THE ESSENTIALS

THE OVERVIEW

NITQuest 2023 got a boost yesterday as Michigan put the spurs to Northwestern, a team that looks a lot shinier in record than performance. The Wildcat are 15-7 even after the loss, but are 58th on Kenpom. The next opponent flips that script. Chris Holtmann's Buckeyes have gone into a month-long tailspin to sit at 3-8 in conference play but still rank 32nd.

The Buckeyes started off reasonably well, with neutral court wins over Cincinnati and Texas Tech offsetting noncon losses to SDSU, Duke, and UNC—the latter in OT. They also squeaked by Rutgers by one at home in their November nonconference game. A blasting of Northwestern set them up at 10-3 and looking towards big things. Since they've lost eight of nine, and while there are some understandable Ls in there (Purdue by 2, at Rutgers in OT) OSU has also lost to Minnesota and Nebraska in that stretch. Woof.

To be fair to Holtmann, this is almost entirely a new team. The only player who played at all last year is Zed Key.

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

Alas, the brick for Williams, who has dipped under 30% from three.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

Sueing has started most of the year but Likekele started and went 33 minutes in the last game.

THE THEM

Freshman Brice Sensabaugh is the star. He has greatly outperformed recruiting expectations, going from the #65 composite guy last year to a guy putting up 36% of OSU's shots(!) while maintaining a 120 ORTG. That drops a bit in Big Ten play, but just to 115. He's an all league guy. If not for Edey and OSU's record you could make a case for him as MVP.

Sensabaugh does most of his work inside the line but in league play he's shooting an even 50/50. Yes: 25/50 from three in Big Ten play, and 48% overall. His work inside the line is good given his volume, but what makes him deadly is the elite deep shooting. Almost all of this is assisted, so, yes, you have a shot to keep these attempts down.

The rest of Sensabaugh's game is a lot of driving and doing impressive things not quite at the rim. He's a burlywing so he's not going to slash to the bucket a ton but he gets a lot of attempts in the short midrange on backdowns and post-ups along with drives that don't quite get there and then he's got an impressive array of runners, floaters, and jumpers that combine to see him hit 48% on his other twos. The floor of a Sensabaugh possession is super high. His TO Rate is acceptable given his giant usage, and while he doesn't get to the line much he's 81% while there.

Given all that, Sensabaugh's minutes leap off the page: just 59%. This is due to three things, two freshman-related. One: he did not start the first eight games of the year and was a 20 MPG bench player. Two: he's committing 4.9 fouls per 40 in Big Ten play. He fouled out against Maryland in 30 minutes, Nebraska in 24, and Wisconsin in 16. His minutes were also limited by four fouls against Minnesota. The third: Holtmann just pulls him for worse players a lot? Nobody on this roster should be keeping him on the bench but he did not reach 30 regulation minutes in his last seven games, and foul trouble was only a factor in two or three.

Between the fouls and the minutes it seems likely Sensabaugh is a hideously bad defender. Either that or Holtmann's lost his mind.

Zed Key stepped into the starting center job with the departure of EJ Liddell and has delivered more or less exactly what you'd expect him to. Key is a below-the-rim 6'8" guy with a bunch of post moves and not a lot of range, so he's obliterated the lesser lights on the schedule but has been pretty mediocre against higher level competition. He's shooting 60% from two, which drops to 51% in Big Ten play. He's just never going to be a particularly efficient scorer with his size and athleticism combo.

Key does maintain a few good traits against tougher comp. His OREB rate remains around 12%, which isn't Zach Edey territory but is excellent for a mortal man. His TO rate is 14 in Big Ten play, excellent for a high usage guy posting up a bunch, and he gets to the line frequently. He's not a rim protector and you'd hope Dickinson is able to bully him on the block. OSU will likely send doubles, though, and Michigan has done a poor job of exploiting those.

Freshman point Bruce Thornton has acquired the new Not Just A Shooter (But Probably Should Be) designation in the chart above because he's knockdown from outside (39%, with a third of those off the bounce) and things get dodgy as soon as anything else happens. He is a point guard with a TO rate significantly higher than his assist rate and he's hitting just 29% from two in league play. (He's at 26% from three, as well, but because that's 31 attempts and he's 36% in KP100 games I tend to favor the larger sample size for shots that are a lot less variable than twos.)

The best you can say for Thornton is that if he's getting up a two, nobody is helping him get that shot up.  But also three-quarters of his twos are off the dribble jumpers he hits at 33%.

