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Round 2 Preview: Penguins vs Caps

Will we see a repeat this spring?
(Photo: Gregory Shamus/Getty Images).

So here we are again.

A familiar round, a familiar foe, familiar buildings and fans.

But a different feel

The Pittsburgh Penguins and Washington Capitals get together for the third time in the Sidney Crosby/Alex Ovechkin eras with Crosby and the Pens holding a two Series to none lead.  Also after those two series, the Penguins went on to win the Stanley Cup in 2009 and last year.

Gonna get this out-of-the-way now…..the winner of this series will hoist the Cup in a month or so.  If for nothing else than the NHL’s ridiculous post-season schedule where the two best teams in the entire league meet before even the Conference Finals.  Could you imagine in the NFL having the 1 and 2 seed meeting in the Second round?

In fact, after the Pens and Caps you have something like the following seeds remaining:  6, 8, 9, 10, 12, and 16.

Here this paints a better picture…..

I bet the execs at NBC are drooling at the thought of a Nashville vs Ottawa Stanley Cup Final……

Finishing a long grind of a regular season is supposed to be rewarded come playoff time, not met with murderer’s row.  The Metro’s fourth seeded NY Rangers have a much easier path to the Cup then Washington, Pittsburgh, and recently dispatched Columbus.  Makes sense….

But, you play who the schedule has in front of you.

Last year it was the same scenario and it worked out just fine.  You’ll eventually run into a good team at some point anyways and hey, it’s Pens and Caps.  You knew it was coming at some point this Spring.

Season Series

The games between the clubs were wild ones.  Washington took a 7-1 rout in D.C. early in the season, and who can forget the wild 8-7 affair at PPG Paints Arena early in the New Year.  Both teams have two wins against each other this season, with both Pens victories coming in overtime.  Thanks mostly to the 6-goal margin in their first meeting, the Caps outscored Pittsburgh 21-14 in the season series.

Both teams boast a majority of their roster from last Spring’s six game classic.  The biggest difference is the addition of Kevin Shattenkirk to the Caps after a trade with the St Louis Blues.

The Caps defense as a unit is much stronger this Spring, if you remember last year, Pittsburgh exposed Washington’s bottom pair.  Especially after Brooks Orpik received a three game suspension for head contact on Olli Maatta.

That looks to not be the case this year, even if Karl Alzner has been banged up and missed a few games in the Caps series with Toronto.

That series was a tougher one than expected for Washington, despite the 4 games to 2 series win.  Most of those games went to overtime, and Caps goalie Braden Holtby looked shaky at times even when bailing the Caps out.

Injuries and Returns

The Caps are pretty healthy at the present time.  Alzner missing four games and defenseman Nate Schmidt being a question mark after taking a knee on knee hit in Game 6 against Toronto.

On the Pittsburgh side of things….Kris Letang being out is going to be huge.  As we all know Letang is done until training camp with having just had neck surgery.  Chris Kunitz appears on track to play in Game 1 on Thursday and has been taking practice rushes with the fourth line.  Carl Hagelin has skated on his own the past few days and Coach Sullivan has expressed confidence that he can return during this series.  We also heard that before the Columbus series as well.  Goalie Matt Murray has not resumed even skating after being injured in warm ups before Game 1 against Columbus.

Here’s Mike

Let’s get some thoughts from my partner in crime, Mike Warren, including a predicition before I come back to wrap it up.

Thoughts/Keys to Penguins vs. Capitals.

1. Braden Holtby vs the Penguins goaltending situation: Holtby has been prone to meltdowns against the Penguins and Pittsburgh proved in round 1 they can cause fits. Bobrovsky was a Vezina candidate and the Penguins got to him. Pittsburgh needs to do the same against Holtby to have a chance. I predicted in the first round for Columbus to have a chance Bobrovsky would need to steal some games and obviously that didn’t happen. In round 2 I think it goes the other way. For the Penguins to win Holtby needs to play badly.

Looking at the Pens situation in goal while it worked out well in round 1, in round 2 I could see people calling for Murray to get back in and this back and forth finally tipping in the opposite direction for the Pens. Saying that it could be that MAF just plays great and carries the Pens or plays bad and Murray comes in and steals the series. I think whatever teams goalie situation doesn’t fluctuate wildly will be the team that wins the series.

