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Fantasy MLB: 2006 Draft Guide

Tags: fantasy expect
Source: Yahoo! Sports

Catcher

The future is at the top of the chart. After years of domination by Mike Piazza, Ivan Rodriguez and Javy Lopez, two youngsters appear to be the best picks.

1. Victor Martinez, Indians, .305-73-20-80-0

Just 27 years old, Martinez has shown in two full seasons that he can and will produce. He's a switch-hitter who knows how to make contact and has a little pop, and keep in mind that last year was his best year even though his RBI total decreased by 28. Just wait until he puts it all together.

Prediction: .310-80-24-97-0

2. Joe Mauer, Twins, .294-61-9-55-13

A huge prospect with a terrific swing, Mauer has already shown he can hit for average and run a little (key for a catcher in fantasy ball). It may be a year or two early to expect big power numbers from the kid, who will be 23 in April, but expect an increase. Also a good sign for fantasy owners: Mauer passed on the World Baseball Classic, saying he didn't want to tire himself out before the season.

Prediction: .305-71-17-77-10

3. Ivan Rodriguez, Tigers, .276-71-14-50-7

Talk about fickle: One year removed from .334 average, and many fantasy players are discounting the All-Star catcher. At 34, he still has plenty of game left. Expect a slight rebound, even if he hasn't hit 20 homers in any of his last four seasons. New manager Jim Leyland said he expects Pudge to be a leader on the field this year.

Prediction: .305-73-15-72-6

4. Jason Varitek, Red Sox, .281-70-22-70-2

Varitek is a consistent offensive threat, having posted similar numbers each of the last three years. There's no reason to expect much of a change. Got off to a very fast start in '05, and then faded. Playing in the WBC this year.

Prediction: .285-70-21-74-3

5. Kenji Johjima, Mariners (played in Japan)

Will the Japanese sensation be more like Hideki Matsui or Kaz Matsui? All signs point to Hideki. Kenji is a bona fide power hitter who averaged 30 home runs from 2001-05, and hit .326 last year. He's already a clubhouse favorite, having taken his teammates out to dinner each night in Arizona.

Prediction: .305-64-16-65-3

6. Jorge Posada, Yankees, .262-67-19-71-1

Posada had five-straight 20-homer seasons before dipping to 19 last year. Manager Joe Torre thinks the downturn in production was related to trade rumors that followed Posada around last year. Fantasy owners hope the Yankees stop talking trade and let Posada get back to hitting with authority.

Prediction: .255-67-22-74-1

7. Michael Barrett, Cubs, .276-48-16-61-0

After two solid years with the Cubs, Barrett has established himself as an above-average offensive catcher. Now the team has signed him for three more years, giving him the confidence to know he'll be around for a while. Wrigley seems to agree with Barrett.

Prediction: .270-55-18-70-0

8. Ramon Hernandez, Orioles, .290-36-12-58-1

He's more talented than this ranking would suggest, but curious signings (the Orioles had greater needs than at catcher, and probably overpaid) rarely turn out well. That said, the team did get a terrific team player -- and winner -- in Hernandez.

Prediction: .287-47-14-60-2

9. Rod Barajas, Rangers, .254-53-21-60-0

Once considered a backup, a defensive specialist and not much of a hitter, Barajas has become a power guy who could easily lead all catchers in home runs. He did slightly better at being selective at the plate in '05, and his numbers improved. He could continue that ascent.

Prediction: .260-58-18-70-0

10. Bengie Molina, Blue Jays, .295-45-15-69-0

Sure he's slow, and he's a sure bet for time on the DL. But Bengie has a sweet swing and always produces when he's out there. He's also plenty sore at his old team, the Angels. He'll work hard to show they made a mistake in letting him go.

Prediction: .285-40-16-65-0

11. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox, .257-61-18-56-0

Last year, Pierzynski swung for the fences more (career-high 18 homers) and got on base less (career-low .257 average). This year, expect him to revert to his more typical output.

Prediction: .284-59-11-68-0

12. Yadier Molina, Cardinals, .252-36-8-49-2

Sleeper alert. His numbers in his first full season weren't outstanding, but keep in mind that he was slowed by an injury and has the talent to improve. He hit .330 with runners in scoring position as a rookie. If he keeps that up in this lineup, could drive in bunches of runs.

Prediction: .285-52-12-65-3


First Base

It's imperative for fantasy player to get good power production from corner infielders. There are plenty to choose from, and remember that unless you're planning to make up for it elsewhere, a first baseman who hits 15 home runs is less valuable than a catcher who hits five.

