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Betting with Ellis Starr - July 30, 2016

Key Bets and Races for Saturday, July 30

Amsterdam Stakes - Race #4 at Saratoga – Approximate Post Time 2:41 PM ET

Mind Your Biscuits added blinkers for his most recent Race, on July 4, and the result was a smashing nine length win. Rosario rides back, moving off Ready Dancer, who he just rode to a three length win, which is a big sign of confidence on the part of the jockey and his top agent, Ron Anderson. The colt gets a great outside post and shows a local workout so all signs are GO for posting the mild upset in this race. Its All Relevant adds to our profit potential opening at 12/1. He too ran huge when blinkers were added for the first time, one race before last, and John Velazquez gets on after not having ridden him since January when aboard for an easy eight length win. The colt ran poorly last out but drops from older to just three year olds and he deserves a lot of respect particularly since his connections paid a supplementary entry fee to get him into the race. King Kranz won the non-graded Gold Fever Stakes when last seen on May 6. That race was in the mud and if he can run as well on a dry track he may win again.

Bet Mind Your Biscuits to win at 2 to 1 or more, a TRUE KEY BET on the day. Make a smaller win, or win and place bet, on Its All Relevant at odds of 4 to 1 or more.

Play an Exacta Box Consisting of Mind Your Biscuits, Its All Relevant and King Kranz.

Vanderbilt Stakes - Race #9 at Saratoga – Approximate Post Time 5:40 PM ET

Chublicious, Catalina Red and Delta Bluesman all hail from the very high percentage barn of Jorge Navarro, who has won with 35% of his starters this year and who has won eight graded stakes in 2015 and 2016. Of the trio, Chublicious opens at the highest odds, 12/1, which are out of line with his probability to win considering he has run the two best races of his career in his two most recent races, both stakes wins at this six furlong distance. His two workouts since the wins demonstrate he's holding top form and jockey Gallardo accompanies him from trainer's base at Monmouth. With his stablemate Delta Bluesman likely to sizzle on the early lead, Chublicious may get a made-to-order pace to set up his late kick and win again. Catalina Red and Delta Bluesman are both grade 2 stakes winners this year and can't be counted out as contender for a second, nor can Westchester Stakes winner Anchor Down or Belmont Sprint Stakeswinner A.P. Indian, all who should be used on Daily Double tickets listed below.

Bet Chublicious to win at odds of 3/1 or higher. Consider a second win bet, on Catalina Red at 3 to 1 or higher.

Play Doubles from race 9 to race 10 as follows:

Ticket 1:

Anchor Down, Catalina Red, Delta Bluesman, A.P. Indian, Holy Boss and Chublicious with Governor Malibu

Ticket 2:

Chublicious with ALL SIX horses in race 10

Jim Dandy Stakes - Race #10 at Saratoga – Approximate Post Time 6:18 PM ET

If there was a dictionary definition of "Horrible Trip," then Governor Malibu would be the example. In the Belmont Stakes he got blocked, checked and caught in tight quarters not once, not twice but three times by eventual winner Creator's stablemate Gettysburg (otherwise known as 'He who shall not be named'). Rosario made a couple of mistakes in anticipating what Gettysburg was going to do and suffered for it. Today, Rosario will not make the same mistake, and since Governor Malibu was second before that in the Peter Pan Stakes at this distance and a winner of the Tesio Stakes at this trip before that, he's got all the credentials to win here for our profit, opening at 9 to 2. Destin was incredibly game in the Belmont, opening up late before being run down by Creator on the wire. He wasn't ready for the classic distance of the Derby after a two month layoff but this nine furlong trip should be right up his alley. Creator can't be discounted although as a deep closer in fields of 12 and 13 in his two biggest wins this year he will have to be a lot closer to the pace to win. I'm taking a stand against Mohaymen, off since the Derby so giving away a good deal of recency to the rest and having run two poor races in a row.

Bet Governor Malibu to win at odds of 2 to 1 or higher.

Race #9 at Del Mar – Approximate Post Time 9:10 PM ET (6:10 Pacific Time)

Bronzino is a KEY bet on the day, as both his U.S. turf races were good, first a 3rd place finish in March following 5 months off, beaten a neck for 2nd, and better still his last effort, on 6/19, when 3rd in a race he had no shot it. He was behind a stopping horse at the 1/4 pole, had no room at the 8th pole, and when the jockey let him run he accelerated from 8th to 3rd to make up nearly 3 lengths in no time. He gets a HUGE jockey change to Prat who just needs to get him into the open in the stretch and let him go. Woody's Folly finished well from 7th to 2nd at 7 furlongs on dirt last out after 2 months off and won on the Del Mar turf last fall with a nice off the pace move, so with logical 2nd off the layoff improvement should be in the thick of the action. Royalist finished well for 2nd to similar on the grass when last seen in mid-May under Bejarano, who rides back from the rail and his debut win last February (2015) was strong as he rallied from 6th to get up by a head at a mile first out, no easy task at all. Broken Up won last November around two turns on turf at Golden Gate in straight maiden company then ran badly this winter and sprint at the level BUT when in his first start off the trainer change in June he rallied nicely for 2nd sprinting on turf then ran poorly on dirt. Because that last effort looks bad on paper he may go to post at a price and as I expect him to perk up back on grass he rounds out a quartet to help us profit on exacta wagers.

Bet Bronzino to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

Play an exacta box consisting of Bronzino, Woody's Folly, Royalist and Broken Up.

You can get more selections and analysis from Ellis at Equibase.com.


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Betting with Ellis Starr - July 30, 2016

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