In the aftermath of yesterday's disastrous Men's Basketball loss to Rutgers in the BTT, I decided to pivot to a different winter sport that will actually be making the NCAA Tournament this year, Michigan Women's Basketball. I know we've been scant on the WBB content this year, but that ought to end with the big dance right around the corner and the Wolverines looking to return to the second weekend for the third straight tournament. This piece will not be an in-depth look at the team, for I am not a WBB expert, but rather will be a quick summary of the regular season, who the key players are, the feel of the team, and what to expect when the bracket is unveiled. The goal is this should be a helpful crash course for folks planning to watch the tournament who want to know the basics about the Michigan Women's Basketball team. 

How's the season been?

In two words, pretty good. The Michigan Women's team finishes the regular season/BTT at 22-9 overall and 11-7 in conference play. They finished tied for 5th in the conference standings but the B1G is an excellent conference this year and Michigan is replacing the best player in program history, Naz Hillmon. Acceptable when you consider the context. They started the season rolling over easy non-conference opponents at Crisler before traveling to Estero, FL, over Thanksgiving weekend for the Gulf Coast Showcase, where the team defeated Air Force, USF, and a solid Baylor team in successive days. After that they knocked off Miami in the B1G/ACC challenge, won their first conference game over Northwestern, but then suffered a shocking loss at the hands of Toledo. In fairness to Toledo, they are a very good mid-major team, 27-4 overall and 16-2 in the MAC, playing tomorrow for the conference's autobid to the NCAA Tournament. Still, it was not a good loss, a game Michigan trailed nearly wire-to-wire, finally taking the lead with 1:41 to go only to relinquish it with 20 seconds left in an ultimate three point loss. 

It was the one black mark on an otherwise crisp non-conference, which included another top 25 win over North Carolina twelve days later. The Wolverines beat Nebraska in Lincoln on December 28, with their record sitting at 12-1 at that point and their ranking being #14 in the country. That's when the meat of the B1G slate picked up, starting with a clash in Columbus against #3 Ohio State, which didn't go well. In a theme that we will return to later, Michigan battled non-stop turnover problems and also were ice cold from three, which doomed them 66-57 despite playing good defense and holding OSU well below their season scoring average. 

[David Wilcomes]

The loss to the Buckeyes is the beginning of a broad theme for Kim Barnes Arico's team this season in the B1G, success at swatting aside lesser teams but struggling in the marquee matchups. As January rolled along, the Wolverines handled unranked PSU, Purdue, Rutgers, and Minnesota all by double digits, while going 0fer against ranked teams, with losses to #16 Iowa, #6 Indiana, and #10 Maryland, by an average margin of defeat of 8.7 points. They were dealt a very difficult blow at the end of January against the Gophers when star guard Laila Phelia, one of the three offensive engines and the defensive anchor, was injured and would not play again in the regular season. The team was 17-5 with Phelia healthy, but would trudge through February struggles without her. 

They started off the post-Phelia slate alright, more wins over unranked teams in Illinois, MSU, and Nebraska, though their tussle with the Huskers at Crisler was closer than most of these games (Nebraska was within one score with six minutes to go). Michigan then faced their most daunting game of the season, going to Bloomington to face #2 Indiana with star Mackenzie Holmes. It went about as you'd expect, a blowout by halftime as the Hoosiers took control. Michigan failed to get their revenge on OSU next time out and then another blow was dealt, with star wing/guard Leigha Brown missing the final two games of the regular season with an "internal issue". That led to Michigan losing on the road at Wisconsin, a team that was 6-12 in B1G play, to close out the regular season. 

With the 5th seed in tow, the Women's Basketball team trekked out to Minneapolis, MN, for the Big Ten Tournament. Their first game was against 12th seeded Penn State, Brown and Phelia's return to the lineup. It was not nearly as smooth as some may have hoped, with Michigan committing 20 turnovers against the Nittany Lions' press and the score was tied in the early fourth quarter. A 9-0 Michigan run sustained by excellent defense gave Michigan a seemingly firm lead, one they would almost blow but Makenna Marisa's shot at the buzzer was off the mark and Michigan hung on 62-60. Given one more crack at Ohio State in the semifinals, the two bitter rivals engaged in a back-and-forth affair and Leigha Brown got a jumper on the final possession with a chance to go to OT but it was not to be and the Buckeyes had eliminated Michigan from the event. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Players, playing style, and bracketology]

[David Wilcomes]

Who are the players? 