1. Albert Pujols, Cardinals, .330-129-41-117-16

If you have the chance, pick him first overall. Pujols has been baseball's finest all-around hitter the last three years, also his first three years in the league. He's just 26, and while he may not get better, staying at this level way for a while will make him a sure bet for the Hall of Fame.

Prediction: .326-122-45-128-11

2. Mark Teixeira, Rangers, .301-112-43-144-4

Teixeira was a star at Georgia Tech and a star when he sped through the minor leagues in just one year. In the majors, he's been an All-Star whose numbers have improved each year. Last year he matured into one of baseball's elite power hitters. What will he do for an encore?

Prediction: .318-120-49-148-2

3. Derrek Lee, Cubs, .335-120-46-107-15

Ranked third after a season like Lee had in '05? It says more about the players ahead of him than anything else. Lee may not hit .335 again, but he is a legitimate five-category threat, and he's not going anywhere.

Prediction: .301-118-40-108-12

4. Todd Helton, Rockies, .320-92-20-79-3

Last year was a disappointment, but he appears to be healthy again after struggling with a bad back for much of the last two seasons. When he's right, Helton is one of the few players in baseball who could even consider flirting with .400. Maybe not that high, but expect a nice rebound. His supporting cast is maturing, so he should drive in more runs.

Prediction: .348-117-30-105-3

5. Adam Dunn, Reds, .247-107-40-101-4

Dunn is not a newbie anymore. The 26-year-old outfielder-turned first baseman has had five seasons to work out the kinks, and in that time, he has yet to finish a season with an average higher than .266. He also struck out 168 times last year, and that was 27 fewer than the year before. No matter. Dunn is an all-or-nothing guy and makes no apologies for it. He also gets all enough to make up for the nothing.

Prediction: .261-110-48-115-5

6. Lance Berkman, Astros, .293-76-24-82-4

Berkman had a huge second half, hitting .298 with 18 home runs after a slow start. Now that he's healthy, expect Berkman to re-emerge as an elite hitter. One slight warning: Berkman is coming off knee surgery, although he said he feels great and is not expected to miss any time. A move to first will help put less strain on him.

Prediction: .300-98-38-120-5

7. Richie Sexson, Mariners, .263-99-39-121-1

He's a bomber, pure and simple. Sexson won't hit .300, he won't steal you any bases, but he'll knock the ball out of the park -- a lot. Leading the AL in home runs is not out of the question if things click this year in Seattle.

Prediction: .255-102-46-125-0

8. Paul Konerko, White Sox, .283-98-40-100-0

If Jim Thome arrives in Chicago and approaches what he did a few years back, this will be quite a middle of the White Sox lineup. It wasn't too shabby last year, and Konerko is the heart of it. He's among baseball's most reliable power bats.

Prediction: .275-94-38-97-0

9. Ryan Howard, Phillies, .288-52-22-63-0

No one doubts the NL Rookie of the Year can hit, but be careful prorating numbers from half a season over a whole season. It rarely works that way, and Howard needs to improve his hitting against lefties (.148) before we anoint him the new Albert Pujols. Expect a good year, just not an MVP season quite yet.

Prediction: .271-78-32-90-0

10. Carlos Delgado, Mets, .301-81-33-115-0

A move to New York could be a blessing (Cliff Floyd) or a fantasy disaster (Carlos Beltran) for Delgado, who is seeking his 10th consecutive 30-homer season. He'll be 34 in June, and while he's not noticeably on the decline, few are expecting a return to 40-homer form.

Prediction: 290-78-28-88-0

11. Adam LaRoche, Braves, .259-53-20-78-0

LaRoche has raw power potential and a year-and-a-half of major league experience now. It could be time for him to take the next step. He struggled against left-handed pitching (.188, 1 HR) in '05 and now has no platoon partner. The extra at-bats could be a good thing, or a bad thing.

Prediction: .263-82-31-90-0

12. Nick Johnson, Nationals, .289-66-15-74-3

The 27-year-old is coming off another injury-plagued season, and people are beginning to wonder if Johnson will ever fulfill his great promise. He's hardly a safe pick, but Johnson has the talent to take a big step forward if he can stay healthy.

Prediction: .300-76-24-90-6


Second Base

There was a time when a second baseman with 10 home runs was news. Not anymore. A power surge is developing among a young crop at the position, and the development of exciting players such as Rickie Weeks and Jorge Cantu has added several strong middle infield options. This may also be the year that Chase Utley surpasses Alfonso Soriano as the best bet.

