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Revealed: The percentage by which Burnley sacking Sean Dyche has improved survival chances

Revealed: The percentage by which Burnley sacking Sean Dyche has improved survival chances

What a whirlwind couple of weeks it has proven at Burnley Football Club…

From the depths of despair to the highs of elation, the Clarets, as things stand, look primed to stave off relegation from the top-flight of English football once again, amid a remarkable turnaround in both performances and results.

So, just what has changed?

The most obvious answer, of course, comes in the form of the dismissal of long-time boss Sean Dyche.

So recently viewed as untouchable on the bench at Turf Moor, amid a spell of five defeats in six, including, crucially, a 2-0 downing at the hands of basement-dwellers Norwich City, those in a position of power in Lancashire came to the decision that their beloved headmaster of a full ten years would be dismissed with immediate effect on April 15th.

The call, initially, was met with widespread bemusement, particularly on the part of rival fanbases, many of whom felt as though a Dyche-inspired late-season turnaround represented Burnley’s only realistic shot at staying up.

The results, though, speak for themselves… And altogether impressive the ensuing results have been.

First up, just two days on from Dyche’s exit, came a daunting trip to high-flying West Ham, a fixture overseen by caretaker boss Mike Jackson, aided by Connor King and club captain Ben Mee.

A credible 1-1 stalemate followed, as a long overdue first-half strike on the part of January addition Wout Weghorst was cancelled out late on by Tomas Soucek.

Next up came a crunch meeting with Ralph Hasenhuttl’s Southampton, a fixture which Burnley were no doubt wary of after watching the Saints deal a blow to Arsenal’s top-four hopes just days prior.

In truth, though, the Clarets went on to make short work of the visitors to Turf Moor, sealing a 2-0 triumph courtesy of goals from Connor Roberts and Nathan Collins.

This brought us as far as this past weekend, when Mike Jackson’s troops welcomed Wolves to Lancashire.

And, built on the kind of stout defensive display for so long synonymous with the tactical nous of now former boss Dyche, Burnley, once more, emerged with all three points, this time through a solitary Matej Vydra effort just beyond the hour mark:

Burnley hierarchy justified

So, with seven points from nine now in the bag, just what does the resurgence being enjoyed by all associated with Burnley Football Club mean for their chances of survival?

The northwest outfit have officially clawed their way out of the bottom three, in the process plunging Frank Lampard’s Everton into peril.

With both Watford and Norwich all-but consigned to the drop, three clubs – Burnley, Everton and Leeds – can therefore currently be considered as ‘in danger’.

It is the latter who boast the clear advantage at present, sitting 16th, two points clear of Mike Jackson and co. whilst in possession of a game in hand, set to play out at Selhurst Park later this evening.

Everton, meanwhile, sit 18th, two points back of Burnley, and too with a game more to play.

LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND – APRIL 24: Frank Lampard gives instructions during the Premier League match between Liverpool and Everton at Anfield on April 24, 2022 in Liverpool, England. (Photo by Clive Brunskill/Getty Images)

However, it would be remiss not to highlight the difficult nature of the run-in facing the Merseysiders over the weeks to come.

Frank Lampard is yet to guide his side into meetings with all of Chelsea, Leicester City and Arsenal, the latter pair of which come in the form of visits to the King Power Stadium and Emirates respectively.

Burnley’s only true ‘daunting’ outing still to come, on the other hand, consists of a trip to north London to face Tottenham Hotspur, likely to still be in the thick of the Premier League’s top-four battle with just two weeks remaining in the campaign.

All of this information taken into account, then, just how big a boost have the survival hopes of the Clarets been dealt by the dismissal of Sean Dyche, and ensuing efforts of Mike Jackson?

Well, as per FiveThirtyEight, an altogether considerable one…

According to the statistics-based website’s complex algorithm, two days prior to the change on the club’s bench, fresh off the back of a 2-0 defeat at Norwich, Burnley were rated at a 59% probability of being condemned to the Championship come the season’s end, with a predicted points tally of just 33.

Burnley manager Sean Dyche applauds the fans ahead of the Premier League match at Carrow Road, Norwich. Picture date: Sunday April 10, 2022. (Photo by Adam Davy/PA Images via Getty Images)

Two weeks, and seven points secured from nine later, though, the Lancashire club, eyeing a 7th successive term in the top-tier of English football, are now viewed at just 27% likely to be the final team relegated from the Premier League.

This comes with Burnley boasting an updated expected tally of 37 points, two more than Everton.

A 32% swing in the favour of the Clarets, a testament to the bravery and validity of the decision on the part of the board at Turf Moor to send Sean Dyche on his way with just eight games remaining in the campaign.

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Revealed: The percentage by which Burnley sacking Sean Dyche has improved survival chances


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