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Yield curve inversion, recession odds, and gun control. My thoughts

Positive news out of the White House regarding China this morning and we find ourselves +1% on the indexes an hour before the open. Ross announced a 90 delay on Huawei blacklist and talks resume in September.

Now if the Fed were to get in lockstep with the White House off we go to new highs:)

@CL +.5% TLT -1.56% and vix.x -4.66%. This is a positive premarket open. The only thing keeping it from a trend day up is the vix.x. Its a bit high for a big move to the upside right now. But everything else looks fine.

I have been trading these markets with mixed results. The one thing that has been consistently profitable have been my mean reversion trades in SPY. I exited a SPY trade on Friday for almost a 2% gain in 3 days:) I also added a few swing trades on Friday which look ready to take off this morning.

I had a good friend call me up at the end of last week worrying the U.S. was heading into a recession. I asked him where he was getting that idea and he sent me an article from a local news outlet:)

First, it was Russia, then Obstruction, next racism, then white supremacy. And now its recession. These are all themes designed to take down the White House. I have little doubt there is a political group that gives marching orders to the media as to what to push and when to push it. So now we are on Trump’s recession.

After that fails, it will be something else, each as ridiculous and the next. I sent him a link so that he could monitor recession odds. If your an investor this site is free and essential reading every Sunday.

https://www.dashofinsight.com/weighing-the-week-ahead-is-the-yield-curve-inversion-on-the-jackson-hole-agenda/

Read this and you will get an accurate assessment of where the U.S. is at in terms of a recession. The conclusion is very low:)

On the Political Front, the bad news is Congress will be back in session soon. No doubt the House will start triggering the crazies again and it will be business as usual.

Last week I discussed that the House was never going to pass the new NAFTA agreement. During their off time, House leadership have been meeting with Trudeau and essentially killing the deal. Mexico has already given the OK. But Canada is working with the Dems, and this bill is not going to pass.

The House is not going to give Trump any kind of win heading into 2020. That is what politics has turned into in the U.S. Has nothing to do with the American people but to win no matter what the cost (to others).

Then we will have the push for gun control coming soon. My guess is it goes nowhere. Maybe a token background check bill. Which as far as I am concerned the 2nd Amendment should not be touched. Guns are not the problem, its the people using them. Until that is accepted, nothing will change.

Hard-working law-abiding Americans, have weapons in their homes for self-defense. This is not a republican or democrat issue, as gun owners cross every political spectrum, nationality, sexual preference, and religion. The only appetite for taking away guns is from the politicians using the issue as a tool, and the people that do not know any better.

The solution is simple: 1. tone down the rhetoric (and not from the white house) 2. Start enforcing the existing laws 3. get rid of sanctuary cities 4. immigration reform 5. protect our southern border 6. get back to providing mental health as a priority and finally, 7. interstate concealed carry.

You do that and you will be on your way to solving the problem. The odds of that happening, however, is 0. The odds of gun control solving the problem is 0. So expect more shootings, get mentally prepared for it, as our politicians refuse to address the problem.

On the geopolitical front not much has changed from last week.

I posted my NFL and College Football special on the main portion of this site and also sent out an email to people that have expressed interest in the past. The response has been the best since I started some 16 years ago.

While many handicapping services come and go, at 10x the price of my subscription, mine has stayed solid over the years producing positive EV plays consistently.

If you have ever sat at the poker table with me you know that I am a pretty conservative gambler:) I pretty much play a % game with a few twists. But overall it is a positive EV play. That is the way I approach sports handicapping and the markets.

If you have an interest take a look at the post and send me an email if you have any questions.

As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.

If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free

Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

The post Yield curve inversion, recession odds, and gun control. My thoughts appeared first on Rickj's Handicapping Picks.



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