I really had hopes of getting UFR out this week, but the fallout from last weekend's visitpalooza will continue until morale improves. Ben Roebuck, one of Michigan's top offensive line prospects, and one of the top prospects in Ohio, announced on Instagram yesterday that he's committed to Michigan. He did this moments after I posted the Hello from Tuesday's commitment, Cincinnati 4.5* RB Jordan Marshall. Marshall announced right after I posted on Monday's commitment, 2023 4* VA safety prospect Brandyn Hillman, another Michigan-Ohio State battle.

Was Roebuck actually a Michigan-Ohio State battle? OSU was his expected destination for the first half of the cycle, but never officially offered. They also traditionally withhold offers for born Buckeyes in-state because the act of giving one often leads to a commitment shortly thereafter. Clearly they viewed Roebuck differently than Marshall, but their reporters were really surprised an offer didn't come after Roebuck camped at Columbus last summer, and by all accounts faired as well as one of the top national tackle prospects was expected to. As was the case with Rod Moore a few cycles ago, Michigan began making up ground shortly thereafter, and the Buckeye reporters who are tightest with the local coaches were starting to openly wonder what's the deal. OSU skipped him again when they offered two other Saint Ed's offensive linemen in January, however by that point Roebuck was so obviously enamored with Michigan that he was making surprise pop-ins to Ann Arbor. We'll explore this too, but first there's about 6'7"/350 pounds of John Lennon's head on Ryan Hayes's body to assess.

GURU RATINGS

RATINGS BY SITE
247: 6'7/320	On3: 6'7/340	Rivals: 6'7/320	ESPN: 6'8/330
3*, 89, NR Ovr #24 OT, #12 OH	3*, 87, NR Ovr #67 OT, #43 OH	4*, 5.8, NR Ovr #31 OT, #12 OH	3*, not ranked
3.99	3.55	4.01	n/a
COMPOSITE RANKINGS
247 Composite	On3 Consensus	MGoBlog
3*, 0.8867, #455 Ovr #31 OT, #15 OH	3*, 87.6, #594 Ovr #40 OT, #20 OH	3.5*, #497/780 Ovr #38/54 OTs since 1990
3.87	3.76	3.84

His rankings have come down across the board. ESPN actually had a 79 on him earlier in the cycle, which got him ranked in their early top-300. Rivals had him ten spots higher among OTs. On3 moved him 28 spots down the OT rankings and all the way to #43 in Ohio. This is more than what you'd get from the normal recruiting gravity. He was 146th overall, the #5 OT, and #3 in Ohio just ten months ago, and the #2 prospect in Ohio (one ahead of Marshall) when the cycle began.

This could be the sites reading the continued lack of an official Ohio State offer, versus a reevaluation. Roebuck has been a Michigan lean for so long an OSU offer might have just been rebuffed as too late. On the other hand, they made the decision to be too late, which is not a decision they would have risked for Marshall. They also offered Roebuck's linemates, the Armstrong twins, in January. Sherrone Moore had been working hard on them, too, and that didn't stop the crystal balls from flying to OSU.

Anyway I viewed Roebuck as the bigger target than Hamilton initially, and since then the sites have flipped that.

[AFTER THE JUMP: At large.]

SCOUTING

[Instagram]

Roebuck is going to be a three-year starter, playing right tackle as a sophomore and junior, with the plan being to flip him to left tackle, though that was also the plan last year. For all of that, there's very little actual scouting. Allen Trieu saw him at the Under Armour regional in Columbus a year ago, and had all of this in his writeup:

Ben Roebuck also earned an MVP honor. Roebuck’s size and strength make him tough to beat.

Reporter Mark Porter was there to cover it for Bucknuts and reported a little more($).

Named MVP. Absolutely massive frame for a sophomore. Has plenty of power for the run game and was much improved in pass protection. Did very well vs. Detroit Cass Tech’s Jalen Thompson, one of the camp’s top pass rushers.