Let's go through the starters: 

- Leigha Brown: Probably the team's biggest star, the one-time Nebraska transfer has been a fixture of the team for the last three seasons. Brown was named 1st Team All-B1G for her efforts this season, leading the team in scoring at 18.0 PPG. She's a natural wing who has played PG quite a bit this season, a good passer and pull-up jump shooter (more from two than three). Brown facilitates the offense and brings a veteran presence to the floor. 

- Laila Phelia: The sophomore guard was a blue chip recruit out of Cincinnati and flashed in a bench role last season, a half-starter/half-reserve type. This year Phelia has flourished into a much more complete player, adding a lethal three point shot (from 27.8% to 41.5%) to complement her athleticism, which made her the team's best at driving downhill into the paint even last season. Phelia's ability to run the court and push the pace sets her apart from the other starters and the team missed it when she was hurt. Phelia was named 2nd Team All-B1G. 

- Emily Kiser: Joining Brown as a 5th year player, Kiser was a little-used bench piece her first three years behind the likes of bigs Hallie Thome,  Hailey Brown, and even Naz Hillmon herself before moving into a starting role as a senior last season next to Hillmon. At 6'3", Kiser plays the five, averaging 16.2 PPG and 7.1 RPG, doing most of her damage out of the post but she does attempt roughly one three per game, making them at 34.2%. She's played through a broken nose this season and persevered to post the best stat-line of her career, getting far more touches with the absence of Hillmon and earning 1st Team All-B1G. 

[David Wilcomes]

- Maddie Nolan: The senior guard was known for being Just A Shooter with her nickname "Maddie Nylon" hinting at her three-point prowess prior to this season, but Nolan's second season in the starting lineup has seen her minutes increase again. Nolan is now playing 32.4 per game and is doing more than just shooting from the perimeter, driving inside a bit more than last season, even if 72% of her FGAs are still threes. She's taken more threes than ever before this season and it's gotten a bit more complicated without Naz passing out of the paint to an open Nolan, with Maddie's clip falling from 40% last year to 33% this season. On the defensive end, she's known as a pickpocket, leading the team in steals with 47 (1.5/game). 

- Cameron Williams: She's a nominal starter, replacing Naz Hillmon, but Williams only plays 17.6 minutes per game, marginally more than the first piece off the bench. Williams is a junior forward out of Chicago who has been asked to step into the enormous shoes of Hillmon, doing okay on the offensive end but defensive struggles and foul trouble has made Kim Barnes Arico give Williams rotational minutes rather than true starter minutes. 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

And here are the bench pieces: 

- Greta Kampschroeder: The sophomore with one of the most extremely German sounding names of all-time is a transfer in from Oregon State, who was a PAC-12 All-Freshman team honorable mention a year ago. In her first season with the Wolverines, Kampschroeder has become the first player off the bench for Michigan, a true guard who can handle the ball some, allowing KBA to shift Leigha Brown more to the wing. Kampschroeder mostly shoots threes (71% of her FGAs are threes) and isn't making too many of them (29%), but her role and the spacing it provides help explain the minutes she gets. 

- Jordan Hobbs: A sophomore who was a bit player a year ago, Hobbs has developed into being one of the next players up off the bench, even getting starting time during Phelia's injury. At 6'3", she's a big guard who can play the four in KBA's four-guard lineup, also helping spacing by being a credible 3PT threat (34.7%) and Hobbs' energy helps defensively.  

- Chyra Evans: Now we get into a couple freshmen, with Evans being a neat story from Australia. Evans arrived late in the summer and then dealt with an injury that delayed her start to the season, not playing until Thanksgiving and even then she didn't see significant time until December. The program has talked up Evans' composure and basketball IQ, helped by having played in pro/semipro leagues Down Under. She's still a role player off the bench at 10.2 minutes per game and doesn't score much, but 11 blocked shots ranks third on the team for the 6'2" forward. 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

- Alyssa Crockett: Crockett is the other freshman, also a 6'2" forward. She played sizable minutes in the non-conference but then didn't see much time for a couple months before re-emerging and giving the team good minutes in mid-February when Phelia was out. 7 points in 15 minutes against Nebraska was a highlight, but don't expect much from Crockett right now. 

