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Fantasy football start/sit advice guide: Best and worst picks for NFL Week 7

Helping you pick your lineups.

Disclaimer: Starts and Sits are relative to where a player is ranked on the aggregate. In other words, a “Start” is someone I like more than most, and a “Sit” is the opposite. So if I say to start Tyrod Taylor and sit Cam Newton, that doesn't mean I'd start Taylor over Newton, it just means I think Taylor will exceed his expectations while Cam will underperform his. Cool? Cool. Let's get it. -Seltz

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QUARTERBACK

START

Carson Wentz (vs. WAS) – OK. Let's hit this right off the top. I recommended Kevin Hogan last week. Yup. Yupppppp. I know. I know! WTF was I thinking. I mean, yikes. I'm not even going to try and justify it by pointing out that I only liked him in relation to his consensus #22 ranking. I won't even mention that. Well, I won't mention it again. Regardless, I'll take it on the chin. I sucked and I'm sorry. However, I can promise not to make the same mistake again. That will be the last time I tell you to start a Browns QB (I still can't believe I said “start” and “Browns QB” period...ever). But I'll take it a step further, I'm going the complete opposite way – I'm recommending the anti-Browns QB, aka the quarterback the Browns didn't want. LOL Browns. Anyhoo, Wentz is going to have a field day Monday night against a severely depleted Washington secondary (more on that later), and he's a downright steal in daily formats. Granted, I used that exact same phrase when talking about Kevin Hogan last week, but there's no way I could look like an idiot two weeks in a row, right? Uhhhhhhh...let's move on. Quickly.

Tyrod Taylor (vs. TB) – Jeez louise am I long-winded. We're off to a bad start. I'll do my best to tighten it up. No promises though, I am who I am. Having said that, let's give it a whirl – this one is pretty simple. Tyrod is undervalued this week. Boom. Done. Just kidding. The Bucs have allowed the third-most Fantasy points to opposing QB's. Ok, now I'm actually done.

SIT

Cam Newton (@ CHI) – To be honest, I'm not that down on Cam this week. He's got a high floor because of the rushing yards he'll accrue, but the Bears' Defense has been surprisingly decent, and they've done a particularly good job limiting fantasy points to quarterbacks. So while I think Cam will be fine this week – as the disclaimer says, I'd certainly start him over Tyrod Taylor – I don't think he'll put up the numbers that his consensus #7 ranking should demand. How's that for a tepid, ice cold take? *Elvis voice* Thank you. Thank you very much.

Ben Roethlisberger (vs. CIN) – I'll bet you Big Ben is an Elvis fan. He seems like an Elvis guy. Not sure why, but he totally does. In fact, I'm just going to assume he's an Elvis guy. Ben Roethlisberger is a huge Elvis Presley fan. #Fact. Speaking of facts, Ben is way (WAY) better at home than on the road. That's a fact. But here's another fact, *lowers voice to a whisper* Ben Roethlisberger isn't good at football anymore. Sorry, but it's true. As a result, the Steelers are going to hand the ball to Lev Bell...a lot. Ben is going to be more of a game manager than a gun slinger. Yeah, I said it. He's a game manager. Deal with it. Add in a matchup with a good Bengals pass defense, and Ben is a clear sit, even at home.

RUNNING BACK

START

Adrian Pederson (@ LAR) – I have a confession to make – I thought Adrian Pederson was cooked. C-O-O-K-E-D. And I can't be the only one because, you know, he looked cooked. So, mea culpa I guess. And while I still don't think AP is going to be an every week fixture in your fantasy lineup, he should be this week against a Rams defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs. However, despite the clear upside, Pederson is only the consensus #16 running back and is massively underpriced in daily formats. So I guess what I'm trying to say is, Adrian Pederson doesn't suck anymore and you should start him against a crappy defense.

