The NFL is back! The NFL is back! The NFL is back!

Last night’s season opener was just a fantastic appetizer for betting on NFL odds, but we definitely needed to save some room (and bankroll) for the full buffet of NFL player props for coming this weekend.

Every week I’ll be giving out six free NFL picks — three on Fridays and three on Saturdays — trying to find the best NFL betting values to target during the Sunday slate of games.

I’ll kick things off by looking at the Swagg-iest running back around having a tough time, Herbie seeing the pros (and cons) of an aggressive attack, and a Browns receiver shining in his Dawg Pound debut.

Without further ado, here are my best Nfl Prop Picks for Week 1.

Latest NFL prop picks

• Williams Under 55.5 rush yards
• Herbert Over 0.5 interceptions
• Elijah Moore Over 30.5 rec yards

Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.

NFL prop picks for Friday

Swagg slowed down

After posting his first 1,000-Yard season last year, Jamaal Williams left Detroit to join the New Orleans Saints, where he is expected to start the season as the lead running back — at least while Alvin Kamara is suspended and rookie Kendre Miller is questionable while dealing with a hamstring injury.

Jamaal Williams’ odds currently sit as high as 55.5 rushing yards, and while he’ll be the RB1 this Sunday, I’m going Under on his total vs. an elite Tennessee Titans rush defense. The Titans were No. 1 in the NFL in run block win rate and rushing yards against last season (just 67 yards per game Weeks 2-17), despite being first in the league in man games lost — by a large margin — including not having Pro Bowl LB Harold Landry for the entire year.

The Titans are healthy again, and Williams wasn’t exactly a dominant runner last year: Despite finishing seventh in the NFL in carries in 2022, Williams was just 42nd in yards after contact per attempt, 51st in breakaway percentage (behind noted speedster Zeke Elliott), and 60th in elusive rating (among all RB with 50+ carries, per Pro Football Focus).

Williams’ Week 1 rushing total is actually higher than his total for four of his final five games last season — three of which he still went Under — and for the season he only faced three Top-10 rush defenses. A new quarterback and new offense could also take some time to gel, and if New Orleans falls behind, running could become less of an option.

I think 56+ rush yards (even 50+ yards) will be a challenge against the league’s premier run-stopping unit… plus, if Miller does suit up on Sunday, that’s even fewer carries for the “1st Swagg Kazekage,” whose only chance to go Over requires a good volume of carries.

Prop: Jamaal Williams Under 55.5 rushing yards (-125 at PointsBet)

Herbie gon’ huck it

The Los Angeles Chargers have given the reigns to the offense to Kellen Moore, who has gone on record to say he wants this offense to be more aggressive and push the ball downfield more.

You know what that means to me? Getting Justin Herbert odds for an interception at plus money is too good for me to turn down.

First, any time you hear that an offense wants to get more aggressive, that usually means more risk, which should translate to more interceptions for a QB. Herbert was middle of the pack in INTs last year, under Joe Lombardi’s highly conservative scheme, so forcing more balls downfield should only help us.

Second, it’s not like Herbie has a ton of support to take the pressure off him: The Bolts were one of the weaker rushing attacks in the league last season and the offensive line finished 23rd in pass block win rate and gave up the second-most QB hits in the league last year… and didn’t really improve. Not having a lot of time in the pocket will force Herbert into rushed decisions, which (you guessed it) ups the odds of a pick happening.

Finally, the third (and perhaps most compelling) reason to like Herbert to throw an interception is that the Miami Dolphins defense is going to be very, very good. Defensive sage Vic Fangio is now running the Fins’ defense, and his philosophy will see his team play a lot more zone, relying more on pressure from the defensive line — which PFF has ranked as the fourth-best in the league, headlined by edge defender Jaelan Phillips and interior menace Christian Wilkins.

The Dolphins secondary was also crushed by injuries last year and torched by a number of deep balls and blown coverages, a byproduct of having the league’s third-highest blitz rate. More zone means more guys in coverage, and even with offseason acquisition Jalen Ramsey hurt, Xavien Howard and Brandon Jones are healthy while Jevon Holland is an emerging star at safety. 

Fangio is also familiar with Herbert from his time in Denver, with the Broncos picking him off four times in four career matchups. With the talent on the Dolphins’ defense as well as the 180 on the scheme (from both sides), Herbert will likely be under constant pressure.

Prop: Justin Herbert Over 0.5 interceptions (+135 at BetMGM)

Moore powerrrrr

There are some concerns around the Cleveland Browns regarding how good Deshaun Watson will be, but there’s no doubt that he will need to throw the ball this Sunday in a divisional showdown with Joe Burrow and the high-octane Cincinnati Bengals offense.

Most of the attention for the Brownies’ pass-catchers goes to Amari Cooper or David Njoku, but I’m eyeing up newcomer Elijah Moore’s odds, as his receiving yards total is just 30.5 yards.

Now, full disclosure: This line was first posted Thursday afternoon at a criminally low 24.5 yards — and I was all over it, ready to share with the world. Then by the time TNF kicked off… bammo it’s at 30.5, where it still sits at the time of writing. But fear not: It’s still a number I’m happily playing.

Through the first 14 weeks of 2022, he saw at least 60% of the offensive snaps in seven of those games, averaging 37.6 receiving yards in those games and hitting at least 49 yards five times, and also topping that number in his last six games as a rookie in 2021 (76.5 per game average).

Inconsistent playing time — and frustration with his usage — was his downfall in New York, but all signs point to a happy marriage in Cleveland: Reports throughout the preseason said he immediately developed great chemistry with Watson, while Zac Jackson of The Athletic noted that Moore has now become the team’s biggest deep threat, and to “expect both Moore and Njoku to get a bunch of quick, safe targets the team hopes can turn into occasional big catch-and-run plays.”

It’s expected that head coach Kevin Stefanski will line up Moore all over the field (and even in the backfield), using his elite speed and athleticism to create mismatches and get the ball in his hands.

Looking at the Browns’ other receivers, Cooper (who will likely be shadowed by Chidobe Awuzie) is at 58.5 yards, Njoku and Donovan Peoples-Jones (the incumbent No. 2 WR) are at 35.5. Moore has proven that when given consistent snaps and opportunities, he can easily top those numbers — and he’s done it with the likes of Zach Wilson and Mike White… neither of which are the quality of Watson.

Industry projections have Moore anywhere from 37 to 42 yards, a consensus that shows his total is still too low, even after Thursday’s move. I’m also in on Moore’s Over 2.5 receptions for the game (priced as low as -110), as we likely will not see totals this low for him again all season. 

Prop: Elijah Moore Over 30.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)

NFL Week 1 prop betting card

• Jamaal Williams Under 55.5 rush yards (-125)
• Justin Herbert Over 0.5 interceptions (+135)
• Elijah Moore Over 30.5 receiving yards (-110)

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