After a week off, we are back with a Fight laden UFC Vegas 37 card. We have 15 fights, which is quite a change from the 9, 10 and 11 fight Fight Night cards that we have become somewhat accustomed to. The Anthony Smith vs Ryan Spann main event does bring some name recognition on the Smith side. Beyond Smith, the card does not bring top end names to be excited about, but that does not mean the card is lacking. The volume of fights combined with mostly solid matchmaking will make it great from a viewing perspective.

We will also have no shortage of Betting plays from the top to the bottom of the card. There will be five betting plays in total, but the main event will not be one of them. I wanted to touch a bit on that fight before diving into the betting plays.

Smith vs Spann Main Event Betting Preview

Ryan Spann is put in the spotlight for the first time in his UFC career. He is a difficult fighter to predict at this portion of his career, as we have seen him come out and look great in some fights, and a little underwhelming in others. One thing that cannot be understated is that he has finishing ability early in fights. He has knockout power but also has shown crafty front choke submission ability. The early portion of the fight is where Anthony Smith will need to be quite mindful, as it will be when he is in danger. In terms of striking, Smith is the better more technical striker, if not the more explosive and dangerous one. The true ferocity from Spann will come early in the fight so the opening to take over the later rounds will absolutely be there for Smith. Smith is also the better grappler and has the better cardio, so it would be a shock if the later rounds did not belong to him. The key will be making it to those later rounds. Spann has the feel of an early finish or bust fighter in this matchup. Given the -175 betting line on Smith, oddsmakers and gamblers have this line in a perfect spot, and it is a spot to avoid for wagering purposes.

Now, let’s get to the betting picks.

Ion Cutleaba -145 vs Devin Clark

Fight is at 205 lbs and is -190 to end inside the distance.

While this is not the most prolific co-main event we will ever see, it will be an entertaining one. Ion Cutelaba fights always are. Cutelaba’s style of throwing caution to the wind and hunting for a finish will always be well received by fans and UFC management alike, and that will not change any time soon. Cutelaba does not hesitate to come out and seek a knockout early. He throws as heavily as he can possibly can and leaves no regard for preserving his gas tank.

Devin Clark, like his opponent, has had mixed results in his UFC tenure. Even though there are similar results, the approach is not at all the same. Clark is not an explosive striker and has had to rely on durability and his wrestling to notch the wins he has gotten. The problem lies in the frequency in which the durability has failed him. All five of his UFC losses have come by way of finish and all five have come in the first two rounds. There are a couple reasons this continues to happen. The first is his striking is subpar if we are comparing Clark to essentially any other fighter clawing to enter their way into the rankings. Opponents can land and land heavy, and Clark is not a fighter with an excessive amount of chin. The other reason is Clark often relies on his wrestling, but makes real mistakes in terms of submission defense. While the latter is not the biggest worry for him in this fight, the former truly is. He is also not a heavy-handed striker, so he does not necessarily earn respect from his opponents in the stand up portion of his fights.

As mentioned, I believe we will see Cutelaba come out straight away and hurt Clark with his striking. Clark may reactively try to wrestle, but Cutelaba has a wrestling background as well, and Clark will have no success as long as the Cutelaba gas tank isn’t wiped. Clark will be hunting for survival early on, and I do not believe he finds it. I think there is a reason Clark draws another opponent with real finishing ability early on, and the promotion wants to see if he can counteract it. I suspect like me, the promotion is not expecting him to be able to so. Even though there is minimal value in pivoting from the flat line of -145 to the +105 ITD line of Cutelaba, it is essentially the only real path to victory, and the one we will take.

Betting Pick: Cutelaba ITD +105

Ariane Lipski -115 vs Mandy Bohm

Fight is at 125 lbs and is +150 to end inside the distance.

Ariane Lipski has alternated pairs of wins and losses to start her UFC career. After a pair of losses, she notched a pair of wins against lesser competition, and then another pair of losses when the competition ramped back up. Now we see her get the step back down against debutant Mandy Bohm. Lipski’s Achilles Heel of late has been her takedown defense failing and being unable to return to her feet. This was against a higher level of competition, she still has taken the necessary steps to correct it. She has begun training at American Top Team, a great gym to help her correct the holes in her game. Her striking and top game have always been solid, but now she is trying to become a complete fighter. With the step down in competition, she is poised to get back on track.

Mandy Bohm makes her promotional debut at 32 years old and entering the most difficult fight of her career. She has no notable wins on the regional scene and is inexperienced considering her age. Like Lipski, she prefers striking to grappling. Her wrestling is not at the level that has given Lipski problems in the past and I believe Bohm is getting far too much credit on the betting line. In fact, I believe Bohm is in more danger of being taken down than Lipski is in this fight. Both women have a stronger top game than bottom, but I believe Bohm to be a level below her opponent in all aspects of MMA. While Lipski will at least hunt submissions from her back, Bohm does very little besides accept position.

