Another HS article
Gary Ablett a SuperCoach no-go, Harrison Wigg, Sam Murray loom as must-haves
Ben Higgins, Herald Sun
December 13, 2017 8:30am
Subscriber only
THE prices are out, so how did some of our trade period SuperCoach fancies fare?
It’s been two months since the trade period and we’re looking back at how some of our predictions have played out as every club returns to pre-season training.
Gary Ablett has been the SuperCoach GOAT but looms as a disaster in 2018 while Brodie Smith’s injury at Adelaide could help Bryce Gibbs’ scoring potential.
We’ve looked back at what we said in the wake of the trade period and how each player projects to fare in 2018 now.
We warned you about Ablett in October and nothing’s changed but it looks brighter for some other SuperCoach prospects.
GARY ABLETT (Mid, Geelong)
Price: $631,100
THEN: Looms as a disaster in SuperCoach. With Joel Selwood and Patrick Dangerfield already entrenched in the Cats’ midfield. Even worse, his arrival could see Dangerfield spend more time forward. Ablett is a no-go in 2018.
NOW: Farewell, Gaz! From a SuperCoach perspective, Ablett has been on the decline for a couple of years - mainly due to injury - and his return to the Cats is the final nail. We highly doubt he’s going to get the midfield minutes at Geelong that he enjoyed at Gold Coast. And at 631k you want someone pumping out 120-plus week-in, week-out. Sorry, Gaz.
TOM ROCKLIFF (Mid, Port Adelaide)
Price: $529,400
THEN: Early whispers suggest Rocky could form a midfield-forward tandem with Robbie Gray. While a potential starting price of around $500k would be tempting, he could be a massive trap.
NOW: Gazza and now Rocky. It’s a changing of the SuperCoach guard. Sadly, the Power mid-forward rotations could have negative consequences for Rockliff, Gray and Chad Wingard. Port Adelaide’s midfield will certainly be flexible in 2018 and that doesn’t always translate well to SuperCoach scoring. Pre-season will be crucial.
HAYDEN CROZIER (Fwd, Western Bulldogs)
Price: $341,400
THEN: If the Bulldogs can successfully turn him into a playmaking half-back — ala SuperCoach favourites Matthew Boyd and Bob Murphy — he could be a mid-price success.
NOW: Are you the type that likes a mid-price gamble? Crozier could be the man for you! He’s come in 20k cheaper than forecast and is set to take over a half-back role at the Dogs, that has been a SuperCoach goldmine in the past. The forward line looks a little thin in 2018, so if you’re going to take a risk that’s the line to do it.
SAM MURRAY (Def, Collingwood)
Price: $123,900
THEN: Murray was targeted specifically by Collingwood, so expect to see him in Round 1. While he’s only played NEAFL, he took his disposal average from 14 to 22 per game.
NOW: We predicted a Mid-Fwd designation but Murray has been labelled a Defender only for 2018. While the dual position status would have been handy, cheap defenders are notoriously hard to come by, so we’re counting this as a win. If he does suit up for Collingwood in Round 1, don’t miss out.
HARRISON WIGG (Mid, Gold Coast)
Price: $123,900
THEN: The Crow-turned-Sun could be in more than 80 per cent of teams if he can bring his SANFL form to the Gold Coast. Wigg averaged 25 disposals, 5 tackles and 98 SuperCoach points this season.
NOW: We were going to name him a must-have cash cow but then there was some bad news. Wigg has fractured his ankle at training and is set to be sidelined for some time. He could still be back in time but if not the silver lining is we’ll have a handy mid-season downgrade option.
Harrison Wigg at Gold Coast pre-season training.
NATHAN WILSON (Def, Fremantle)
Price: $417,300
THEN: Wilson will walk into the playmaking half-back role at Fremantle. According to Champion Data, Wilson’s possession stats are trending nicely; averaging 11.7, 16.9 and 17.4 in the past three years.
NOW: The good news is Wilson is more than 30k cheaper than predicted in October. That makes him the 50th ranked defender on price. We reckon he’s under-priced and will be a popular pick entering the pre-season competition. With all bar four of the top 50 priced within 100k of Wilson, he’ll be an easy upgrade if he bombs.
