Fresh off another sweep, this time of Michigan State, the Michigan Hockey team has officially caught fire. They've won seven in a row, eight of nine, and nine of eleven dating back to the end of the first half. They've shot up the B1G standings and the PairWise rankings and continue to deal with injuries in the process. With just two weeks to go in the regular season, today we're talking about the feisty series that just happened against the Spartans, magic numbers for B1G Tournament seeding, and the NCAA Tournament picture 

The MSU Series That Was 

A lot to talk about this weekend, so we'll go through some storylines grouped together: 

- About the brouhaha on Friday: That Friday night game was a bit of an event. First of all, thanks to everyone who tuned into our livestream, it seemed like most people enjoyed it? If we do more of these (and I think we will), we will advertise it better and also make sure they are carried on the MGoBlogLive YouTube channel we use for MGoRadio and not my personal YouTube channel. It turned out to be a good game to do a livestream for because the game was not short on excitement with the puck or with fisticuffs. 

The Friday night game was a good example of how not to referee a hockey game, and the refereeing crew for Saturday very much corrected the problems there were on Friday. It's a rivalry game, two teams who don't like each other, each are trying to make their presence felt in the opening game of the series. You always have to be on alert refereeing a game like this, and then you take into account a Michigan State team with a heavy forecheck presence that puts much more pressure on the opponent than they once did. Those hits on the offensive zone boards are what starts to get the physicality in a game going and it was the case on Friday. 

The first period was when two teams are getting acquainted with each other physically. Then the second period saw the scrapping begin, here and there after the whistle, that sort of thing. A push, a cross-check, some jawing. As the minutes rolled along, each provocation and subsequent minor scrap grew slightly more significant. Eventually, those watching on the livestream may recall me, several times, complaining that the referees were not putting enough players in the box. They didn't crack the whip hard enough on those minor scraps and eventually when you've got players getting under each other's skin and pressing each other's buttons with no punishment or cool down time, it's going to explode: 

The Michigan-Michigan State hockey game is absolutely wild pic.twitter.com/jkcKsJxPGD

— Alejandro Zúñiga (@ByAZuniga) February 11, 2023

First and foremost, Adam Fantilli totally deserved to be ejected. He erupted, lost his cool, the whole thing. Blind-side crosscheck with no hockey intention and then throws punches. Under NCAA rules, that is an ejection. If I'm an NHL coach, I love to see the passion from my star, especially in a regular season game. But these are NCAA rules, the regular season means far more in the NCAA, and given the situation in the game, Fantilli needs to be smarter. Michigan was holding a 3-1 lead in a critical game on the road with an injury-shortened roster. This is a teaching opportunity for Brandon Naurato with Fantilli, because there are going to be more players like Jagger Joshua and Nash Nienhuis the rest of the season. Fantilli, as Michigan's best player, can't be succumbing to it in a postseason game, so this is his chance to learn now. 

The Saturday game was refereed far better. They were quick to put guys in the box, were doling out penalties left and right, and nothing got out of hand. I'm not sure exactly what happened for Joshua to get the 10 minute misconduct he got in the third, but that was an example of the referees with a zero tolerance policy after what happened the night before. No plays toeing the line, no sandpaper hits meant to stir the pot up, everything was going straight to the box. Absolutely the correct way to do it and hopefully the referees for this weekend's game are taking notes because OSU is another team that likes to throw its weight around and has a few rats of their own.   

[AFTER THE JUMP: More thoughts]

[Rena Laverty/USNTDP]

- Frank Nazar is back: Obviously the weekend's biggest storyline was getting Frank Nazar back from season-long injury and though he's still getting back up to speed from that long of an injury and also adjusting to playing his first NCAA games, we got a glimpse into what he's going to be able to do for Michigan Hockey going forward. Coming into this season, Nazar was marketed as an electric playmaker, a great skater dripping with skill, questions about his size but no one doubting he could shoot and pass. I had him ranked very highly on my 2022 NHL Draft board and feel that a fully healthy Nazar would be Michigan's second best forward without question. He's got that potential to be a game-changing player. It's probably not coming until next season now that injuries have set him back, but he can still be a top notch playmaker quickly and we saw glimpses of it this weekend. 

