Washington – Moscow is suspending the nuclear arms treaty. The possibility of China arming the Russian army.

Even as the US and its allies celebrate this week that Russia has so far been thwarted in its attempt to annex Ukraine, few developments could have far more ramifications than Kiev stands for.

If the last remaining arms treaty between the world’s two biggest nuclear powers collapses, there will be no limits on US and Russian nuclear forces for the first time since the 1970s. The risks of nuclear launch – intentional or otherwise – will increase.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said, “A world without nuclear weapons control is far more dangerous and unstable.”

And if China were to fully convert its economic and diplomatic support for Russia into military aid, it would mark a major change in how China approaches foreign policy, raising already high tensions between the US and China. Has been and is making the world more dangerous.

Brian Hart, who studies the evolving nature of Chinese power at the Center for Strategic Studies, said, “It will return us … to the kind of things we saw in the Cold War, where you had all these major countries intervening in conflicts and proxy wars.” Have been.” and International Studies.

Here’s what you need to know:

What did Russia do?

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Tuesday that he is suspending Moscow’s participation in New START, the last remaining nuclear arms reduction deal between the US and Russia. It limits the number of long-range nuclear weapons Russia and the US have, including those that can reach the US in about 30 minutes.

What’s the concern?

According to the Federation of American Scientists, without arms control, the US and Russian nuclear arsenals could double in size. Hans M. Christensen, director of the federation’s Nuclear Information Project, said that each country could dramatically and quickly increase the number of nuclear weapons ready to launch at short notice.

“Such an escalation would be extraordinarily destabilizing and dangerous, especially given a full-scale war underway in Europe and Russia, which is under unprecedented sanctions pressure,” Christensen wrote last year.

Is It Time To Panic?

No, Putin has not put an end to the treaty yet.

He has said that Russia will not participate in inspections and other mechanisms to enforce limits on nuclear weapons. But the Russian Foreign Ministry said Moscow would respect the treaty’s arms limits. And there is no indication that Putin will suddenly produce new weapons, according to Joe Sirincione, an arms control expert and member of the Council on Foreign Relations.

Cirincione thinks Putin is raising the nuclear threat to intimidate Ukraine’s allies.

“He understands that he is losing this war,” Cirincione said on MSNBC, “They must convince the Western public that they risk nuclear war by continuing to aid Ukraine.”

Hasn’t Putin done this before

Yes. Putin ordered Russian nuclear forces on high war alert shortly after invading Ukraine last February. In December, he said that Russia would continue to maintain and improve the combat readiness of nuclear weapons, which can be fired from land, air and sea.

Heather Williams, an arms control expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote in a recent analysis, “Russian President Vladimir Putin has relied on nuclear weapons for coercion and intimidation and will continue to be a nuclear threat.” “The West may not be able to stop Putin from threatening to use nuclear weapons, but countries can work to prevent him from following through on those threats.”

Ben Rhodes, who was President Barack Obama’s top national security adviser, said even though Putin’s latest move is a gamble, “it just points to the fact that we’re in this kind of escalation period with Russia where we I don’t know where this is going to end.”

What is happening with China?

Since the invasion, China has helped Russia financially by buying its oil and gas. China has also sold drones, microchips and other technologies to Russia that have both commercial and military applications. But Beijing has not allowed Russia to buy ammunition, artillery, armed drones and other weapons.

That can change. Top Biden administration officials warned this week that they have intelligence that China is considering providing lethal support to Russia.

In response, a spokesman for China’s foreign ministry accused the US of “chasing a shadow and defaming China”.

But while the White House has not made the evidence public, the warnings are reminiscent of the administration’s pre-invasion intelligence about Putin’s plans.

Can China Directly Help Russia?

Hart of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said that the war in Ukraine has been good for China in many ways. This has made Russia more dependent on China and alienated the US – China’s main rival. But China does not want Russia, its most powerful ally on the global stage, to be seriously sidelined from the war.

“Overall, Beijing’s alignment with Russia is driven first and foremost by collective concerns about the United States and competition with the United States. The more you see direct competition between Beijing and Washington, the more you will see Beijing’s willingness to strengthen ties with Moscow,” he said. “That’s the triangle that’s facing them.”

How will America react?

The Biden administration has warned of “serious consequences” if China helps Russia replenish its military supplies.

State Department spokesman Ned Price said, “We will not hesitate to target Chinese companies or individuals who violate our sanctions.”

China’s economy is already struggling. But major sanctions against China – which is a much bigger economic player than Russia – will also have an impact on the US and other countries.

What would this mean for the geopolitical order?

China’s direct involvement would mark a major shift in its approach to foreign policy, one so baffling that China expert Oriana Skylar Mastro said she would “have to rethink everything we know about China.”

China views US foreign military intervention as a costly effort that has not made America more powerful. He has adopted a different approach.

“I’m much less concerned about what it means for Ukraine and what it means for the world if we’re dealing with a China that engages in interference and foreign conflicts, which is an important thing,” he argued. has been the cause of America’s downfall for decades and decades, it’s a stupid thing to do, something they will never do,” she said.

But if China makes that radical change, said Mastro, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and Stanford University, it will “absolutely” make the world a more dangerous place.

While China makes it difficult for the US to coerce autocrats, for example, from joining in with sanctions, she said, “that’s very different from actively providing support.”

A New Cold War?

Tensions are rising with China, which the US views as its biggest strategic and economic rival. Before the Biden administration shot down a Chinese spy balloon off the coast of South Carolina this month, nations clashed over Taiwan, technology, human rights, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and other issues.

The Biden administration is trying to stabilize the relationship, calling it a “railing” as it normalizes the conversation. But it can get tough fast.

Discussing the new threat, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on CBS’s “Face the Nation,” “We have to make sure that the competition we are ostensibly engaged in doesn’t turn into a conflict, a new cold wave.” turn into war.” “It’s not in our interest. I won’t talk about them, but it’s not in ours.

In a vaguely worded resolution China released Friday calling for peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, it also called for an end to the “Cold War mentality” — China’s standard term for what it calls US hegemony and alliances like NATO. treated as maintenance.

Contribution: Associated Press

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