WVU transfer Sean McNeil is Old Transfer Thornton, more or less. He's a couple inches taller but he's another guard, sorta, who is efficient behind the line (39%) and never ever gets to the rim when he ventures inside. Both guys are low usage; both guys are allergic to free throw attempts; both guys do very little to fill up the box score. McNeil is more of a shooting guard than Thornton, with a negligible assist rate and a few assisted twos; he's also more reliable in the midrange at 44%.

OSU has started Oklahoma State transfer Isaac Likekele in four of their last six, including a 33-minute outing in their loss to Wisconsin yesterday. Likekele is a 6'5" point who was a four-year starter for Not That OSU; he's a defensive ace with giant holes in his game otherwise. He is emphatically a non-shooter, with a career 27% clip from three and a career 61% free-throw percentage. Both of those numbers have gotten worse over the course of his career, with Likekele's FT% enduring a jarringly steady decline from 66% his first two years to 57%, 54%, and now 44%. Half of his shots are other twos on which he hits 19%. Not a typo.

He's also got a TO rate of 19, which is a career best by three points. He does rack up rebounds, steals and blocks without committing too many fouls, and I assume his presence is largely to staunch the bleeding created when you put two freshmen in the starting lineup with Zed Key protecting the rim. 100% chance they stick him on Howard.

Because of that swap, Justice Sueing got bumped to the bench recently but he's really starter #6; he's played 70% of OSU minutes. We will address him in more detail than a bullet can handle so here he is. Sueing is a slashing wing with extremely dodgy efficiency; he's shooting 47/29 in Big Ten play and that three point number is in line with career averages. The two point shooting is a major dip, which may be the result of a serious injury that kept him out almost all of last year. Sueing's also seen his rebounding and FT rates drop; all told he's lost 16 points of ORTG from his healthy 2021 conference season; despite this his usage has gone up because the team around him just needs someone to do something.

The bench:

• Freshman Felix Okpara backs up at the five. He's taller than Key at 6'11" but just 220. He fits in the rangy, raw rim protector archetype. His block rate is just a hair short of 10% and he's a solid offensive rebounder but he's limited to dunks and putbacks. He's just 4/15 away from the rim this year and ~all of his makes at the basket are assists/putbacks.
• Freshman Roddy Gayle and senior Tanner Holden both get about 10 MPG and spend most of their time inside the arc, when not trying to stay out of the way.

THE TEMPO FREE

I'm not sure what to choose here, because the overall and conference numbers tell radically different stories. I guess conference, because that's more relevant given the tailspin:

That is the ninth-best offense in the Big Ten… and the 14th-best offense in the country. Their effective FG percentage drops four points because they're dead last in Big Ten play at making twos. They're 28th nationally and second in league play at making threes… and they are second to last in actually getting them up, because they play either two or three non-shooters at all times and no one's bothering to double the post.

Also they're 348th in assist rate. There is a lot of Will Wade ball being played right now in both Columbus in Ann Arbor. Freshman point guards: yuck.

Defensively, this is a foul-heavy team and one that gets beat on the glass because of a lack of size. Their drill-down components are uniformly mediocre; they range from fifth to eighth in everything. They do give up a lot of threes.

THE KEYS

Sensabaugh foul trouble. If Michigan can get after Sensabaugh OSU's win profile gets real thin real quick. Since Sensabaugh is probably going to be covering Terrance Williams this will require Michigan to force switches onto guys like Howard and Bufkin, if OSU is willing to do that. If not, screening a bunch with Williams could give Michigan some nicer looking offense than they've had of late.

[Campredon]

Dickinson versus doubles. Michigan has not had productive outings when Dickinson gets doubled until their most recent game, when Dickinson only had two assists but the team had 21 on 24 buckets. Notably, Dickinson slowed it down. Against a team with little size he had the time to draw guys to him and then fake passes and hit guys, forcing rotations and getting Michigan into spots where Northwestern had to help and guys were open for Dickinson hockey assists. Most of the time this is going to be true against OSU, as Dickinson will have a half foot on everyone else on the floor.

Don't leave shooters. Force it inside the line. Michigan's biggest key to victory is limiting OSU 3PAs. They are the worst team in the league at twos. They are 2nd in threes. Run them off the line. If you are helping because Likekele or Sensabaugh is backing someone down know who you are helping off of.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 1.