2. Superstars vs Depth: Pittsburgh has the advantage in high-end talent, Washington has the advantage in terms of good depth players. Crosby, Malkin, and Kessel over Ovechkin and Backstrom. If all 3 Pens guys can click than the series could swing towards Pittsburgh. The reason I’m picking Washington though is that i don’t think the difference at the top is great enough to make up for some of the Capitals advantages throughout the rest of the lineup.

3. Pittsburgh defense: How will it hold up against a great team without Letang. It was not an encouraging sign to see the number of chances that Columbus got in round 1. Those same chances will get buried by a team like Washington. I know the Pittsburgh guys rose up last year but this collection is just weak and I think this is the spot where it costs them. Its sad too since an injury is once again what cost’s this team.

4. Caps Motivation: This is it for Washington. To me, they were not far away from beating the Penguins last year and now I think this is the Stanley Cup final for them. This is what they have been ready for the last 2 years. Washington is a good team and it’s hard to just consistently beat a good team time and time again. For that reason, I think the Caps get this series

5. What style will be played?: Trying to think of a way for the series to breakdown that will lead to a Penguins win and I just can’t come up with one. I think if they try to skate the Caps can do that if they try to muck it up the Caps can play that way as well. As noted earlier the three superstars could just lite it up but I don’t see that happening without the Capitals countering. It’s very similar to how I thought the Blue Jackets simply could not beat the Pens no matter what they did because the Penguins were simply a better team. The Capitals are a deeper, hungrier team with a huge chip on their shoulder and that will lead to the series win.

Caps in 6
(Could this just be a reverse jinx, goodness I hope so)
Series Schedule
https://twitter.com/penguins/status/856341720245702657
Prediction Time

Awww, look at the bff’s. NHL.com

I HATE, HATE, HATE, HATE this matchup.  Loathe entirely, if you will.  Everything points to the Caps getting over the hump and moving on.  Pittsburgh’s breakouts were TERRIBLE in the CBJ series.  Giving up 40 or 50 shots in this series could be a five game exit.  Watching Pittsburgh being stuck in their own end for 5 or ten minutes at a time is something that cannot happen over the next two weeks.  Washington is the deepest, most balanced team left in these playoffs.  As I said up above…THIS is your Stanley Cup Final.

Pittsburgh beat Washington last year because of their speed and not having #58 and Hags (at least initially) takes a lot of that advantage away.

Can Marc Andre Fleury continue his resurgence?  Boy we better hope so.  The Caps are gonna bring guns blazing Thursday night and attempt to set a tone.  Winning one game in D.C. is PIVITOL to Pittsburgh getting out of the second round.  They were a shaky road team all year, and MAF’s numbers on the road are not the best.  God help all of us if we have to turn to Tristian Jarry.

Nick Backstrom gives Crosby fits.  Forget Brandon Douche-binsky, Backstrom is the one player in the league who can shut Crosby down.  From the face off circle to his defensive play, Backstrom is the true key for the Caps in this series.

Evgeni Malkin continuing his tear from round 1 would be an ideal scenario for the Pens.  Both he and Crosby were quiet against Washington last year.  It’s can’t happen again this Spring.

Pittsburgh has heart and the know-how of a Champion…..Washington does not.  The second round Washington jinx will be on everyone’s mind.  That mental hurdle is real.  If Pittsburgh can get out fast early, the rent they take up in Washington’s head may come into play.

So in the end my heart and head are at odds here.  My head says Caps in 6…..but….

Thanks, Naitch!

And until someone beats that man…..I ain’t picking against them.

Pens in 7

Other Series:

OTT vs. NYR:
Mike:  New York in 5
Jason:  New York in 7
Western Semis
STL vs. NSH:
Mike:  Nashville in 7
Jason:  Nashville in 6

ANA vs. EDM:
Mike:  Anaheim in 6
Jason:  Anaheim in 6
Thanks for reading!  Let’s Go Pens!!!

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Round 2 Preview: Penguins vs Caps

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