1. Chase Utley, Phillies, .291-93-28-105-16

Has gotten better each year, but how much better can he get after an outstanding '05? He's got even greater potential, because his numbers will naturally improve when he learns to hit better against lefties (.219).

Prediction: .305-104-33-118-15

2. Alfonso Soriano, Nationals, .268-102-36-104-30

If ever a player appeared to be destined for an off-year, this is it. Soriano is moving to a much less hitter-friendly park, and has already publicly groused about a possible shift to the outfield. Still, an off-year for Soriano is still pretty hot stuff. Take him early, just not too early.

Prediction: .260-71-24-76-23

3. Jeff Kent, Dodgers, .289-100-29-105-6

At some point, Kent has to show his age. At 38, however, he still looks like a good pick to be the Dodgers' best power bat. Keep an eye on how he recovers from wrist surgery in January. His goal is to take it easy during the spring and be ready for opening day.

Prediction: .285-84-23-91-5

4. Tadahito Iguchi, White Sox, .278-74-15-71-15

Had a successful stint as a 30-year-old rookie after eight years in Japan. Now that he's familiar with AL pitching, expect Iguchi to take the next step. He has the power to hit twice as many home runs as he did. Manager Ozzie Guillen expects to move Iguchi to the sixth or seventh hole after batting him second last year. That should mean more power, less steals.

Prediction: .282-88-20-84-12

5. Rickie Weeks, Brewers, .237-56-13-42-15

Weeks wasn't spectacular as a rookie, but he showed flashes, especially early, before a thumb injury. He's not fully recovered from offseason surgery, but the team expects he'll be fine by opening day. With his talent, he could be an Alfonso Soriano clone, down to the shaky defensive play. Keep in mind that Soriano hit just 18 home runs in his first full season.

Prediction: .270-90-22-68-26

6. Marcus Giles, Braves, .291-104-15-63-16

In a field with so many young, talented players striving to reach their potential, here's one second baseman who is a known quantity. Giles can hit for average and power, and is penciled in as the Braves' new leadoff guy, so expect a few more stolen bases so long as he stays healthy. He's a five-category fantasy player.

Prediction: .290-115-17-70-20

7. Jorge Cantu, Devil Rays, .286-73-28-117-1

Most people expect more from Cantu, but given how much he surpassed expectations in his first year, a slight regression is only to be expected. Nobody doubts that Cantu has a seriously live bat. Cantu drove in 21.1 percent of the runners on base when he batted, leading the majors in that category.

Prediction: .266-55-21-77-0

8. Ryan Freel, Reds, .271-69-4-21-36

If he can stay out of trouble (Freel has twice been arrested on alcohol-related charges) Freel is a terrific leadoff hitter for the Reds and a good cheap option for stolen bases. He can play second base, third base, or any of the outfield positions. After talking to new first base coach Billy Hatcher, Freel said his goal was 60 stolen bases this year. We'll see.

Prediction: .260-67-4-28-35

9. Ray Durham, Giants, .290-67-12-62-6

Durham was once a premier fantasy second baseman, but those years have long since passed. Hampered by groin injuries in '05, Durham swiped just six bases. He might steal a few more this season, but don't expect a return to 20-to-30 steal form. Manager Felipe Alou is considering batting Durham fifth again this year.

Prediction: .285-82-16-70-10

10. Luis Gonzalez, Rockies, .292-51-9-44-3

Will get his first opportunity to start in '06, and provided he can hold off Jamey Carroll, will get plenty of at-bats. He's already proven in his first two big league seasons that he can produce when given the chance. If he learns to pull the ball a little more, with 500 at-bats Gonzalez could do some damage at Coors Field.

Prediction: .300-73-15-61-5

11. Robinson Cano, Yankees, .297-78-14-62-1

Cano was just what the aging Yankees needed last year, a young sparkplug at second base who can get on base in the No. 2 or 9 hole. Cano can do a little bit of everything; he has some power, an ability to hit to all fields and a penchant for striking out. If he can cut down on the Ks, he could really break loose. Has better speed than the one SB demonstrates.

Prediction: .284-90-12-50-6

12. Brian Roberts, Orioles, .314-92-18-73-27

Yes, Roberts had a career year. He'd never hit more than five home runs combined at any level, and somehow launched 18; his batting average rose from .273 the prior year. What will he do in '06, coming off elbow surgery? He may miss the start of the season, for one thing. Buyer beware.

