardinals (+300) ; Seattle Seahawks (-385)
Total: 44.5; Opened: 44.5
FPI favorite: Seahawks by 9.2 (74.9% to win outright)
Projected Score: Seahawks 28, Cardinals 20
Top Player Props for Cardinals-Seahawks
| PLAYER | POS | Tm | Category | Prop | Odds | Proj | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | QB | SEA | Ps TD | 1.5 | -135 O, -101 U | 1.5 | Over |
| Geno Smith | QB | SEA | Ps INT | 0.5 | +159 O, -222 U | 0.7 | Over |
| Geno Smith | QB | SEA | Ru Yd | 13.5 | -119 O, -115 U | 11.9 | Under |
| Geno Smith | QB | SEA | Ps+Ru Yd | 270.5 | -115 O, -115 U | 257.9 | Under |
| Geno Smith | QB | SEA | Ps Att | 31.5 | -123 O, -111 U | 33.0 | Over |
| Kenneth Walker | RB | SEA | Ru Yd | 71.5 | -125 O, -109 U | 79.6 | Over |
| Kenneth Walker | RB | SEA | Re Yd | 13.5 | -120 O, -114 U | 8.2 | Under |
| Kenneth Walker | RB | SEA | Any TD | 0.5 | -154 | 1.3 | Over |
| Kenneth Walker | RB | SEA | Rec | 2.5 | +116 O, -161 U | 2.0 | Under |
| Kenneth Walker | RB | SEA | Ru Att | 16.5 | -143 O, +104 U | 19.1 | Over |
| DK Metcalf | WR | SEA | Rec | 4.5 | -108 O, -127 U | 4.9 | Over |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | SEA | Rec | 3.5 | +110 O, -152 U | 3.1 | Under |
| Noah Fant | TE | SEA | Re Yd | 22.5 | -111 O, -123 U | 10.3 | Under |
| Mario Edwards | DE | SEA | D Sk | 0.3 | +310 O, -455 U | 0.2 | Under |
| Dre’Mont Jones | DE | SEA | D Sk | 0.3 | +200 O, -270 U | 0.3 | Over |
| Quandre Diggs | FS | SEA | Tkl | 3.5 | -169 O, +123 U | 4.5 | Over |
| Bobby Wagner | ILB | SEA | Tkl | 8.5 | -111 O, -123 U | 9.3 | Over |
| Jordyn Brooks | ILB | SEA | Tkl | 7.5 | -123 O, -111 U | 8.5 | Over |
| Uchenna Nwosu | OLB | SEA | D Sk | 0.3 | +135 O, -175 U | 0.4 | Over |
| Tariq Woolen | CB | SEA | Tkl | 3.5 | +116 O, -161 U | 3.8 | Over |
| Jamal Adams | SS | SEA | Tkl | 5.5 | +108 O, -147 U | 5.7 | Over |
| Jarran Reed | NT | SEA | D Sk | 0.3 | +160 O, -208 U | 0.3 | Over |
| Joshua Dobbs | QB | ARZ | Ps Yd | 216.5 | -114 O, -120 U | 212.4 | Under |
| Joshua Dobbs | QB | ARZ | Ps TD | 1.5 | +178 O, -256 U | 1.4 | Under |
| Joshua Dobbs | QB | ARZ | Ru Yd | 21.5 | -119 O, -115 U | 19.4 | Under |
| Joshua Dobbs | QB | ARZ | Ps+Ru Yd | 241.5 | -115 O, -115 U | 231.9 | Under |
| Joshua Dobbs | QB | ARZ | Ps Att | 32.5 | -119 O, -115 U | 34.2 | Over |
| Joshua Dobbs | QB | ARZ | Ps Com | 20.5 | -123 O, -111 U | 21.5 | Over |
| Keaontay Ingram | RB | ARZ | Ru Yd | 36.5 | -101 O, -135 U | 23.9 | Under |
| Keaontay Ingram | RB | ARZ | Ru+Re Yd | 52.5 | -109 O, -125 U | 31.2 | Under |
| Keaontay Ingram | RB | ARZ | Ru Att | 9.5 | -139 O, +102 U | 8.5 | Under |
| Marquise Brown | WR | ARZ | Re Yd | 55.5 | -115 O, -119 U | 66.3 | Over |
| Marquise Brown | WR | ARZ | Any TD | 0.5 | +195 | 0.4 | Under |
| Marquise Brown | WR | ARZ | Rec | 4.5 | -120 O, -114 U | 5.3 | Over |
| Michael Wilson | WR | ARZ | Re Yd | 28.5 | -120 O, -114 U | 21.3 | Under |
| Zach Ertz | TE | ARZ | Any TD | 0.5 | +400 | 0.3 | Under |
| Jonathan Ledbetter | DE | ARZ | D Sk | 0.3 | +240 O, -333 U | 0.2 | Under |
| Josh Woods | ILB | ARZ | Tkl | 4.5 | -101 O, -135 U | 6.4 | Over |
| Zaven Collins | OLB | ARZ | Tkl | 3.5 | +106 O, -145 U | 2.8 | Under |
| Zaven Collins | OLB | ARZ | D Sk | 0.3 | +195 O, -263 U | 0.3 | Over |
| Marco Wilson | CB | ARZ | Tkl | 4.5 | -114 O, -120 U | 5.0 | Over |