MATTHEW KENNEDY (Mid, Carlton)
Price: $356,000
THEN: He’ll replace Bryce Gibbs. While his scoring hasn’t set the world on fire in his first two years, it’s to be expected in a stacked GWS midfield. Awkward price, though.
NOW: We were right, that is an awkward price. As such, we’ve cooled on the new Blue a bit. We’ll be watching the pre-season closely to see how Kennedy fares. Undoubtedly, there will be more opportunities in the Carlton midfield, it’s up to the Collingullie product to take them.
LACHIE WELLER (Mid, Gold Coast)
Price: $394,300
THEN: He’ll be the No.1 man at the Suns but it’s hard to see him reaching triple figures — or even a 90-plus average for that matter. What Weller could be is a handy early-season stepping stone.
NOW: Hello, Patrick Dangerfield. At least that’s what we hope to say after about four or five weeks of 2018. This might be a brave early call but as we predicted in October, Weller could be an ideal stepping stone and with Dangerfield a ridiculous $749k, those starting without him will be planning the easiest way to bring him in as early as possible.
DEVON SMITH (Fwd, Essendon)
Price: $439,100
THEN: Injuries haven’t been kind to Smith in the last two years, limiting him to 12 and 16 games and a SuperCoach average of 81 and 79. Previous to that he managed 21 and 20 games for a SuperCoach average of 91 and 89.
NOW: He’s still very much on the watchlist. He could be the new Robbie Gray or Toby Greene if he can regain his scoring form of old. If he does, he’s underpriced, so watch him closely during the pre-season. The Bombers certainly play a style suited to Smith.
BRYCE GIBBS (Mid, Adelaide)
Price: $630,000
THEN: The question will be, is there enough ball to go around? Gibbs has averaged more than 95 in eight of the past nine years but we’d caution picking him in 2018.
NOW: With Brodie Smith’s unfortunate injury, Gibbs could fill the breach at half-back and continue his elite SuperCoach scoring. “I’ve played a lot of half-back and back pocket in my career, so it’s certainly not a new position for me, ” Gibbs said. However, at $630k, you’ll be wanting a super-premium, so maybe wait until his price drops.
Gary Ablett a SuperCoach no-go, Harrison Wigg, Sam Murray loom as must-haves
Ben Higgins, Herald Sun
December 13, 2017 8:30am
Subscriber only
THE prices are out, so how did some of our trade period SuperCoach fancies fare?
It’s been two months since the trade period and we’re looking back at how some of our predictions have played out as every club returns to pre-season training.
Gary Ablett has been the SuperCoach GOAT but looms as a disaster in 2018 while Brodie Smith’s injury at Adelaide could help Bryce Gibbs’ scoring potential.
We’ve looked back at what we said in the wake of the trade period and how each player projects to fare in 2018 now.
We warned you about Ablett in October and nothing’s changed but it looks brighter for some other SuperCoach prospects.
GARY ABLETT (Mid, Geelong)
Price: $631,100
THEN: Looms as a disaster in SuperCoach. With Joel Selwood and Patrick Dangerfield already entrenched in the Cats’ midfield. Even worse, his arrival could see Dangerfield spend more time forward. Ablett is a no-go in 2018.
NOW: Farewell, Gaz! From a SuperCoach perspective, Ablett has been on the decline for a couple of years - mainly due to injury - and his return to the Cats is the final nail. We highly doubt he’s going to get the midfield minutes at Geelong that he enjoyed at Gold Coast. And at 631k you want someone pumping out 120-plus week-in, week-out. Sorry, Gaz.
TOM ROCKLIFF (Mid, Port Adelaide)
Price: $529,400
THEN: Early whispers suggest Rocky could form a midfield-forward tandem with Robbie Gray. While a potential starting price of around $500k would be tempting, he could be a massive trap.
NOW: Gazza and now Rocky. It’s a changing of the SuperCoach guard. Sadly, the Power mid-forward rotations could have negative consequences for Rockliff, Gray and Chad Wingard. Port Adelaide’s midfield will certainly be flexible in 2018 and that doesn’t always translate well to SuperCoach scoring. Pre-season will be crucial.
