Avatar 3 – After 13 years, the sequel to the 2009 blockbuster “Avatar” is finally hitting theaters. Moreover, those who have longed to see what Jake (Sam Worthington), Neytiri (Zoe Saldana), and the rest of the blue people have been up to in Pandora’s verdant surroundings may rest confident that the adventures will continue. James Cameron has ideas for many more Na’vi shocks in ” Avatar 3,” which is currently a probable certainty.

This is why “Avatar: The Way of Water” is not as significant as one might think from a major end-of-year blockbuster directed by James Cameron.

Regardless of how “The Way of Water” performs, the immediate future of the series is already relatively obvious, as a third film is in the works. Therefore, the “Avatar” film to which you should pay the most attention is the third.

Virtually every aspect of the “Avatar” franchise, including movies, theme park attractions, and other entertainment properties, will hinge on the third film, which will lack “The Way of Water’s” decade-plus-long intrigue factor. Here is the significance of “Avatar 3” to the franchise.

Avatar: The Way of Water is What the Cameron Does Best, but Avatar 3 is Uncharted Territory for That

Why wouldn’t early Twitter chatter on “Avatar: The Way of Water” be mostly positive? James Cameron’s history as a genre sequel writer-director is unparalleled, thanks to “Terminator 2: Judgment Day” and “Aliens.” Although Cameron himself admits that “Avatar: The Way of Water” is a terrible business case that will need to become one of the most successful films ever to break even, it’s hard to bet against his resume.

However, “Avatar 3” is where things will become difficult. Cameron is a wonderful director, but he’s also very irregular. In fact, “The Way of Water” is his twenty-first directing credit in 44 years, including TV episodes, documentaries, and short films.

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While he has been a near-consistent success as a filmmaker, he is an unknown captain to sail a franchise beyond the waters of the first sequel. Yes, he produced “Terminator: Dark Fate,” so he has in the past revisited franchises after their second film.

However, he has never truly committed to a film series after the first sequel — not in the role of writer-director-producer-editor he plays in the “Avatar” films.

In other words, Cameron’s intention is to explore unfamiliar waters. In his body of work, he has laid out plans for several high-budget sequels situated in the same universe, which is completely unexplored terrain.

He definitely has his motives to do this – more on that in a moment. However, we won’t know until “Avatar 3” if he can actually work in such a rapid-fire, deep-dive capacity while maintaining a stable profit margin.

If Cameron is Playing the Legacy Game, Avatar 3 is the Most Critical Part of His Project

The most important aspect of “Avatar 3” is not necessarily the film itself, but its success in establishing future “Avatar” films. The third “Avatar” film is the first to demonstrate whether James Cameron’s apparent ambition to establish himself as the ultimate franchise creator is successful.

Cameron could have retired to a tropical island after virtually any of his several blockbuster films. The fact that he has consistently advanced, embraced new technology, and concentrated on creating even more stunning films is evidence of his desire to surpass himself.

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Since producing sci-fi sequels are his bread and butter, “The Way of Water” is merely a dazzling step in his “Avatar” masterplan; nonetheless, the entire scheme won’t really take flight until “Avatar 3” takes flight. Cameron possesses the skills necessary to produce numerous epic science fiction works, and he has had ample time to compose the stories he wishes to tell in this universe.

But are there enough enticing stories to share on Pandora? Or has Cameron gotten so smitten with his aesthetic world that he cannot see that his multi-movie story arc lacks substance? Only “Avatar 3” will reveal the answer.

Cameron’s tenacity over the “Avatar” films demonstrates that he considers them to be his boldest and most audacious filmmaking move to date. He is currently constructing a whole mega-franchise from the ground up, as opposed to making individual fantastic films and sequels.

Exceptionally few greats can say the same… which may or may not be the exact reason why Cameron is so dedicated to the cause. What greater legacy could there be than creating a beloved universe from scratch?

Avatar 3 is a Durability Test for the Entire Franchise

Cameron’s major science-fiction franchises have never reached their apex after the first two films. This generates high expectations for “Avatar 3,” which is the first “Avatar” film to thrust Cameron beyond the “successful movie and its sequel” structure and into the serial movie franchise zone he appears eager to explore.

George Lucas is possibly the best point of comparison to what Cameron appears to be attempting to do, whether in a positive or negative light. Cameron may very well transform “Avatar” into a multimedia behemoth on par with “Star Wars,” “Star Trek,” and the Marvel Cinematic Universe if he manages to expand his universe in the manner in which George Lucas created the galaxy far, far away in the first “Star Wars” trilogy. If this occurs, expect to see movies and television shows centered on Pandora well after Cameron’s passing. However, if the director adopts the style-over-substance approach of George Lucas’ prequel trilogy, his costly experiment could become a colossal, embarrassing failure.

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It is indeed quite stunning. Especially at this relatively late stage in his career, it’s not often that we witness an experienced superstar director taking risks as James Cameron did in the “Avatar” films. “Avatar 3” is the most crucial curveball he must hit in order to hit that record-breaking home run.

Avatar 3 Will Show Whether the Franchise is Financially Sustainable

And then there’s the inevitable financial aspect. James Cameron is prepared to end the Pandora franchise after “Avatar 3″ if the films do not generate a substantial profit.

This financial aspect raises the significance of the third “Avatar” film in the larger scheme of things. In the worst-case scenario, “Avatar 3” will not only be accountable for its own box office performance, but it will also be Pandora’s last line of defense if “Way of the Water” fails to perform well.

“Avatar 3” has a lot to make up for if “The Way of Water” is unsuccessful. Variety estimates that “The Way of Water’s” breakeven point is in the vicinity of $2 billion.

Comparatively, the second major long-awaited sequel of 2022, the hugely successful “Top Gun: Maverick,” has grossed “just” $1.48 billion to date (per Box Office Mojo). If “The Way of Water” reaches this level of success, and assuming “Avatar 3” likewise has a $2 billion profit margin, “Avatar 3” would need to gross over $2.5 billion to break even and make up for “The Way of Water’s” loss. This would require “Avatar 3” to become the third highest-grossing film in history.

This hypothetical situation may seem ambitious, but it is not impossible to achieve – at least if your name is James Cameron. The film “Avatar 3″ would need to exceed “Titanic,” which is now at €2.2 billion, to take the number three place (via Box Office Mojo).

Oh, and at the top of the list is the original “Avatar,” which has grossed $2.92 billion throughout the years (according to Box Office Mojo), with the September 2022 rerelease alone earning a $30-million opening weekend (via Variety).

Cameron is therefore the only one who can make these crazy figures work. Still, there’s a good chance that even he’ll be sweating for quite some time, given that “Avatar” has been the embodiment of “slow and steady,” grossing a relatively modest $77 million over its opening weekend and steadily increasing. 

Therefore, even if successful, “The Way of Water” and “Avatar 3” may require considerable time to earn their billions. Will the studio become weary of this high-stakes gamble with excruciatingly slow returns, or will “Avatar 3” need an instant, huge box office effect to reassure all parties? There is one more reason to keep an eye on what could be the most significant film of Cameron’s career.

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