| Kevin Strong | NT | ARZ | D Sk | 0.3 | +260 O, -357 U | 0.2 | Under |
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Kenneth Walker III anytime TD (-154): The gift that keeps on giving, Walker has now scored in four consecutive games. Despite already serving his bye, Walker leads the NFL in expected TDs (6.4) as well as in carries inside the opponent’s 5-yard line (10). Walker’s six scores rank fifth among running backs. This is a terrific matchup against an Arizona defense that has allowed nine RB touchdowns this season (third most), including at least one in five out of six games. This bet will be even more valuable if running-mate Zach Charbonnet (hamstring) is sidelined.
Over/Under: 47.8 (3rd highest)
Win Probability: Seahawks 75% (3rd highest)
Green Bay Packers -1 @ Denver Broncos
Empower Field at Mile High, Denver
Sunday 4:25 PM ET
Money Line: Green Bay Packers (-120) ; Denver Broncos (+100)
Total: 45; Opened: 44.5
FPI favorite: Packers by 2.5 (57.4% to win outright)
Projected Score: Packers 25, Broncos 20
Top Player Props for Packers-Broncos
| PLAYER | POS | Tm | Category | Prop | Odds | Proj | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | QB | DEN | Ps Yd | 215.5 | -106 O, -128 U | 207.6 | Under |
| Russell Wilson | QB | DEN | Ps TD | 1.5 | +139 O, -192 U | 1.7 | Over |
| Russell Wilson | QB | DEN | Ps+Ru Yd | 240.5 | -115 O, -115 U | 226.1 | Under |
| Russell Wilson | QB | DEN | Ps Att | 29.5 | -114 O, -120 U | 30.8 | Over |
| Javonte Williams | RB | DEN | Ru Yd | 48.5 | -101 O, -135 U | 41.1 | Under |
| Javonte Williams | RB | DEN | Re Yd | 10.5 | -119 O, -115 U | 5.6 | Under |
| Javonte Williams | RB | DEN | Ru+Re Yd | 62.5 | -115 O, -119 U | 46.8 | Under |
| Courtland Sutton | WR | DEN | Any TD | 0.5 | +190 | 0.5 | Under |
| Jerry Jeudy | WR | DEN | Rec | 3.5 | -145 O, +106 U | 3.6 | Over |
| Wil Lutz | K | DEN | XPM | 1.5 | -213 O, +152 U | 1.9 | Over |
| Zach Allen | DE | DEN | D Sk | 0.3 | +100 O, -135 U | 0.3 | Over |
| Justin Simmons | FS | DEN | Tkl | 4.5 | -123 O, -111 U | 5.3 | Over |
| Josey Jewell | ILB | DEN | Tkl | 7.5 | -139 O, +102 U | 6.9 | Under |
| Alex Singleton | ILB | DEN | Tkl | 8.5 | -147 O, +108 U | 9.8 | Over |
| Patrick Surtain | CB | DEN | Tkl | 3.5 | +108 O, -147 U | 3.9 | Over |
| Damarri Mathis | CB | DEN | Tkl | 4.5 | -106 O, -128 U | 4.8 | Over |
| Jordan Love | QB | GB | Ps TD | 1.5 | +106 O, -145 U | 1.8 | Over |
| Jordan Love | QB | GB | Ps+Ru Yd | 254.5 | -115 O, -115 U | 261.3 | Over |
| Jordan Love | QB | GB | Ps Com | 20.5 | -114 O, -120 U | 19.4 | Under |
| Aaron Jones | RB | GB | Ru Yd | 50.5 | -115 O, -119 U | 55.3 | Over |
| A.J. Dillon | RB | GB | Ru Yd | 39.5 | -115 O, -119 U | 41.4 | Over |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | GB | Rec | 3.5 | -106 O, -128 U | 3.3 | Under |
| Christian Watson | WR | GB | Rec | 3.5 | -161 O, +116 U | 3.5 | Over |
| Jayden Reed | WR | GB | Any TD | 0.5 | +290 | 0.3 | Under |
| Luke Musgrave | TE | GB | Rec | 3.5 | -104 O, -132 U | 3.1 | Under |
| Anders Carlson | K | GB | FGM | 1.5 | +106 O, -145 U | 1.7 | Over |
| Anders Carlson | K | GB | XPM | 2.5 | +139 O, -192 U | 2.4 | Under |
| Anders Carlson | K | GB | K Pts | 6.5 | -106 O, -128 U | 7.5 | Over |
| Kenny Clark | DE | GB | D Sk | 0.3 | +120 O, -149 U | 0.4 | Over |
