060 – Market and central banks at odds

Fed raised by 50bps. Much less aggressive, however larger TR upped to five.1 (4.6). Fed chair was Hawkish.

ECB much more hawkish than Fed. 50bps ongoing and QT introduced. Hawkish ECB is a extra convincing case — extra floor to cowl, however harder to ship due to the fractious nature of the financial institution.

BoE delivered 50 bps and was the least hawkish of the three. There was a three-way cut up: 0, 50bps, 75bps.

There’s a disconnect between the banks and the Market. Market’s count on cuts in H2 2023. Fed dismisses this.

Information is complicated and ambiguous. Companies PMI beat to the upside, however industrial manufacturing and retail gross sales have been each down (weak). CPI additionally confirmed indicators of moderating.

This week:

BoJ — some studies suggesting an announcement concerning the two% inflation goal. CPI out as nicely (Fri).

CPI Canada – Wed.

US PCE knowledge on Friday. Might take lead from CPI and average.

Last GDP on Thurs q/q 2.9% (US), -0.2% (UK).