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Probabilities in reference to question of finding fossils all three major levels (PMC) a place


I had a debate with Tony Reed (upcoming in sorted version) in which he had said "since the chances are basically nil to get a fossil preserved anyway, just forget about finding it in two or three major levels".

Let us get to Pascal's Triangle. First of all, very unrealistically, as it works out with an equal chance of finding or not finding a fossil at any given level.

 0 levels 1 level 2 levels 3 levels
1 level 1 1
2 levels 1 2 1
3 levels 1 3 3 1


Now, how about 1 chance in 4? 1 chance for, 3 chances against finding a fossil at any given level?

 0 levels 1 level 2 levels 3 levels
1 level 3 1
2 levels 9 6 1
3 levels 27 27 9 1


Notice a thing? In first, unrealistic, example, the 1:1 for each level came back as 3:3 for 1 vs 2 levels out of three. In second, equally unrealistic, or nearly so, example, the 3:1 for each level came back as 27:9 for 1 vs 2 levels out of three.

Now, what if there were one chance in 10 or in 100? That would mean 9:1 or 99:1 against a fossil being there in each level.

 0 levels 1 level 2 levels 3 levels
1 level 9 1
2 levels 81 18 1
3 levels 729 243 27 1


Before reaching third line, I needed to do some counting:

 0 = 81 1 = 18 2 = 1
not next * 9 729 162 9
next * 1 81 18 1
 0 levels 1 level 2 levels 3 levels
 729 162 9
  81 18 1
 729 243 27 1


And for 99:1 against a fossil?

 0 levels 1 level 2 levels 3 levels
1 level 99 1
2 levels 9801 198 1
3 levels 970299 29403 297 1


Before reaching third line, I needed to do some counting:

 0 = 9801 1 = 198 2 = 1
not next * 99 970299 19602 99
next * 1 9801 198 1
 0 levels 1 level 2 levels 3 levels
 970299 19602 99
  9801 198 1
 970299 29403 297 1


For 9:1 per level we get 243:27 = 9:1 for one vs two levels.

For 99:1 per level we get 29403:297 = 99:1 for one vs two levels.

The curious thing is, when we check my older post "How Fossils Superpose"*, and look at how many you have per pure Palaeozoic, pure Mesozoic, pure Cenozoic, and how many you have on two of these levels, we are seeing a ratio not too far from 99:1 - as far as modern, Geological and Palaeontological classifications are concerned.

If these were correct, one would expect also to find about 1 in 99 places a fossil at each level.

But the problem is - does it really look like a superposition of faunas where we find two of the three major levels? No. In Yacoraite we see rather same fauna below and above a K/T boundary. In Karoo we find the Permian/Palaeozoic and Triassic/Jurassic/Mesozoic faunas ... side by side. As if they were in reality different faunas from same Pre-Flood world.

Hans Georg Lundahl
Paris XV
XI Lord's Day after Pentecost
31.VII.2016

* Creation vs. Evolution : How do Fossils Superpose?
http://creavsevolu.blogspot.com/2013/11/how-do-fossils-superpose.html

Sorry for about a day, or near two, when the footnote was attached to the calendar numeric date, corrected Tuesday./HGL


This post first appeared on Creation Vs Evolution, please read the originial post: here

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Probabilities in reference to question of finding fossils all three major levels (PMC) a place

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