If the Eagles want to pick up an extra pick, history says it won't be a good one.
The Philadelphia Eagles have seven draft picks in the 2016 Draft, but after a series of trades over the past two years, they have just two picks in the top 100, the remaining five picks are in the bottom 100 of the draft. After taking Carson Wentz with the 2nd overall pick, they are scheduled to make their second selection with the 79th overall pick, then will wait almost as long to make their third selection at 153rd overall.
With the lack of quality of picks, the Eagles may decide to make up for it by increasing their quantity of picks. Looking at draft-pick-for-draft-pick trades since the 2011 CBA, we can get a good idea of what to expect in a trade back.
The best chance the Eagles have to pick up an extra pick is to trade back from the 79th pick. This would be a particularly frustrating option for fans as they will have waited hours for the Eagles to make a selection only to have to wait even longer. By looking at the 10 picks before and after 79th, should the Eagles trade back we can reasonably expect them to either move back about five spots in the 3rd and add a 6th, or move back into the 4th and pick up an additional 4th. Teams with multiple 4th rounders this year are the Browns, Buccaneers, Chiefs (who do not have a 3rd after the Jeremy Maclin tampering penalties), Rams (who after their trade to #1 overall have no 2nd or 3rd rounder), and Ravens.
|69||71, 217||95, 112, 176, 181|
|70||82, 152, 229|
|76||80, 182||80, 193|
If the Eagles are going to move down, this is most likely where it happens.
The Eagles have no 4th round pick but do have two 5ths: 153rd and 164th. If they wanted to pick up an extra pick by trading down in the 5th, they would expect to move down about 10-15 spots and pick up a 7th rounder. As the Eagles already have two 7th round picks, trading back in the 5th makes little sense.
|145||158, 229||155, 227|
|148||158, 230||168, 225|
|149||221, 2015 5th|
|153||w/ 227 for 161, 194||163, 236|
|163||174, 231||197, 224, 235|
The Eagles 6th round pick is the 188th selection and just like the 5th round, if they wanted to trade back they could expect to move down about 15 spots and add a 7th. However, there have only been two* trade backs in the 6th round since 2011 compared to 17 trade backs in the 5th.
*In 2011 the Eagles and Patriots swapped the 193rd and 194th picks "just for fun."
If the Eagles are to make a trade to get an extra pick, they would be better off trading a player. Expect the Eagles to stand pat on all of their picks this year, or possibly use one of the 7ths to move up.
This post first appeared on Bleeding Green Nation, A Philadelphia Eagles Commu, please read the originial post: here