- Ari Wiggins: Another player who got much more time when Phelia went down was sophomore guard Ari Wiggins, the smallest (5'8") but arguably fastest player in the rotation. Wiggins was seldom used in the first three months of the season but then played 10-20 minutes per night in February as a true PG. Her speed and defensive ability was needed to replicate some of what Phelia brought to the squad, but now that the star is back, I wouldn't anticipate seeing Wiggins too much in the NCAAs. 

- Elise Stuck: Though Stuck only averages 9.6 minutes per game, she has appeared in every Michigan game unlike Evans, Crockett, or Wiggins. The in-stater from Charlevoix is a 6'1" wing and a significant piece of the rotation, actually playing 19 and 22 minutes against PSU and OSU in the BTT, respectively. Her hustle and energy defines the game but a 5/5 shooting performance gave her a season high 11 points (she does most all of her scoring inside the arc) against PSU, and it may have been the difference in avoiding a first-round upset. 

[Paul Sherman]

What is the feel of the team? 

As you may have gotten a hint at during the players section, this Michigan Women's Basketball team revolves around three primary scorers, Brown, Phelia, and Kiser. They are the pillars that support the offense and then Nolan is your floor-spacing complementary shooter/scorer. Those four players each average ~32+ minutes per game, leaving ~68 minutes to be split between all the remaining options. Cameron Williams starts out there, but comes off pretty often in favor of the likes of Kampschroeder and Hobbs, who provide added versatility. A combination of Stuck, Evans, and Crockett fill in for some amount of time depending on game state and situation. 

Looking at the statistical side of things, Michigan currently sits at 74.6 PPG, good for 36th in the NCAA. They allow 63.5 points per game against, 159th, with a scoring margin of 11.2 PPG, 38th in the NCAA. The team vowed to take more three pointers and become better at shooting them this year, and some success has been had on that front, with the team's percentage sitting at 33.8%, an uptick from 30.6% a year ago. The improvements in shooting by Phelia, Kiser, and Hobbs have played a sizable role here, compared to last season when Nolan was the only viable perimeter threat. That 33.8% clip ranks 75th and their shooting clip from the field (46.8%) is elite at 14th in the country. 

The reason for the gap between points per game and their shooting clip is the turnover bug. At 16.2 turnovers per game, they rank 213th in the NCAA (bad!). They committed 27 turnovers twice against OSU this season (though they fixed the problem the third time) and have committed 20+ turnovers in nine of 31 games. Michigan has struggled mightily against the full court press, something deconstructed in this film review piece by the Michigan Daily that I'd recommend if you want something more in depth. The turnover problem has resulted in there being a pretty clear book on how to slow down the Michigan attack. They do a good job forcing turnovers on defense, 17.9 per game (68th in the NCAA), but they are in the bottom half in FG% against (206th) and right near the bottom in 3PT% against (33.9%, 320th). 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Bracketology? 

Michigan needed to beat OSU and go deeper in Minneapolis in order to move up to a top four seed and get the right to host games at Crisler for the second straight year. If we look at current women's basketball bracketology projections, Michigan is hovering in the 6-7 range seed-wise and that's the expectation to take into the selection show. ESPN's Charlie Creme has Michigan as a 6 seed with 3 seed Notre Dame in games that would be take place in South Bend. College Sports Madness has Michigan as a 7 with 2 LSU in Baton Rouge, while RealTimeRPI has Michigan as an 8 with 1 UCONN in Storrs. To state the obvious, Michigan would greatly prefer to be a 6 vs. 7-8 because the chance of winning in the second round goes up dramatically. The gap between the elite and the next tier is still wide in WBB and with this Michigan team who has struggled against 1-2 seed level teams (0-7 against ranked B1G opponents), you want to be in the 3/6 matchup to feel like your chance of making it to the second weekend is plausible. 

The B1G is a good conference this year. Those same brackets have Indiana as a 1 seed, Iowa as a 2 seed, Maryland on the 2/3 fringe, and Ohio State on the 3-5 fringe. This is a legit conference and Michigan's struggles against those teams is a sign of where they're at as a program, but not a total condemnation since those are some of the best teams in college basketball. I don't think anyone expected Michigan to be on that level in the first year post-Naz. Making the tournament again and winning a game or two keeps the momentum going, especially when the best recruit in program history is on the horizon in 2024 (Olivia Olson). From that perspective, it can be a successful season if the team can perform respectably in the big dance.