The official betting preview of pro gamblers for Tampa Bay vs. Atlanta from Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy.Â
- 3 Thursday night sides:Â NFL and 2 CFB
- Friday CFB totalÂ
- Saturday:Â CFB Total of the Year among 4 Wise Guys, plus 8 Majors.Â
- Named play among 8 Sunday NFL, 3 are Wise Guy bets! We added early morning London winner.
Joe Duffy’s Picks at OffshoreInsiders.com
Tampa-Atlanta (-1.5,44)
Opened: Atlanta -3, 44
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75% of bets, 86% of money on Tampa
80% of bets, 75% of handle on OVERÂ
Free winning bet:
Tampa-Atlanta UNDER 44
Medium range total, both teams off a win, one as a favorite one as a dog, both off a cover, goes under 62-33-4. As we will admit, this traded system is somewhat backfitted and less dominant the last three years, not a premium play. However, one of the top sharps, one who is having a good season again, has this bet.Â
Systems:
Thursday favorites after week 4 under specific situations that apply in this game are 129-73-3 (Atlanta)
Tampa just second road game, but they are 1-0, while Atlanta is 1-2 at home SU. Anti-splits angle about fading road teams with a significantly better road winning percentage than home team’s home winning percentage is 116-68-8 (Atlanta)
First half of the season underdogs off less than a TD are 234-148-7 under specific situations that apply in this game (Tampa)
Go against home teams in a short week if they averaged less than 45.8 yards per punt in the last series meeting is 24-6 (Tampa)
Go against conference teams off a high-scoring home game if not with extreme rest is 612-483-27 (Atlanta)
Since 2024 first or only series meeting with a total of 44 or less goes UNDER 481-362-17 includind113-81-3 if divisional (UNDER)
Primetime games under 78-49-1 last 3 seasons (8-7 this year)
- Public loves overs, so books need unders says it’s not coincidentalÂ
Trends
Tampa 9-1 ATS road, Atlanta 0-3 ATS home this year and 3-10 favorites last 2 years
Curt Cousins 8-3 primetime, Baker Mayfield 3-8, but Atlanta 3-9 under the lightsÂ
Cousins under 9-1 last 10, Mayfield under 13-2 in primetimeÂ
Tampa 10-3 as dogs last 2 years, including 8-1 road underdogsÂ
Ron Tolbert is the head ref and unders 43-26 with him
Notes:
Tampa with the third highest blitz rate in the NFL this season but Cousins most TDs against the blitz since 2018 at 68
Atlanta without C Drew Dalman, starting LB Troy Anderson
Tampa without S Antoine Winfield; #3 and #4 WRs Jalen McMillan and Trey PalmerÂ
Prop bets
Cade Otton (TB) over 28.5 receiving yards
Integrated more into offense and Tampa’s WR depth thinned, so safety valve, especially in a short week, where tougher to throw in more wrinkles. New OC Liam Coen has Mayfield throwing quicker and shorter passesÂ
Rachaad White (TB) OVER 9.5 carriesÂ
He is averaging 10.3 this season and is bigger than teammate Bucky Irving, so on a short week, should get a 60-40 or better split on carries
Power ratings:
Massey: Tampa 23-20 (TB ATS and money)
OddsTrader: Atlanta 22-19 (lean UNDER)
Sportsline: Atlanta 24-23
BetQL: Atlanta 23-21
StatSharp: 22-22 tie
Action: Atlanta -2, 44
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