It’s Thursday Night Football as Tampa Bay Buccaneers undertake the Carolina Panthers. Carolina is -7 (-105) at Bovada live NFL lines with a total of 49 and moneyline of -320 with a +260 on the road team. Lines of -6.5 but higher juice are also accessible. The odds debuted at -6.5 and 51 but juiced to the under at Betonline.
In a rare status, the percentages of bets equal the proportions of money stakes as 83 percent of the public using each criterion favors Carolina. Fifty-nine percent of wagers are on the under, while the money is equally split on the total. Each team is 0-1 SU and ATS with Tampa going under their opening game and Carolina exceeding the total.
When two winless teams clash, the underdog covers at an imposing 91-69-5 ratio, with the winning percentage slightly finer on the road. Most profitable betting systems and formulas would fit under the umbrella of “counterintuitive.” A good example is a totals angle that applies in this situation. Carolina is off game 57 points scored, Tampa following one 48. At least the arithmetic would imply a total higher than 50 should be posted here.
However, we have an angle based on overreaction that applies and goes UNDER 1428-1186-55. This is an example of using betting formulas to use oddsmakers knowledge against them.
Underdogs a week after allowing two defensive touchdowns are 40-23 ATS, favoring Tampa. The logic is straightforward. Defensive scores are somewhat good fortune and are challenging to duplicate, helping isolate deceptive final scores. Tampa head coach Bruce Arians came out of retirement with the number one goal to turn around the career of inconsistent underachiever Jameis Winston. The Tampa QB’s problems seem to be more a result of his ability to make proper life decisions and little to do with football-related issues.
Carolina signal Cam Newton changed his mechanics and could be a work in progress as he adjusts to a new throwing motion. Panthers star TE Greg Olsen is questionable. The often-injured start played only 16 games last two years with 44 catches. He did tell NFL.com that he intends to play Thursday. Long-time veteran LB Bruce Irvin has been ruled out for Carolina.
For Tampa, five-year veteran DE Rakeem Nunez-Roches is probable after leaving the Niners game after 14 snaps thanks to a thumb-injury. Buccaneers LB Devin White was slowed down in game 1 with an illness, though he still managed six tackles. He is back to full health. Weather will not be a factor.
Top expert pick on today’s card is from NFL Thursday, two college football Friday led by a Wise Guy! Ten college football Saturday led by three Wise Guys at OffshoreInsiders.com.
Against the spread trends: Carolina is 2-7 overall going back to last season, 1-6 on grass. The underdog is 5-1 in the series, the road team 7-3.
Over-under trends: Tampa has gone over 13-3-1 on the road. Carolina under 19-9 at home versus an opponent with a losing road record.