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FOMC previews from 15 major banks

Credit Agricole Research: We expect the FOMC to announce the start of Balance Sheet tapering in October, in line with the parameters already released and that should come as of little surprise to market participants.

Even if the dots fail to shift lower - which could be interpreted as a hawkish signal - the market may discount this guidance beyond year-end given the significant re-shaping of Fed leadership expected in coming months.

The plan to normalise the Balance sheet has been communicated well in advance and since initial caps reducing reinvestments in principal will be small, the launch is unlikely to cause volatility in financial markets.

Morgan Stanley Research: We think the markets are largely pricing in the Fed starting to reduce their balance sheet so the impact on long term rates and the USD should be limited.

Watching EM sovereign and corporate spreads is critical in the days ahead but if there really is a muted reaction, surely (sounding like a broken record here) the dollar gets a lift as a Dec hike comes into sight....long USD/JPY our chosen tactical poison.

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FOMC previews from 15 major banks


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