| Rudy Ford | FS | GB | Tkl | 5.5 | -106 O, -128 U | 6.0 | Over |
| Quay Walker | ILB | GB | Tkl | 9.5 | -137 O, +100 U | 8.9 | Under |
| Preston Smith | OLB | GB | D Sk | 0.3 | +130 O, -167 U | 0.4 | Over |
| Rashan Gary | OLB | GB | D Sk | 0.3 | -120 O, -110 U | 0.5 | Over |
| Jaire Alexander | CB | GB | Tkl | 3.5 | +114 O, -156 U | 3.7 | Over |
| Rasul Douglas | CB | GB | Tkl | 3.5 | -109 O, -125 U | 4.3 | Over |
| Darnell Savage | SS | GB | Tkl | 5.5 | +112 O, -154 U | 5.0 | Under |
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Jordan Love over 1.5 pass TDs (+106): Since throwing three TD passes in his first two games of the season, Love has totaled just two over his last three outings (although he did run for two scores during this span). This one is really about the matchup, of course, as Love is facing a Denver defense that has surrendered a league-high 14 TD passes this season, including at least two in four out of six games. This one has value down to -111.
Over/Under: 44.9 (5th highest)
Win Probability: Packers 65% (9th highest)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs -5.5
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
Sunday 4:25 PM ET
Money Line: Los Angeles Chargers (+196) ; Kansas City Chiefs (-240)
Total: 48; Opened: 47.5
FPI favorite: Chiefs by 5.5 (65.6% to win outright)
Projected Score: Chiefs 30, Chargers 23
Top Player Props for Chargers-Chiefs
| PLAYER | POS | Tm | Category | Prop | Odds | Proj | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | Ps Yd | 277.5 | -133 O, -103 U | 289.3 | Over |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | Ps TD | 2.5 | +152 O, -213 U | 2.4 | Under |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | Ps INT | 0.5 | +104 O, -143 U | 0.8 | Over |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | Ru Yd | 25.5 | -115 O, -119 U | 21.9 | Under |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | Ps+Ru Yd | 307.5 | -115 O, -115 U | 311.2 | Over |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | Ps Att | 37.5 | -104 O, -132 U | 38.2 | Over |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | Ru Att | 4.5 | +120 O, -167 U | 4.5 | Under |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | KC | Ru Yd | 62.5 | -115 O, -119 U | 60.0 | Under |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | KC | Any TD | 0.5 | +102 | 0.8 | Over |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | KC | Ru Att | 14.5 | -115 O, -119 U | 15.1 | Over |
| Rashee Rice | WR | KC | Re Yd | 36.5 | -137 O, +100 U | 37.2 | Over |
| Rashee Rice | WR | KC | Ru+Re Yd | 37.5 | -139 O, +102 U | 37.2 | Under |
| Skyy Moore | WR | KC | Rec | 2.5 | +108 O, -147 U | 2.3 | Under |
| Harrison Butker | K | KC | XPM | 2.5 | -145 O, +106 U | 3.2 | Over |
| George Karlaftis | DE | KC | D Sk | 0.3 | +145 O, -189 U | 0.4 | Over |
| Michael Danna | DE | KC | D Sk | 0.3 | +180 O, -238 U | 0.3 | Over |
| Nick Bolton | ILB | KC | Tkl | 8.5 | +104 O, -143 U | 8.8 | Over |
| Willie Gay | OLB | KC | Tkl | 4.5 | -123 O, -111 U | 5.1 | Over |
| L’Jarius Sneed | CB | KC | Tkl | 4.5 | -118 O, -118 U | 5.8 | Over |
| Justin Herbert | QB | LAC | Ps Yd | 267.5 | -115 O, -119 U | 279.8 | Over |
| Justin Herbert | QB | LAC | Ps TD | 1.5 | -133 O, -103 U | 1.6 | Over |