He got an odd-man rush situation in both the Friday and Saturday games, making a great between-the-legs pass to Jackson Hallum on Friday that is an extraordinarily Frank Nazar play, but Hallum tried to do too much with it instead of firing it by St. Cyr. Then on Saturday, he got a 3-on-1 and decided to take it himself: 

Frank Nazar III unassisted goal, his first as a Wolverine! pic.twitter.com/XzVOn9VBjx

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) February 12, 2023

I'm always a proponent of shooting over passing on odd-man rushes, and Nazar is a player with a very good shot. His hands and the stuff he's going to do with them will remind you of Thomas Bordeleau, but his shot is closer to Beniers. Here he blends the hands and shot, a slight move with the puck that shows it to the goaltender suggesting pass before pulling it back and ripping it through the exposed holes. So smooth. Nazar is going to present a massive threat off the rush, will be a boost to the PP, and if he can drive a line right away at the NCAA level (which will simply be about health; if he's anywhere close to normal Nazar, the answer is absolutely yes), it could give Michigan three scoring lines, taking the team from it's current level to a higher gear. Exciting stuff! 

[Grace Beal]

- What is Erik Portillo's whole deal?: This has been one of the most puzzling goaltending years I can ever remember from a player at any level. After being as good as any goalie in the NCAA during the back half of last season and being a central figure in Michigan's B1G Tournament title and run to the Frozen Four, Portillo has had an extremely bumpy season. I wrote about his struggles in the first half and was pining for a stronger second half. Five weeks in, I'd say it's been... mostly the same? This isn't all on Portillo, there have been issues with defense, but here are the goals against totals for the second half of the season: 7, 2, 4, 4, 3, 4, 2, 4, 2, 3. Michigan has played firewagon games, has an absurd amount of scoring if Nazar gets going, I understand all that. But it does feel like to win a national title they will have to win at least one tournament game that is lower scoring. Someone will frustrate them, bog them down, and they'll need Portillo to step up, as he did against QPac and Denver last year. Can he?

I don't really know. In most all areas of the game, Portillo has seemingly regressed as a junior. His puckhandling has been better in my opinion, but otherwise he's had strange battles with puck tracking, movement/composure in the crease, and most of all, catching the damn puck. He let in the tying goal on Saturday while looking at the other side of the ice, with no apparent knowledge of where the puck was at all until it was in his net. He let in the second goal on Friday while diving around the crease like a gymnast in the Olympics, before getting stuck on the far side of the crease. And week after week there are ~5-10 shots per game that come straight at him, either hitting his chest, pads, or glove, that he does not catch properly and freeze. 

I said it on the show on Friday, but we talk a lot about defense not making things fair on the goalie. In this case, Portillo has not made things fair on the Michigan defense. Defenseman are not prepared to defend cycle plays for 15-30 seconds longer than normal because the goalie is incapable of catching and freezing the puck. Watch one Michigan game and notice how many times mad scrambles ensue in front of the net where suddenly it's a five alarm fire because a looping shot on net wasn't caught and is laying in front of the net for anyone to get. That puts immense stress on the defense and it isn't fair to them.

I don't know why a steady goaltender suddenly became a Jenga tower teetering on a seesaw, but it seems increasingly unlikely that it will be fixed this year. I don't know if Portillo is coming back for Year #4 (if he doesn't want to sign in Buffalo, might as well. If Buffalo trades him, maybe he's gone), but it feels like an offseason project at this point. The results, .909 SV%, are alright, but the eye test and the technical side of things are rough. This Michigan team may end up not needing that much from its goalie to win big, but right now Portillo is giving them juuuuuuuust enough. 

[Bill Rapai]

Two weeks to go in the B1G Chase

It's been a few weeks since the last Hockey Weekly, so let's check in on the updated B1G chase: 

There's a pretty clear hierarchy in the B1G now, Minnesota at the top, then Michigan/OSU/PSU, then MSU/ND, then Wisconsin. The top four are all in the NCAA Tournament comfortably, the next two are on the bubble, and Wisconsin is waiting to fire their coach. Minnesota needs one point this weekend against PSU in Hockey Valley to lock up the B1G regular season crown, which seems very likely. Wisconsin is locked into the seven spot in the conference, leaving the middle five to fight for seeding as we count down the final two weeks. 

Michigan State and Notre Dame are tied at 31 points with just two games to play. Of those, MSU seems to be in far better position than the Irish, with two games against Wisconsin, whereas Notre Dame has two with Michigan. Of course, MSU is on the road against Wisconsin, where the Badgers have managed to go 4-6 against the B1G this season, but obviously you'd rather be Sparty. MSU also owns the tiebreak against Notre Dame, so it feels like they have inside positioning to finish ahead of ND, who looks likely to be in sixth. 

Among the cluster of Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State, Michigan has the clear path to be #2, and I think PSU is more likely to get #3 than OSU. Both the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions play Minnesota, but PSU gets 'em at home while OSU is on the road for those, and OSU's other opponent is Michigan while PSU's is Wisconsin (also at home). The easiest guess is PSU goes 3-1 to close, finishing with 39 points, while OSU goes 2-2 or worse. There is a scenario where OSU goes 1-3 to finish, MSU sweeps Wisconsin, and the Spartans jump the Bucks to finish 4th in the conference and get home ice in round one. That's why this weekend is so big for Ohio State. 

