Previously: Podcast 10.0A. Podcast 10.0B. Podcast 10.0C. The Story. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End And Friends. Offensive Tackle. Interior Offensive Line. Defensive Tackle. Defensive End. Linebacker. Cornerback. Safety. Special Teams. Questions: Offense. Questions: Defense.
The theory of turnover margin: it is pretty random. Teams that find themselves at one end or the other at the end of the year are likely to rebound towards the average. So teams towards the top will tend to be overrated and vice versa. Nonrandom factors to evaluate: quarterback experience, quarterback pressure applied and received, and odd running backs like Mike Hart who just don't fumble.
|Year||Margin||Int +||Fumb +||Sacks +||Int -||Fumb -||Sacks -|
|2007||0.15 (41st)||14||15||2.46(33rd)||14||13||2.17 (67th)|
|2008||-.83 (104th)||9||11||2.42(33rd)||12||18||1.83 (57th)|
|2009||-1.00 (115th)||11||5||1.83(68th)||15||13||2.33 (83rd)|
|2011||+0.54 (25th)||9||20||2.31 (29th)||16||6||1.38 (33rd)|
|2012||-0.69 (99th)||7||11||1.69 (69th)||19||8||1.38 (28th)|
|2013||+0.38(33rd)||17||9||1.9 (64th)||13||8||2.77 (109th)|
|2014||-1.33 (124th)||5||5||2.4 (49th)||18||8||2.2 (63rd)|
|2015||-0.31 (92nd)||10||2||2.5 (32nd)||10||6||1.4 (28th)|
|2016||+0.54 (24th)||13||6||3.54(5th)||7||5||1.69 (39th)|
|2016||-0.31 (90th)||10||7||3.23(8th)||10||11||2.77 (111th)|
Michigan again struggled to acquire turnovers despite a dominant defense. Whether that's something Don Brown's system is causing or just bad luck is in the eye of the beholder. You could make a case that zone-heavy teams are more likely to get interceptions, and Michigan is not at all a zone-heavy team.
Turnovers lost really could have been worse, but if you look at fumble luck and PD:INT ratios it seems like Michigan once again got boned by Lady Luck. Per S&P+ Michigan's "expected turnover margin" was +5.2 and should have been 25th; instead it was –4 and 90th.
Seems like the same level of defensive havoc and a necessary improvement in pass protection and general sanity level at QB would reinforce the expected turnover numbers, leading one to project a large improvement in this department. But I'm wise to you, universe. Michigan's turnover margin will remain inexplicably bad.
[After the JUMP: position switches are minimal]
Theory of position switches: if you are starting or considering starting a guy who was playing somewhere else a year ago, that position is in trouble. There are degrees of this. When Notre Dame moved Travis Thomas, a useful backup at tailback, to linebacker and then declared him a starter, there was no way that could end well. Wisconsin's flip of LB Travis Beckum to tight end was less ominous because Wisconsin had a solid linebacking corps and Beckum hadn't established himself on that side of the ball.
The dossier of position switches is thinner than it's ever been.
Tackle switcharoo. This ends up with Jon Runyan Jr at left tackle and JBB at the same spot he was last year. While there's a ton of concern for tackle in general, the position switching aspects are minimally concerning.
Ruiz to center. Zero concern, he was born to center.
Some enbeefening DL changes. Kwity Paye is backing up both DE spots and is headed towards anchor. Carlo Kemp and Donovan Jeter are DTs. None of these people are slated to start.
An Embarrassing Prediction, No Doubt
Worst Case Barring Extreme Injury Scenarios
Uh, that's a bear of a schedule right there. The general bloody-mindedness of the universe being an established fact, another 8-4 regular season would be a Fun Time Had By All. 8-4.
It's not reasonable to expect Michigan to run the table against so many potential pitfalls, especially with an offense that might get shut off entirely by the Bosas of the world. 11-1
This looks like a 10-2 kind of year in which the identities of the 2 radically change perceptions of what actually got accomplished.
|9/1||@ Notre Dame||Tossup|
|9/22||@ Nebraska||Must win|
|9/29||Northwestern||Lean to win|
|10/6||@ Maryland||Must win|
|11/3||Penn State||Lean to win|
|11/10||@ Rutgers||Must win|
|11/24||@ Ohio State||Lean to loss|
Iowa, Illinois, Purdue, Minnesota
9-3 looks more likely than 11-1 by some distance.