The indexes are off about .6% 30 min before the open. TLT is +1% @CL is -.20% and vix.x is +9%. This is a negative premarket.
After the hammer on Monday, it would be nice to get some follow-through, but so far it looks like the chances of that are slim today.
I have a number of swing positions on at the moment, and I imagine if we get a drop today I will be out of many. These are tough markets to trade right now as the ups and downs tend to wiggle you out of trades. But still, in the end stops are the only way to go.
Except of course for mean reversion. I closed out my 2 SPY positions on Friday for a nice gain. These have been by far the strongest of my trades this year. The only caveat is with mean reversion you take a big loss once in a while. It comes with the territory:)
On the political front its the normally manufactured hysteria. Some things to look at through the mist are 1. The Fed and 2. the amended Nafta agreement.
Powell is behind the curve. Why I have no idea. I am not much on conspiracy theories, but needless to say, he is overlooking the geopolitical turmoil. Rate cuts should be dramatic right now. Instead, he is still in cautious mode:(
The Nafta agreement is purely political. I see little to no chance of it getting through the house. Even though it is a great agreement for the U.S. the House is not going to give Trump a win heading into 2020. My guess is they will add a poison pill to the bill that will kill it.
On the geopolitical front, the world is a mess. Yellow vest protests are growing in France, Hong Kong is now in on the act raising the American Flag. This is not going to end well for Hong Kong. China will be brutal in quashing this.
Trade with China is not close to being settled, and N. Korea is starting to act out again. A lot going on geopolitically. And all is potentially market-moving.
I posted my NFL and College Football special on the main portion of this site and also sent out an email to people that have expressed interest in the past. The response has been the best since I started some 16 years ago.
While many Handicapping services come and go, at 10x the price of my subscription, mine has stayed solid over the years producing positive EV plays consistently.
If you have ever sat at the poker table with me you know that I am a pretty conservative gambler:) I pretty much play a % game with a few twists. But overall it is a positive EV play. That is the way I approach Sports Handicapping and the markets.
If you have an interest take a look at the post and send me an email if you have any questions.
As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.
If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.
Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
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