A lot of the talk about him centers around his weight. He's been listed at as much as 360 in the past, but took a lot off before last season. His coach:

“Well he's extremely intelligent first off,” St. Edward head coach Tom Lombardo said. “He understands schemes really well. He’s a physical blocker, finishes his blocks and is getting even better at that. We saw glimpses of that as a sophomore, but then last year, against good players he was dominant frankly and so we started to see it even more this year.”

“He got better athletically and with his footwork,” Lombardo added. “That was probably main thing. He trimmed down. He’s so big and a lot of coaches brought that up that they noticed how trimmed he looked. He was big as a sophomore but now he’s stronger and more fit.”

This was Ohio State's concern, even as late as last February.

“They've talked about getting my body right, getting faster and stronger,” Roebuck said. “I'm definitely still interested in Ohio State. I'm hoping to get back to Ohio State in the spring.”

And what they were telling Roebuck.

“It’s really my ability to move with my size. I’m one of the bigger O-tackles and I move well for my size. I’ve been told that by a lot of coaches.”

EJ Holland has the most extensive scouting thoughts from seeing Roebuck in action and in a camp setting, which he shared in a video.

With Roebuck, you have a ball of clay waiting to be molded. This kid is 6'7"/340 pounds, so we are talking about a true tackle prospect that is absolutely massive. … He's just so hard to get around just because of his size. He has good length as well. But when you're 6'7"/340 that helps out a lot.

But again it came back to the weight, and what seems to be an athletic ceiling akin to that of Luke Hamilton.

He's not carrying as much bad weight as you might think. He is going to have to trim up some fat and rebuild that with muscle … really excited to see what Ben Herbert can sculp Ben Roebuck into. …

he's a true tackle prospect once he cuts down the weight. That will also help with his footwork and help him be more nimble on his feet. Right now he's a little heavy-footed. I think that along with a lack of pure athleticism and being a little overweight are some of the things holding him back from a rankings perspective.

Holland has high praise for Roebuck's demeanor, and playing style, and less for his pass pro.

He loves to put guys in the dirt. He's really mean in the run game. He is kind of the tackle version of Luke Hamilton in terms of a guy that's a little heavy-footed, that's not a super athlete, but is definitely a guy who can just bury people in the run game, and loves to get nasty. I think again, once he gets in the strength and conditioning program, once he cuts down some of that weight, that will help with his flexibility. That will also help him become more athletic, and help him become more comfortable in pass sets.

That's not to say he's bad in pass sets either. I think he's a guy that just needs a little bit more work in that area.

EJ goes into a little more detail for subscribers here($). Adding fuel to the concerns over athleticism, On3 Notre Dame reporter Ashton Pollard reports Roebuck worked out in July with Harry Hiestand and came away on "offer watch" not an offer.

Could he end up inside then? The Wolverine's Drew Schott noted Moore told Roebuck that every lineman at Michigan gets trained at every position. But a 6'7" guy is probably staying at tackle.

Jeremy Birmingham is an OSU recruiting guy who mostly carries water for the program, and in return gets some perspectives from their staff on different players. Here I believe he's channeling what OSU was seeing from the three St. Ed's prospects:

There are not many offensive linemen in the country as big as Ben Roebuck and his teammates, Devontae and Deontae Armstrong are hyper-athletic for the position but very raw.

I may be reading way too much into this, but putting a damper on things is Steve Lorenz($):

Michigan views Roebuck as a high ceiling prospect. Was never in doubt as far as his status with the Wolverine staff despite being in good position with a lot of other guys.

If your boss ever tells you that your job was never in doubt because they see a lot of potential in you that's a good thing, but it also implies that maybe you or somebody else was thinking your job was in doubt, right? Like, this is a thing they might say about Connor Jones, but never about Andrew Gentry.

Finally there's the Hudl page which was probably written by one of his coaches.

Athletic, physical, punishing blocker. Feisty and flexible. Quick feet and hands. Plays at pad level. Frame length to be an offensive tackle in college. 84" wingspan. 10.5" hands.

For reference, the average wingspan at the 2023 NFL combine was 80.85, and the average hand size was 9.95.