Dion Lewis (vs. ATL) – I hate owning Patriots running backs in fantasy. It's infuriating. Just ask Mike Gillislee owners, they'll back me up. You never really know who's going to win the day. One week you're scoring 3 touchdowns and the next you're an afterthought. Ask Mike Gillislee himself, he'll back me up on that one. Either way, Lewis was the guy who won the day last week and looked good in doing it. Now why would that matter considering I just said that never matters with the Patriots, you may ask. And that'd be a great question. It doesn't really. What matters is that the Falcons are among the worst teams in the league at defending RB's in the passing game. Dion Lewis is good in the passing game. He's also the consensus #32 running back. That's too low. Don't forget to @ me after Gillislee scores 6 touchdowns and Lewis fails to get a touch. God I hate the Patriots.

Bonus Super Sleeper Start:

Marlon Mack (vs. JAX) – Marlon Mack is better than Frank Gore. That's obvious to anyone with two eyes. Or one eye for that matter. Honestly, I'll bet people with no eyes can tell. Even Chuck Pagano has to know Mack is better...right? Pagano, one of the 32 men on the planet who is an NFL head coach, can't possibly prefer Gore. He can't...can he? Yeah, you're right. He totally can. Pagano's the worst. Which is a shame because the Jags have allowed the highest YPC average in the league. If Mack gets some opportunities, he could have a huge day. But that would assume Chuck Pagano won't screw it up. Ugh. Pagano's going to screw it up. Let's move on.

SIT

Melvin Gordon (vs. Denver) – Somehow my long-windedness came back. My bad. Seltz, get it together. Ok, I'm ready. Let's do this. Gordon's had back-to-back monster weeks and is the consensus #7 RB heading into the weekend. However, Gordon is only averaging 3.6 YPC (not good) and is facing a Broncos defense that's yielding a minuscule 3.0 YPC on the way to allowing the least fantasy points to opposing running backs. And yes, I know Orleans Darkwa had a huge game last week, but I think that game was an aberration for the Broncos across the board. So, yeah.

DeMarco Murray (@ CLE) – How in the world is Murray the consensus #17 running back this week? How? HOW??? That's just...absurd. First and foremost, Murray is banged up. Second, he's not the best RB on his own team. Third, for as awful as they are, the Browns have actually been pretty good at defending the run (second-lowest YPC average in the NFL). Fourth...I don't have a fourth. The three should be enough. Sit Murray.

WIDE RECEIVER

START

Alshon Jeffrey (vs. WAS) – Remember when I said “more on that later” when talking about the depleted Washington secondary? Wait, what do you mean “no”?! How can you not remember? It was only a few minutes ago. Whatever. I said it. You can scroll up if you don't believe me. Regardless, now is the “later” I was referring to. Washington's secondary is severely depleted. Josh Norman is expected to be out and Bashaud Breeland (their other starting CB) may be as well. They have no one who can cover Alshon. This is it, you guys. It's finally happening. This will be the Alshon Jeffrey break out week and I cannot freaking wait.

Pierre Garcon (vs. DAL) – Ok. Back to brevity. Here's why Garcon is an obvious start: he's received double-digit targets in back-to-back weeks and has at least 21 more targets than anyone else on the Niners. He's facing a Dallas pass defense that is bad. Really, really bad. Lastly, C.J. Beathard has to be better than Brian Hoyer...I think.

SIT

Jordy Nelson (vs. NO) – Aaron Rodgers is great. Brett Hundley is bad. One of those two guys will be playing quarterback on Sunday. Yup, it's the crappy one. Sadly, that also makes Jordy crappier. He certainly looked crappier with Hundley last week after Rodgers went down. Yet Nelson is still the consensus #12 wide receiver heading into the weekend. That's...crazy. Especially against a not terrible Saints pass defense...but more on that later (don't forget this time!).