HAYDEN CROZIER (Fwd, Western Bulldogs)
Price: $341,400
THEN: If the Bulldogs can successfully turn him into a playmaking half-back — ala SuperCoach favourites Matthew Boyd and Bob Murphy — he could be a mid-price success.
NOW: Are you the type that likes a mid-price gamble? Crozier could be the man for you! He’s come in 20k cheaper than forecast and is set to take over a half-back role at the Dogs, that has been a SuperCoach goldmine in the past. The forward line looks a little thin in 2018, so if you’re going to take a risk that’s the line to do it.
SAM MURRAY (Def, Collingwood)
Price: $123,900
THEN: Murray was targeted specifically by Collingwood, so expect to see him in Round 1. While he’s only played NEAFL, he took his disposal average from 14 to 22 per game.
NOW: We predicted a Mid-Fwd designation but Murray has been labelled a Defender only for 2018. While the dual position status would have been handy, cheap defenders are notoriously hard to come by, so we’re counting this as a win. If he does suit up for Collingwood in Round 1, don’t miss out.
HARRISON WIGG (Mid, Gold Coast)
Price: $123,900
THEN: The Crow-turned-Sun could be in more than 80 per cent of teams if he can bring his SANFL form to the Gold Coast. Wigg averaged 25 disposals, 5 tackles and 98 SuperCoach points this season.
NOW: We were going to name him a must-have cash cow but then there was some bad news. Wigg has fractured his ankle at training and is set to be sidelined for some time. He could still be back in time but if not the silver lining is we’ll have a handy mid-season downgrade option.
Harrison Wigg at Gold Coast pre-season training.
NATHAN WILSON (Def, Fremantle)
Price: $417,300
THEN: Wilson will walk into the playmaking half-back role at Fremantle. According to Champion Data, Wilson’s possession stats are trending nicely; averaging 11.7, 16.9 and 17.4 in the past three years.
NOW: The good news is Wilson is more than 30k cheaper than predicted in October. That makes him the 50th ranked defender on price. We reckon he’s under-priced and will be a popular pick entering the pre-season competition. With all bar four of the top 50 priced within 100k of Wilson, he’ll be an easy upgrade if he bombs.
MATTHEW KENNEDY (Mid, Carlton)
Price: $356,000
THEN: He’ll replace Bryce Gibbs. While his scoring hasn’t set the world on fire in his first two years, it’s to be expected in a stacked GWS midfield. Awkward price, though.
NOW: We were right, that is an awkward price. As such, we’ve cooled on the new Blue a bit. We’ll be watching the pre-season closely to see how Kennedy fares. Undoubtedly, there will be more opportunities in the Carlton midfield, it’s up to the Collingullie product to take them.
LACHIE WELLER (Mid, Gold Coast)
Price: $394,300
THEN: He’ll be the No.1 man at the Suns but it’s hard to see him reaching triple figures — or even a 90-plus average for that matter. What Weller could be is a handy early-season stepping stone.
NOW: Hello, Patrick Dangerfield. At least that’s what we hope to say after about four or five weeks of 2018. This might be a brave early call but as we predicted in October, Weller could be an ideal stepping stone and with Dangerfield a ridiculous $749k, those starting without him will be planning the easiest way to bring him in as early as possible.
DEVON SMITH (Fwd, Essendon)
Price: $439,100
THEN: Injuries haven’t been kind to Smith in the last two years, limiting him to 12 and 16 games and a SuperCoach average of 81 and 79. Previous to that he managed 21 and 20 games for a SuperCoach average of 91 and 89.
NOW: He’s still very much on the watchlist. He could be the new Robbie Gray or Toby Greene if he can regain his scoring form of old. If he does, he’s underpriced, so watch him closely during the pre-season. The Bombers certainly play a style suited to Smith.
BRYCE GIBBS (Mid, Adelaide)
Price: $630,000
THEN: The question will be, is there enough ball to go around? Gibbs has averaged more than 95 in eight of the past nine years but we’d caution picking him in 2018.
NOW: With Brodie Smith’s unfortunate injury, Gibbs could fill the breach at half-back and continue his elite SuperCoach scoring. “I’ve played a lot of half-back and back pocket in my career, so it’s certainly not a new position for me, ” Gibbs said. However, at $630k, you’ll be wanting a super-premium, so maybe wait until his price drops.