OFFERS

The entire Midwest was in on this one. Wisconsin pre- and post-Fickell, Penn State, Michigan State, Notre Dame, etc. Boston College was his first offer, Clemson was in contact, and Ole Miss came to see if he's interested in the SEC, but it was mostly a Midwest battle. As for OSU's offer, Roebuck says at point they were recruiting him the hardest($, info in title). Bill Kurelic explained in August that there was a clock.

In the spring Ben Roebuck told me Ohio State was his top school. If the Buckeyes were to offer I think they would get a commitment from Roebuck as long as the offer did not come too late.

Whatever the lack of an Ohio State official offer says, they were recruiting him the whole cycle, and clearly only backed off when it was clear it was too late for anything but another L to That Better School Up North.

HIGH SCHOOL

[Instagram]

St. Edward is arguably the strongest or 2nd strongest (after Glenville) program in the state, both if we're talking generationally—it was a power when Roebucks' dad played there—and recently, as Ed's went 15-1 (9-0) last year against some of the best schools in the Great Lakes, losing by three to Washington-Massillon, and shutting out Jordan Marshall/Moeller 6-0 en route to a second consecutive D-I state championship. OL coach Danny Scanlon has been on staff since 1999; it's probably safe to say he's the most respected line coach in Ohio, and a nationally known name in the profession. This clip actually references a mistake he said he made while coaching Kyle Kalis.

If we're talking Michigan comps, they're the Orchard Lake St. Mary's and Glennville, the Cleveland magnet school, is Cass Tech. Except Ohio is twice the recruiting grounds that Michigan is, making Ed's one of the most important schools in the region. Michigan's rarely not had at least a walk-on from there on the roster, but some of the guys you'll recognize are Paul Girgash, John Zingales, Mark Erhardt, Jim Lyall, Kyle Kalis, Quintel Kent, and his classmate Caden Kolesar.* Other recent Big Ten 4-stars from St. Ed's include OSU's Nate Oliver ('07) and Alex Boone ('05), ND's Shaun Crawford ('15), MSU's Dowell brothers (the twins in '15, Michael in '18), Justin Staples ('08) of Illinois, Iowa's Diauntae Morrow ('07), and Northwestern's Greg Kuhar ('12) and Michael Kilbane ('23).

Lakewood is on the western end of Cleveland, still in Cuyahoga County, though it's a shorter drive to the outer burbs like Avon (Luke Hamilton) than downtown. The area around St Ed's is reminiscent of Ann Arbor: two- and three-story 1920s houses with oak beams and rectangular porches.

* [Michigan has had four Kolesars over three generations, all of them from around Cleveland, but none went to the same school.]

STATS

No stats, is OL.

FAKE 40 TIME

Um, time this.

I got 6.05 with my phone. Since I only did it once and I might have not pushed the button on my phone at the exact right times it gets one FAKE out of five.

VIDEO

Junior highlights:

St. Ed's was understandably right-handed last year. If you're up for watching a full game, last year's versus Massillon is on Youtube. Ed's scored off their first kickoff so start at 13:30 to see their offense (after a redzone turnover and an offsides).

Kurelic posted one pass set from OSU's camp last summer.

Sophomore highlights and individual games available at his Hudl page.

ETC.

Academics mentioned as a plus across the board.

PREDICTION BASED ON FLIMSY EVIDENCE

[Instagram]

Having the Armstrongs at his school provides an interesting comparison between the industry's take and the way the St. Ed's coaches see the three prospects. Roebuck made varsity a year ahead of the Armstrongs, out-performed the Armstrongs last year, and is moving to the position where everyone figured they were going to shift one of the Armstrongs. You could put that to development and relative ceilings (that's what Kurelic is going with) and that's plausible since the Armstrongs were 255 pounds in 2021. Except Michigan talks up Roebuck like they've got a killer at the other end of a development project, not the ready-made mauler he appears to be. It's clear Michigan made Roebuck the priority, not the twins. Might have been because of how the twins responded when asked what would happen if an Ohio State offer came? We know more than we usually do, and all it means is we know less than we usually do.