T.Y. Hilton (vs. JAX) – This one is easy. The Jags have the best pass defense in the league. They have two of the best corners in the NFL, and maybe, probably (definitely) the #1 overall top dawg in Jalen Ramsey. Hilton has only had two good games this season, both coming against bad pass defenses (Browns and Niners), and is coming off a 1 catch, 4 yard performance against the Titans. In spite of all that, he's the consensus #19 wide receiver heading into the weekend. Why? Your guess is as good as mine.

TIGHT END

START

Hunter Henry (vs. DEN) – The Broncos defense is good at everything except Defending Tight Ends. Weird, huh? No. I guess it's not that weird. My bad. Point is they suck at it. If you don't believe me, just ask Evan Engram. Speaking of which, has anyone heard back from Mike Gillislee yet? No? Ok. Keep me updated. Back to tight ends against the Broncos - aka Hunter Henry this week. After a rocky start to the season, Henry has finally found a role in the Chargers offense (15 targets over the last two weeks) and has subsequently produced fantasy points. Expect more of the same against the aforementioned tight end friendly Broncos defense.

Kyle Rudolph (vs. BAL) – As I said fairly aggressively, Denver is bad at defending tight ends. Well guess what, the Ravens are worse. Didn't see that coming, did ya? Rudolph has 9 targets in back-to-back weeks and seems to be developing a rapport with Case Keenum. As the consensus #11 tight end, Rudolph is very likely to exceed his expected value and *BOLD PREDICTION VOICE* will score a touchdown against the Ravens. Quick side note, who names their kid “Case”? I mean, really? That's the best you got...Case?!? *PREEMPTIVE APOLOGY VOICE* If your name is Case and you are reading this, sorry. That wasn't cool and I apologize...Case.

SIT

Cameron Brate (@ BUF) – Jameis Winston seems to trust Cameron Brate, especially in the red zone. As a result, Brate stands as the #4 scoring fantasy tight end on the season. And he has been valued as such. However, this week the role of Jameis Winston will be played by Ryan Fitzpatrick. That's not the best. Facing a tough Bills defense that's terrific at defending tight ends is also not the best.

Jordan Reed (@ PHI) – I will believe Jordan Reed is fully, legitimately healthy when...well...never I guess. He's never fully healthy. He certainly hasn't looked healthy this season and the results have borne that out (averaging 35.5 YPG over 4 games). The Eagles shut Reed down in Week 1, I expect them to do it again on Monday night.

DEFENSE

START

New Orleans Saints (@ GB) – I told you there'd be more! I know you remember this time. And if you don't, that's on you. I can't believe I'm about to say this, but the Saints' defense isn't awful. High praise, I know. New Orleans scored three defensive touchdowns last week, no reason to think they can't do it again. Lol. Kidding of course. Or am I? Yes. I am. But as I mentioned before, Brett Hundley is bad. He threw three interceptions last week. I think he throws more this week. And probably next week too, but that's beside the point. Point is, Hundley stinks and the Saints defense doesn't anymore.

SIT

Los Angeles Rams (vs. ARI) – There weren't any defenses that I really disliked this week. Well, none that anyone would own anyway. But I do think this Rams defense, coming off a 22-point outing, could be a slight disappointment. Arizona's offense looked good last week and Adrian Pederson should be able to run all over a bad Rams run defense. So, yeah. I guess I'd sit the Rams. Lol. Much like I thought of Adrian Pederson, I'm clearly cooked. Let's end this before it gets any worse. If that's even possible. #End

KICKER

START

Some guy who's playing in a dome or who's on a team with a good offense. Like Jake Elliott.

SIT

Any guy who doesn't qualify the above set standard for “Start.”

...

The newest and best app to play weekly Fantasy Football is DRAFT! Sign up now with the promo code BGNR and play a real money game for FREE! You win 80% more on Draft than regular salary cap sites! Don't like it? No problem, they guarantee your money back up to $100 if you don't.



This post first appeared on Bleeding Green Nation, A Philadelphia Eagles Commu, please read the originial post: here

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Fantasy football start/sit advice guide: Best and worst picks for NFL Week 7

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