Prediction: .278-64-6-41-25



Shortstop

The disparity between the best and worst fantasy shortstops is probably greater than at any other position. It's very important to grab one of the top 10 shortstops, because the drop-off is significant with the second 10, and even more pronounced for the bottom 10.

1. Miguel Tejada, Orioles, .304-89-26-98-5

Despite an unhappy offseason, despite coming off a slightly down year, he's still the best fantasy shortstop simply because he's the only one who is likely to hit 30 home runs. He's also extremely durable, having played in 918 consecutive games. Even if he's traded during the season, Tejada should land on his feet.

Prediction: .284-97-32-110-5

2. Jose Reyes, Mets, .273-99-7-58-60

It could be a year too early to predict this sort of dominance from Reyes, but the 22-year-old has already shown the speed and flash, the ability to hit major league pitching consistently. It's just a matter of allowing his surprising power to blossom. Stole 36 bases in the second half last year, and will benefit from new spring training instructor Rickey Henderson.

Prediction: .288-110-10-66-75

3. Michael Young, Rangers, .331-114-24-91-5

Led the AL is batting last season, and this was no fluke. Young has quietly put together three straight .300 seasons, and each year has increased his home run total. He ran less last season, but if he continues to improve could catch Tejada as the best-hitting shortstop in the league.

Prediction: .320-112-25-100-10

4. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies, .290-115-12-54-41

Rollins is just beginning to put it all together, going into his sixth full season. His .290 average was a career high, and judging by the 36-game hitting streak with which he ended the season, he could improve on that. Rollins has a little pop, a lot of speed. In short, he has it all.

Prediction: .309-119-15-66-40

5. Derek Jeter, Yankees, .309-122-19-70-14

Could it really be, Derek Jeter just the fifth-best shortstop in fantasy baseball? It's less a reflection on him than proof that a position that was once the weakest in baseball has changed. At 31, Jeter is in his prime and will be a multidimensional threat in baseball's best lineup. You can't go wrong picking Jeter.

Prediction: .315-122-20-85-14

6. Felipe Lopez, Reds, .291-97-23-85-15

He's coming off a breakout season, and the question is whether Lopez can duplicate his excellent power numbers. No one doubts he'll hit for a high average and steal bases. Reds fans love this guy, who could be the second coming of Barry Larkin.

Prediction: .300-99-18-78-23

7. Rafael Furcal, Dodgers, .284-100-12-58-46

How will Furcal handle the change of scenery? Don't expect it to make a huge difference for this fine shortstop, who has consistently shown a little power and a whole lot of speed the last four years.

Prediction: .277-93-9-48-39

8. Jhonny Peralta, Indians, .292-82-24-78-0

It all came together in a hurry last year for Peralta, a guy who projected to be a good gap hitter with only a little power. After hitting 24 home runs, people are comparing him to a young Miguel Tejada. No doubt the Indians have of the premier power-hitting shortstops in the game, and he's only 23. He should continue to develop as a hitter.

Prediction: .280-90-26-84-0

9. Bobby Crosby, Athletics, .276-66-9-38-0

Crosby was well on his way to a good follow-up season to his Rookie of the Year campaign when injuries caught up with him. He showed in limited time last year that he can improve on his rookie average (.239). This may be the year where he puts the average and the power together.

Prediction: .280-89-23-84-1

10. Clint Barmes, Rockies, .289-55-10-46-6

Oh, that zany Barmes. For a little over a month the nation was caught up with the excitement of the overachieving shortstop, and then ... well, we'll put away the jokes about carrying deer carcasses up the stairs if he'll promise not to do that again. Barmes has the ability and drive to be an excellent offensive shortstop.

Prediction: .303-17-78-10

11. Orlando Cabrera, Angels, .257-70-8-57-21

After years of being a slightly overrated fantasy shortstop, Cabrera may now qualify as a bit of a sleeper. The reason: After hitting just eight home runs in '05, some people may have forgotten that he has better power than that. He'll never hit for average with that long swing, but he'll run and hit some balls over the fence. You could do far worse at SS.

Prediction: .255-75-15-65-20

12. Julio Lugo, Devil Rays, .295-89-6-57-39

Yes, he had a career season and stole many more bases than he had previously, but before we start getting all excited, realize this is Julio Lugo. He's always been a pretty good offensive player, just not an elite one. If he doesn't steal 39 bases again, he's just an average-hitting shortstop.

Prediction: .287-77-8-54-20


Note: Other positions will be posted tomorrow, please come back.


This post first appeared on Fantasy Baseball - MLB Trades And Rumors, please read the originial post: here

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