In totality, the step up in competition will be too much for Bohm. Lipski has the power advantage in the stand up and will be putting more damage on her opponent. Lipski is more experienced and as shocking as this might sound, has the grappling edge in this fight as well. Lipski will be the pressuring fighter and will keep all avenues available to her while neutralizing her opponent. The value is on the Lipski side and she will be our betting pick.

Betting Pick: Lipski -115

Tony Gravely -190 vs Nate Maness

Fight is at 135 lbs and is +120 to end inside the distance.

This fight will play out as a striker vs grappler matchup, and the grappler will be Tony Gravely. The physical wrestler will have his way with the wrestling in this matchup. Gravely is the more dangerous fighter in all aspects, while I believe his opponent to be more of a points based striker and not a high output fighter nor a real finisher. If there were to be a finish in the standup, it would be a true shock if it weren’t Gravely on the good side of it. Gravely seeks the finish if striking, but that simply leads to the takedowns. He’s completed at least three takedowns in all four of his UFC fights and that trend will absolutely continue in this fight.

Nate Maness is a tall bantamweight that tries to use straight shots to his advantage. I don’t see a power aspect to his game that will differentiate him in the UFC, so we are likely to see a good deal of decisions if and when his wins come. He is not helpless on the mat by any means but is simply at such a wrestling disadvantage in this fight that he will certainly be grounded multiple times. He will likely be able to find his way back to his feet before being mat returned a few times. His BJJ is not at the level where Gravely will be in submission trouble, so the control time will be the differentiating factor in the fight. Maness also does not strike with enough volume to steal rounds from the work Gravely will do on the floor.

We simply have a betting line not reflecting the round winning ability and finishing ability that Gravely has over his opponent. -190 is quite a value in a fight that will not be the most exciting of the night and will be one sided.

Betting Pick: Gravely -190

Erin Blanchfield -320 vs Sarah Alpar

Fight is at 135 lbs and is +125 to end inside the distance.

We get the debut of very real prospect Erin Blanchfield. The 22 year old squares off with wholly underwhelming Sarah Alpar in an extremely favorable stylistic matchup. Both women prefer grappling over striking, and we will see no shortage of grappling in this fight. If for some reason we saw extended periods of striking, Blanchfield would have an edge, but a bet on Blanchfield is certainly not due to her striking. Her BJJ game is superior to that of Alpar. Even if Alpar lands a takedown, Blanchfield will still dictate where the fight takes place, and will be able to sweep or return to her feet. When Blanchfield gets a takedown, it will be an entirely different story. She will be able to effortlessly control and work towards a finish without risking positions. In a grappler vs grappler matchup, the betting line is wide, but does not accurately reflect the difference in these fighters.

If you’ve followed my work for any amount of time, you know I am extremely hesitant to play this wide of a betting line on the favored side. That said, I was expecting roughly -600 for this line and was shocked and pleasantly surprised to find the insane amount of relative value. I have very little reservation in laying the required -320 on Blanchfield, and she will be our play.

Betting Pick: Blanchfield -320

Emily Whitmire -125 vs Hannah Goldy

Fight is at 125 lbs and is +200 to end inside the distance.

Emily Whitmire is a three year UFC vet with four fights under her belt, going 2-2 in that time. That said, the losses have come against legitimate BJJ black belts in Amanda Ribas and Polyana Viana, Whitmire is simply wildly more effective when she is the superior grappler. Even going back to her time on the Ultimate Fighter, her losses came to Gillian Robertson and Roxanne Modafferi. Whitmire has been in there with some of the best grapplers the UFC has to offer. Her current opponent, Hannah Goldy certainly does not fall under that umbrella. Whitmire will not have a striking advantage in this fight, but she will be the superior grappler and better wrestler. Goldy will have a shot at defending the takedowns of Whitmire, but if she doesn’t Whitmire will have a massive edge on the floor and will be able to control and hunt submissions.

Goldy has been very underwhelming in the octagon thus far. She is a striker and has some bright spots to her game, but does not have the look of a complete or dominant fighter, once looking past her extremely impressive physique. Her lead head kick flicks up very fast and she does have success with it, but there appears to be very little power behind it. Her opponents have simply been unaffected by her strikes. If Goldy is able to keep the fight standing, she is in a good spot to earn a decision and her first UFC win, but it is unlikely she is able to accomplish that feat.

Whitmire is not a helpless striker, and will be competitive enough on the feet, but has the most identifiable path to victory in this fight through her grappling game. Take Whitmire to dictate where the fight takes place and to get it to where she has all the advantages.

Betting Pick: Whitmire -125

Other Fight Predictions

Anthony Smith via decision over Ryan Spann

Arman Tsarukyan via decision over Christos Giagos

Tafon Nchukwi via KO over Mike Rodriguez

Antonio Arroyo via KO over Joaquin Buckley

Raquel Pennington via decision over Pannie Kianzad

Rongzhu via KO over Brandon Jenkins

Nikolas Motta via KO over Cameron VanCamp

Montel Jackson via KO over JP Buys

Impa Kasanganay via decision over Carlston Harris

Gustavo Lopez via KO over Heili Alatang

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