As for Michigan, the math is much more tidy, with a four and five point cushion on the two teams chasing them while all the teams in discussion have played twenty conference games. Here are the magic numbers of points needed for Michigan to eliminate the following teams from finishing above them in the conference standings (remember: magic number = points gained by Michigan OR points dropped by team in question): 

• MSU - 2 
• Notre Dame - 3
• PSU - 7 
• OSU - 8 

Michigan can do significant damage this weekend given that they are playing Ohio State. A win on Thursday in regulation, for example, chops 6 points off the OSU magic number, and eliminates MSU/ND from the equation, locking up home ice for the first round at least. It also knocks PSU's number down to four. And let's say the Lions split with Minnesota (reasonable). Well then all the sudden Michigan's magic number is down to one on them. If we just assume that M/OSU and Minn/PSU both split this weekend, Michigan will go into the final weekend with a top four finish locked up, and in search of two points to eliminate OSU from the equation and one point to eliminate PSU. In other words, they'd need one win, regulation or OT, against ND at Yost the final weekend to get it done.

Not a cakewalk, but highly likely. If they were to sweep OSU this weekend, then all the sudden a lone point dropped by PSU against Minnesota could get it done. It's a long way of saying that a strong weekend in Ohio and a little bit of help from the Gophers could clinch this weekend and if not, merely a split puts Michigan in great position to get it done at home against the Irish. The #2 seed remains a massive prize, what amounts to a virtual bye round one playing Wisconsin, while the other two opening series will be bruising battles, and then you get home ice for round two, not having to go on the road until possibly Minnesota for the title game. Get it done, boys. 

A return trip to Allentown coming soon? [David Wilcomes]

NCAA Tournament Picture 

Since I last did a Hockey Weekly, a lot has changed. Michigan is now up to the one line, 3rd in PairWise, and if they can close the season strong, hanging on to a one seed is feasible. Making the jump up to #2 or #1 is not terribly likely, barring a massive collapse from Minnesota or Quinnipiac, but jostling with Denver, BU, and PSU to stay a one seed will be the discussion over the final month before Selection Sunday. In other news, Michigan's weekend of victories over MSU have more or less locked them in to the tournament, even if they somehow lost out, and The Daily's Connor Earegood mapped out some scenarios over the final four games of the regular season: 

Big Ten Tournament games will undoubtedly change this up a bit, but here's a matrix projecting Pairwise rankings for @umichhockey's remaining schedule. The Wolverines need at least three wins to lock down a 1-seed. They will be a 2-seed if they win at least one game. pic.twitter.com/o8q9J2f4o5

— Connor Earegood (@ConnorEaregood) February 13, 2023

In all likelihood, Michigan is going to be finishing this season in the top ten for the third straight season, which has now become the program standard since Mel Pearson came in and got recruiting back on track after the late Red years. The big question now is where in that top ten Michigan will be, where will they be playing, and who are their opponents. Most likely, the Wolverines will be a 1 or 2 seed, probably in that 3-7 range, probably avoiding Minnesota or QPac in your regional.

Also, the possibility of seeing PSU again is very real. The Nittany Lions are the hosts of the Allentown Regional and thus have to play there if they are in the field (they are almost a lock to be). If Michigan is on the one line, Allentown seems like a pretty likely destination again. Minnesota will be off to Fargo, QPac staying near home in Bridgeport, leaving Allentown and Manchester, NH, as the other destinations. When BU was on the one line, it seemed obvious to say Michigan --> Allentown and BU --> Manchester. Now that Denver holds the 4 spot down, it's not as obvious, but Michigan is ahead of them in the seeding priority, so for now, it still seems like Allentown. And if it is, the Lions will be there too. 

I don't hate that scenario overall. Michigan took 8/12 points from PSU this season and it should've been 9/12. I feel comfortable putting my neck on the line and saying Michigan is a better team, and a lot of PSU's scariness to me comes from their home rink. I don't fear playing them at a neutral site at all, even if plenty of PSU fans will travel to Allentown. In the three seed range, you'd probably be looking at Cornell, Harvard, or Michigan Tech, none of whom scare me all that much, while the four seed would (right now) be Minnesota State or Northeastern, of which I'd much rather take the Mavericks. Huskies goalie Devon Levi is someone I'd much like to avoid, if possible. 

This picture will shuffle quite a bit as we go down the stretch. Michigan hasn't lost in a while, but the next one may well drop them down to the two line. But then the next win after that may jump them back up. It's going to be a pendulum and there's always the chance WMU or St. Cloud will make a hard charge too if they get hot. Michigan has some cushion, but not a ton. Motivation to finish the season strong.