What I guess it means is that Roebuck was one of those early formed guys who mauls at a big school and thus gets rated among the top of his position early. As puberty brought the rest of his class up to size, and his game didn't go anywhere, he fell back to the pack. Michigan has had oodles of these guys, but they still have a good hit rate—the Matt Lentzes, not the Jake Longs.

Fortunately he has plenty of time. Michigan has a logjam at tackle right now, and Andrew Gentry leads the next generation. Roebuck should get at least two years to reshape his body and carve out his spot on the depth chart. By the time Roebuck is a RS sophomore in 2026 only Gentry and Evan Link from the current OTs will still have eligibility. It depends how his class fills out, but Roebuck has as good a chance as anyone of being the mauling RT after Gentry.

As for the Armstrong twins, I think the industry is used to upgrading guys who get Ohio State offers because Ohio State doesn't usually have to go to their Plan Cs. Ask a Kurelic a year ago who's going to be OSU's first 2024 commit and he'd guess Luke Hamilton, Ben Roebuck, or TE Tayvion Galloway. Those guys have since committed to Michigan, Michigan, and LSU. That doesn't happen to Ohio State.

UPSHOT FOR THE REST OF THE CLASS

Status: 2/3

It's up to 3rd in the country on the 247 team rankings, and up to eight players, nine if you include LB Zach Ludwig, whom we're currently counting as a preferred walk-on until told otherwise. Only Georgia (10 commits) and LSU (11) have more in their classes at the moment, probably because NIL has added another layer to the process. Michigan probably isn't going to finish in the top-3, but they're on track, if they get Jadyn Davis and a slew of 4-stars they're in good shape with, to finish well inside the top-ten. Top-5 is more likely than a class ranked around the one they just signed.

It's also up to four Ohioans, and two of them offensive linemen. Sherrone Moore currently has a lot of irons on the fire, including two from Texas in legacy Blake Frazier (son of Steve) and Max Anderson, who were also up last weekend and left with recruiting reporters preparing Hello post equivalents. Michigan's board is still open at center, for which they're pursuing GA 4* Waltclaire Flynn, MD 4* Kyle Altuner (just visited), and FL 3* Jake Guarnera.

They're also going to keep recruiting some tackles they consider elite, none more than #1 target MO 4* Andrew Sprague. PA 3* Caleb Brewer is another, a Michigan-PSU battle that PSU has led for so long without a commitment that they're starting to get wary. Michigan will also stay on national targets like MA 4.5* Guerby Lambert, TX 4* Michael Uini, who visited a few weeks ago, NC 3* Eagan Boyer, who was also just up here last weekend, and IL 4* Marques Easley, a teammate of Jyaire Hill. And regardless of how that settles, I doubt they're going to let the Armstrong twins slip away to Ohio State without a fight, though the sense now is the Armstrong twins are going to slip away to Ohio State. Other regional targets like PA 4* Kevin Haywood and OH 3* William Satterwhite are probably PSU's to lose unless Ohio State turns to them now.

Best guess is they add Frazier, Anderson, a center, and one name from the preceding paragraph.

THE CLASS AS IT STANDS

OFFENSE
Pos	Player	State	Stars	In a nutshell
RB	Jordan Marshall	OH	4.4⬆	Accelerates South-North
TE	Hogan Hansen	WA	4.1⬆⬆	Colston Loveland West
OG	Luke Hamilton	OH	4.0	Midwestern mauler
OT	Ben Roebuck	OH	3.8⬇⬇	Bigger Midwestern mauler
DEFENSE
Pos	Player	State	Stars	In a nutshell
DT	Ted Hammond	OH	4.0⬆	Cincy build-a-bear
DT	Manuel Beigel	CT	3.6	Lengthy German via Choate
MLB	Mason Curtis	TN	4.2⬆	Long athlete moving up
S	Jacob Oden	MI	4.2	Tall son of coach

Our 2024 recruiting board lives here.