Mar 1, 2023; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Baltimore Ravens coach John Harbaugh speaks to the press at the NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
- There are definite NFL preseason betting trends to follow during the NFL Preseason and they often differ from the usual flow of wagering analytics
- The Baltimore Ravens are kings of the NFL Preseason, with a current run of 23 straight victories
- Four of last season’s playoff teams went winless during preseason play
On the surface, betting on the NFL Preseason might not seem like money well spent. The games don’t count in the standings, after all.
However, wagering on Nfl Preseason games is no different than betting on the regular season. There are clear NFL preseason betting trends at work and teams that are better bets than other squads. If you do your homework, carefully study the NFL Preseason Week 1 lines, and follow the analytics just like you would in prepping for the real games, there’s money to be made betting on NFL Preseason action.
NFL Preseason Trends
Deep analysis of the 2022 NFL Preseason outcomes tends to show that many regular-season trends don’t hold up during exhibition play. For instance, home-team dominance has been trending downward in recent NFL seasons.
Research conducted by BetMGM is showing that over the past five seasons, just eight NFL teams are displaying a winning against the spread record as a home team. That means a whopping 75% of teams in the league are at .500 or worse as the home chalk over that span.
By contrast, during the 2022 NFL Preseason, home teams were 27-14-4 ATS (two games went off as pick’em and one was a neutral site game). That’s a .644 winning percentage. Straight up, the home-team advantage was also strong. Home teams went 30-18, a win rate of .625.
Betting NFL Preseason…pic.twitter.com/nttj1SCnBc
— Nikara6 (@Nikara6Bets) August 3, 2023
Last season, underdogs were ruling the NFL regular season. In a campaign gone to the dogs, the longer shot on the board went an impressive 151-124-9 ATS. That’s a 54.9% win ratio for the underdogs. However, this trend didn’t hold water during preseason action. Straight up, favorites were 31-15-1 (.670) during the 2022 preseason. Against the spread, the chalk was 24-18-5 (.564).
Last season, just four NFL teams managed to go over more than under during regular-season play. The 2022 NFL Preseason was displaying a tight total race, with the over winning 25-22-1. Here’s a usual trend to remember heading into Week 1, though. You know that old theory about defenses being ahead of the offenses early in the preseason? Not true. Last season, during the opening round of preseason action, the over held a significant 14-3 edge.
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Ravens Rule NFL Preseason
Certainly, the approach that NFL teams take to the preseason varies from club to club. The undisputed kings of preseason play are the Baltimore Ravens. They’ve won 23 games in a row. The last time Baltimore dropped a preseason game was a 20-19 setback at the hands of the Atlanta Falcons on September 3, 2015.
The Ravens are 6-point home favorites over the Philadelphia Eagles on Saturday, August 12. You can see all of the NFL odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. Access this BetMGM promo code to bet on the NFL Week 1 preseason action here.
Ravens head coach John Harbaugh is a believer that the development of a winning culture begins from Day 1 of training camp, so he plays to win in the preseason. Other coaches do not share in this philosophy.
Lets respect one of the All-Time winning streaks in the history of gambling #NFLPreseason
Baltimore Ravens 23 STRAIGHT preseason wins
2022: 3-0
2021: 3-0
2020: #Covid
2019: 4-0
2018: 5-0
2017: 4-0
2016: 4-0Degenerates take notes 20-3 ATS in those games. pic.twitter.com/7367dhtION
— IB THE GAMBLER (@incarceratedbob) August 3, 2023
The leader in the opposing camp is Sean McVay of the Los Angeles Rams. Traditionally, McVay doesn’t like to play his starters at all in preseason games. Three of his stars – quarterback Matthew Stafford, wide receiver Cooper Kupp and defensive tackle Aaron Donald – didn’t see a single snap of playing time last year.
Coming off a 5-12 campaign, however, this year McVay may be taking a different approach. Readying for their Week 1 game against city rivals the Los Angeles Chargers, McVay is allowing that most Rams starters will be seeing at least limited game time during exhibition play.
Bad Teams Are Good Preseason Bets
George Costanza would love betting on the NFL Preseason, because so often it is Opposite Day. Bad is frequently good, and good is often bad.
Last season, four NFL playoff teams – the Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4), Minnesota Vikings (0-3), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3) and the Seattle Seahawks (0-3) – endured winless preseasons. By contrast, the two worst teams in the NFL – the Houston Texans (3-0) and Chicago Bears (3-0) – enjoyed perfection during their exhibition slates.
Weaker teams tend to be less certain about their direction, so they’ll give their regulars more playing time during the preseason.
The ultimate statement regarding this trend was made by the 2008 Detroit Lions and reemphasized by the 2017 Cleveland Browns. The only teams in NFL history to endure 0-16 regular seasons, both clubs went 4-0 in preseason play leading into those seasons.
At the other end of the spectrum, the league’s two unbeaten teams – the 1972 Miami Dolphins (14-0) and 2007 New England Patriots (16-0) – were mediocre preseason performers. Miami went 3-3, while the Patriots were 2-2.
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Robert Duff
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
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