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2018 Are We Too Protective Of Our Trades? The (Dimmawit) Key Forward Gambit

I've long thought a lot of people on here are too precious with their trades. Anyone who espouses a plan to use a pinch hitter usually finds a post or two decrying that they are burning trades, and will soon regret it, or run out.
Here's the thing though. All of us ....... ALL OF US, pull what turn out to be sour trades, each and every season. Quite often these sour trades are the spur of the moment, made on the run trades, and we end up beating ourselves up over it. Fair enough too. Make a spur of the moment, unresearched trade, and you get what you deserve, to some level. So what is wrong with going in with a plan to ride the wave of a hopeful hot streak, then jumping ship? I say nothing!

Let's look at a few examples from the past, starting with the one made famous by our very own Dimmawits:
Cloke in 2013.
(prices are what he was coming into the round)

Rnd 1 $436,300 - 92
Rnd 2 $436,300 - 79
Rnd 3 $436,300 - 133
Rnd 4 $456,400 - 195
Rnd 5 $515,900 - 63
Rnd 6 $552,700 - 124
Rnd 7 $575,000

So after Round 6 he has scored 688 (Ave 114.7), risen $138,700 in price, and faced a B/E of 158.
The benefit of hindsight tells us this is the perfect storm, and seemingly only seen going forward by one person at the time, and he went on to win the whole shooting match! Cloke's season after this hot streak produced 15/87.5. That's not only poorish, but terrible for an asset priced at 115/game!

Waite in 2016.

Rnd 1 $435,200 - 122
Rnd 2 $435,200 - 174
Rnd 3 $435,200 - 123
Rnd 4 $507,500 - 129
Rnd 5 $563,900 - 103
Rnd 6 $575,000 - 105
Rnd 7 $574,900

After Round 6 he has scored 756 (Ave 126.0), risen $139,700 in price, and faced a B/E of 137.
For the remainder of the season Waite went 8/66.1!

JJK in 2013.
First a little background, In 2011 JJK went 20/86.8, and in 2012 he did an ankle, severly, early in Rnd 5. He came back and played the last 2 games, and 2 finals. Still, his SC season read 7/56.0, which gave him an opening price of $299,600!

Rnd 1 $299,600 - 109
Rnd 2 $299,600 - 103
Rnd 3 $299,600 - 136
Rnd 4 $374,700 - 68
Rnd 5 $448,000 - 124
Rnd 6 $449,600 - 80
Rnd 7 $457,000 - 83
Rnd 8 $448,300 -

After Round 7 he had scored 703 (Ave 100.4), but JJK's price had stagnated, and he was facing a B/E of 111. It was probably time to jump ship. His next 3 games went: 91, 121, 82, so we might have jumped ship early, but he was in danger of undoing the good work. Post Round 7 he managed 14/84.7, and post Round 10, if you were sharp enough to hang on, he went 11/81.1. After Round 7 his price had risen $148,700.


This post first appeared on SuperCoach Scores, please read the originial post: here

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2018 Are We Too Protective Of Our Trades? The (Dimmawit) Key Forward Gambit

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