Vast, frozen and remote, the high Arctic has long been a neutral region, belonging to everyone and no one. But a post-Cold War era characterized by de-militarization and scientific cooperation among the countries that border it is being tested by both global warming and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Melting sea ice is opening trade routes and creating new possibilities for resource exploration, prompting expanded claims for seabed rights by some states. At the same time, Russia’s war is fomenting military tensions and thwarting normal cooperation within the eight-nation Arctic Council, a forum for tackling common issues. Meanwhile, the need has never been greater for responsible stewardship of a region that serves as a planetary defense against climate change.
1. What are the military tensions?
• Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine prompted Finland to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which Russian President Vladimir Putin regards as a threat to his country. Sweden has also applied for NATO membership, and if it’s approved, as expected, Russia would become the only Arctic power not in the alliance.
• Both Russian and NATO troops regularly conduct drills in the Arctic. In 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed to protect Arctic waters by all means. His country houses some of its most important strategic assets in the Arctic. Roughly two-thirds of its nuclear-powered vessels — including submarines carrying nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles — are assigned to its Northern Fleet in the Kola Peninsula. Given the heightened tensions, NATO allies are concerned about the potential for Russian vessels to gain access to the Atlantic Ocean through the so-called Greenland-Iceland-UK gap (GIUK). Once through, they could sabotage underwater transatlantic data cables, cut off military supply lines from the US, and disrupt commercial shipping.
• Canada’s discovery of Chinese monitoring buoys in the Northwest Passage, a water route through Canadian islands that connects the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, heightened concerns about polar surveillance from China, whose interest in the Arctic has been on the rise. Canada considers the passage part of its internal territorial waters; other maritime nations, including the US, consider it an international strait.
2. What’s been the war’s effect on the Arctic Council?
In the immediate aftermath of the Ukraine invasion, meetings of the Arctic Council were suspended. Created in 1996, its membership includes all the nations bordering the Arctic: the US, Canada, Iceland, Denmark (on behalf of Greenland), Norway, Sweden, Finland and Russia. Six Indigenous groups are represented as well. Over the years, 13 non-Arctic states, including China, have been added as observers. Although progress toward resuming some of the council’s work has been made, the long-term efficacy of the body — which operates by consensus — remains unclear. There is no legal mechanism to force Russia off the council. Were it to quit, the path forward would be more straightforward. But the Arctic Council would be a much-diminished body without the world’s largest Arctic nation.
3. Why is the Arctic Council important?
Individual countries manage their own Arctic jurisdictions, and the council has no enforcement powers and doesn’t discuss military matters. Still, it has provided a neutral forum to collaborate on issues in the shared global Arctic. Its working groups discuss common challenges such as Indigenous rights and sustainable economic development. Legally binding agreements to cooperate in emergencies — for example, major oil spills or search and rescue operations — have been negotiated at the council. And the working groups manage a huge quantity of research in the region. After Norway assumed the rotating chairmanship from Russia in May 2023, work resumed on roughly half the 130 scientific projects that had been put on hold because of the war, with research involving Russian scientists remaining stalled.
4. What role is global warming playing?
Loss of sea ice opens sea routes for longer periods, increasing marine traffic and the potential for economic development in the Arctic, in particular oil, gas and mineral exploration. Environmentally responsible growth is seen as a boon by some Arctic communities, many of which are Indigenous, but poses further climate risks. Cleaning up oil spills in remote polar waters could be incredibly difficult, and extracting and burning fossil fuel deposits in the region would also contribute to global warming.
5. How resource-rich is the high Arctic?
Nobody knows. The Arctic seabed is still largely unexplored but thought to contain significant stores of fossil fuels, metals and minerals — including critical minerals needed to help the world transition to clean electric power. The most recent circum-Arctic study regarding fossil fuels, by the US Geological Survey, dates to 2008. It estimated that there are about 90 billion barrels of undiscovered oil and 1,670 trillion cubic feet of undiscovered natural gas inside the Arctic Circle. In the lower portion of the Arctic Circle, Russia has been extracting offshore oil for a decade and aims to increase production through 2035, though sanctions have disrupted its most ambitious plans. Norway’s biggest oil and gas companies are ramping up exploration plans in Arctic waters but are facing legal challenges. Greenland scrapped exploration plans in 2021, saying the climate consequences were too great. Trade routes across the top of the planet are their own type of resource. Russia is shipping increasing amounts of oil and other cargo through the Northeast Passage, which runs mainly along Siberia’s northern coast, and tourism is on the rise in the Northwest Passage.
6. Which Arctic shipping routes offer the most potential?
Prior to the Ukraine invasion, traffic through the Northern Sea Route — part of the Northeast Passage — had been steadily increasing, to Russia’s benefit. In summer, the route tends to have less ice than the competing Northwest Passage and, with help from Russia’s superior fleet of ice-breakers, even winter transit is a possibility. However, US-led sanctions against Russia and the potential for further geopolitical tensions could make the Northwest Passage more appealing. It’s still considered more treacherous, but as climate change melts summer sea ice, the route over the top of Canada is becoming more viable. There’s also a third, for now hypothetical sea route, should the North Pole ever become entirely ice-free for at least part of the year, as now seems likely before mid-century. The potential Trans Arctic shipping route would allow ships to travel over the top of the planet through international waters. The route is a component of China’s so-called Polar Silk Road plan, part of its strategy to expand the country’s trade links by supporting infrastructure projects around the world.
7. What countries are seeking expanded rights in the Arctic?
Russia, Canada and Denmark — on behalf of Greenland — are arguing for more expansive economic rights to a huge swath of the Arctic seabed. All three claim that the Lomonosov Ridge — an underwater ridge traversing the North Pole, is an extension of their continental shelf. Under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, that would allow them to claim exclusive sovereign rights to any natural resources on or below the sea floor beyond the usual 200 nautical mile (230 mile) limit of their exclusive economic zones. In 2001, Russia became the first country to push for new boundaries. The latest versions of all three countries’ claims have a common denominator: a patch of frozen sea over the North Pole estimated to be about 283,000 square miles, roughly the size of Chile. The US, meanwhile, has been gathering its own data suggesting it could make claims in the future. In February 2023, the Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS) determined that a significant portion of Russia’s submission is supported by geology. Still, it could take decades to figure out how much of its shelf is shared with the other countries. If there is overlap — as is likely — countries may end up having to negotiate boundaries among themselves, or through a third-party tribunal.
8. How is the Arctic a defense against climate change?
The Arctic acts as both a planetary shield and a carbon sink. Its ice deflects the sun’s heat even as its permafrost, or frozen soil, and its boreal forests sequester vast amounts of greenhouse gases that would otherwise warm the planet. Even so, the Arctic is warming at about four times the global average rate, and that pace is accelerating due to several feedback loops. A warmer Arctic quickens permafrost melt, which releases more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, hastening warming. Ice-free Arctic summers now appear inevitable by mid-century, and shrinking ice coverage also speeds up warming. Plus boreal forest wildfires — more common as the planet warms — release still more carbon, continuing the cycle. As the difference in temperature between the Arctic and lower latitudes narrows, jet streams — bands of strong westerly winds driven by the collision of cold polar and hot tropical air — become slower and wavier. The result is unusually hot and cold weather systems, leading to floods in some places and wildfires in others. What’s more, a melting Greenland ice sheet is expected to raise sea levels, exacerbating flooding.
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